HKU POP SITE releases figures of people's satisfaction with Legco members in general, the Hong Kong Police Force and the PLA Hong Kong GarrisonBack

Press Release on April 22, 2010

| Abstract | Latest Figures | Opinion Daily | Commentary | Future Release (Tentative) |
| Detailed Findings (People's Satisfaction with the Performance of Members of the Fourth HKSAR Legislative Council) |
| Detailed Findings (People's Satisfaction with the Performance of the People's Liberation Army Hong Kong Garrison) |
| Detailed Findings (People's Satisfaction with the Performance of the Hong Kong Police Force) |

Abstract

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong interviewed 1,012 Hong Kong people between 23 and 25 March by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. The survey shows that people's dissatisfaction with the overall performance of Legco members continues to climb after it surged 13 percentage points three months ago, now with a net popularity of negative 31 percentage points, probably due to the row over political reform and the collective resignation of councillors. As for the two disciplinary forces, people's satisfaction with the Police Force has significantly increased by 4 percentage points, back to the level registered in June last year. Its net popularity now stands at positive 61 percentage points. Meanwhile, people's satisfaction with the PLA Hong Kong Garrison has receded significantly by 9 percentage points, while its dissatisfaction rate continues to remain near zero. Its net popularity now stands at positive 53 percentage points. As for the reasons affecting the ups and downs of various figures, we leave it to our readers to form their own judgment using detailed records displayed in our "Opinion Daily". It should be noted, however, that people's satisfaction with Legco members in general includes those returned by geographical as well as functional constituencies. It is not a direct measurement of individual Legco members' performance. The maximum sampling error of the survey is between +/-2 and +/-3 percentage points at 95% confidence level, response rate being 69%.

Points to note:
[1] The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
[2] The sample size of this survey is 1,012 successful interviews, not 1,012 x 69.3% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
[3] The maximum sampling error of all satisfaction and dissatisfaction rates is between +/-2 and +/-3 percentage points at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level".
[4] When quoting percentages of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places.
[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

Latest Figures

POP today releases on schedule via the "POP SITE" the latest figures of people's satisfaction with the performance of Legislative Council members in general, the People's Liberation Army Hong Kong Garrison (PLA) and the Hong Kong Police Force (HKPF). As a general practice, all figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2009 year-end. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:

Date of survey	Overall sample size	Response rate	Sampling error of percentages ^[6]
23-25/3/10	1,012	69.3%	+/-3%

[6] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.

Recent figures are summarized as follows:

Date of survey	9-11/3/09	16-21/6/09	14-17/9/09	14-17/12/09	23-25/3/2010	Latest change
Sample base	1,019	1,012	1,004	1,000	1,012	--
Overall response rate	65.2%	69.0%	65.4%	70.5%	69.3%	--
Finding /Sampling error	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding and Error ^[7]	--
Satisfaction rate of overall performance of Legco members ^[8]	21%[9]	21%	21%	18%^[9]	18%+/-2%	--
Dissatisfaction rate of overall performance of Legco members ^[8]	40%^[9]	35%^[9]	34%	47%^[9]	49%+/-3%	+2%
Satisfaction rate of HKPF ^[8]	66%^[9]	71%^[9]	63%^[9]	67%^[9]	71%+/-3%	+4%^[9]
Dissatisfaction rate of HKPF ^[8]	12%^[9]	7% ^[9]	13%^[9]	12%	10%+/-2%	-2%
Satisfaction rate of PLA ^[8]	61%^[9]	58%	59%	65%^[9]	56%+/-3%	-9%^[9]
Dissatisfaction rate of PLA ^[8]	2%	2%	2%	2%	3%+/-1%	+1%

[7] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[8] Collapsed from a 5-point scale.
[9] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

Results of survey conducted in late-March revealed that 18% of the respondents were satisfied with the overall performance of the Legco members, and 49% were dissatisfied. As for the performance of the HKPF, 71% were satisfied while 10% were dissatisfied. Besides, 56% were satisfied with the performance of the PLA stationed in Hong Kong, whereas only 3% were dissatisfied.

Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to "Opinion Daily" as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from December 14 to 17, 2009 while this survey was conducted from March 23 to 25, 2010. In between these two surveys, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

18/3/10	The first minimum wage level will be set in July.
15/3/10	The government launches all remaining flats of Home Ownership Scheme and sandwich-class homes to meet the housing demand.
5/3/10	Many newspapers report and discuss the National People's Congress.
25/2/10	New residential land will be provided by the Government for auction.
30/1/10	The government starts checking all 4,000 old buildings in Hong Kong in the coming month.
27/1/10	The Legislative Council meeting is aborted due to the walkout of pro-establishment camp.
26/1/10	Five pan-democratic Legislative councillors resign.
16/1/10	The Express Rail Link funding is passed.
13/1/10	Two suspects are arrested in connection with the acid attack in Causeway Bay last month.
9/1/10	Acid attack again at Temple Street night market.
1/1/10	30,000 people air their grievances at the Liaison office of the Central People's Government.
25/12/09	Liu Xiaobo is sentenced to 11 years in prison for "incitement to subvert state power".
19/12/09	President Hu Jintao arrives Macau to attend the 10th anniversary ceremony, while some reporters from Hong Kong are banned to enter Macau.

Commentary

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "Our survey shows that people's dissatisfaction with the overall performance of Legco members continues to climb after it surged 13 percentage points three months ago, now with a net popularity of negative 31 percentage points, probably due to the row over political reform and the collective resignation of councillors. (Note: The net popularity of the SAR Government for the same period is negative 5 percentage points, as published on April 8.) As for the two disciplinary forces, people's satisfaction with the Police Force has significantly increased by 4 percentage points, back to the level registered in June last year. Its net popularity now stands at positive 61 percentage points. Meanwhile, people's satisfaction with the PLA Hong Kong Garrison has receded significantly by 9 percentage points, while its dissatisfaction rate continues to remain near zero. Its net popularity now stands at positive 53 percentage points. As for the reasons affecting the ups and downs of various figures, we leave it to our readers to form their own judgment using detailed records displayed in our "Opinion Daily". It should be noted, however, that people's satisfaction with Legco members in general includes those returned by geographical as well as functional constituencies. It is not a direct measurement of individual Legco members' performance."

Future Release (Tentative)

April 27, 2010 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Popularity of Executive Council members, performance of media