HKU POP SITE releases latest ratings of top 10 political figures in Mainland China and Taiwan, and the latest findings of people's appraisal of past Chinese leadersBack

The latest surveys conducted by the Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong shows that compared to 6 months ago, there is not much change in the list of top 10 cross-strait political figures, and the names are exactly the same. On the awareness level, the split across the strait remains 50:50, meaning that the structure is very stable. In terms of support rating, the popularity ratings of 4 figures have increased while the other 6 have dropped. Among them, those with significant increases include Chen Shui-bian at the bottom and Wen Jiabao at the top, while Li Peng, Lien Chan and Lee Teng-hui have registered significant drops. As for the relative ranking, Wen Jiabao continues to top the list. Zhu Rongji and Hu Jintao have swapped positions to rank 2nd and 3rd, while Lee Teng-hui and Li Peng also swapped positions to occupy the 7th and 8th places. Other positions have remained unchanged. Regarding people's appraisal of the merits and faults of past Chinese leaders Deng Xiaoping, Zhao Ziyang and Yang Shangkun, there was not much change over the past six months either. Deng's net merit now stands at positive 70 percentage points, while Zhao stands at positive 51 percentage points and Yang stands at negative 6 percentage points. The sampling errors of rating figures registered fall between +/-1.0 and +/-1.9 while the maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-3 percentage points. The response rate of the surveys is between 64% and 69%.

Points to note:
[1] The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
[2] The sample size of the first stage naming survey on top 10 political figures in Mainland China and Taiwan is 1,005 successful interviews, not 1,005 x 64.2% response rate, while that of the second stage rating survey is 1,004 successful interviews, not 1,004 x 66.4% response rate. As for the survey on people's appraisal of past Chinese leaders, the sample size is 1,012 successful interviews, not 1,012 x 69.3% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
[3] The maximum sampling error of all percentages is +/-3 percentage points at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-1.9 and sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level」.
[4] When quoting percentages of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places in order to match the precision level of the figures.
[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

POP today releases via the POP Site the latest ratings of the top 10 political figures in Mainland China and Taiwan, and the latest findings of people's appraisal of past Chinese leaders. All the figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2009 year-end.

Herewith the contact information for the latest survey on top 10 political figures in Mainland China and Taiwan:

Date of survey	Overall sample size	Response rate	Sampling error of percentages / ratings[6]
1-3/3/2010 (First stage naming survey)	1,005	64.2%	+/-3%
9-15/3/2010 (Second stage rating survey)	1,004	66.4%	+/-1.9

[6] Calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.

The research design of our "Top 10 political figures of Mainland China and Taiwan" has been explained in detail under "Survey Method" in our corresponding web site. The top political figures listed in our latest survey were all those who obtained highest unprompted mentions in our first stage naming survey conducted in early March. In that survey, respondents could name, unaided, up to 10 political figures whom they knew best. Ma Ying-jeou, Wen Jiabao, Hu Jintao, Chen Shui-bian and Jiang Zemin were mentioned most frequently. Please refer to the relevant table for the rest of the list. The 12 most frequently mentioned political figures were then entered into the second stage of the survey conducted in the first half of March, during which respondents were asked to rate each political figure in turn using a 0-100 scale. 0 indicates absolutely no support, 100 indicates absolute support, and 50 means half-half. After calculation, the bottom 2 political figures in terms of recognition rate were dropped; the remaining 10 were then ranked according to their support ratings attained to become the top 10 political figures. For easy reference, the POP Site has already displayed the results of all naming surveys conducted since June 1997. Recent ratings of the top political figures in Mainland China and Taiwan are summarized as follows:

Date of survey	23-29/9/2008	17-18/3/2009	24-30/9/2009	9-15/3/2010		Latest change
Sample base	1,027	1,007	1,000	1,004		--
Overall response rate	65.9%	63.3%	66.2%	66.4%		--
Latest finding / Recognition rate	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding and error[7]	Recognition rate	--
Wen Jiabao	79.7 {1} [9]	79.6 {1}	77.5 {1} [9]	78.6 {1} +/-1.0	98.3%	+1.1[9]
Zhu Rongji	75.0 {2} [9]	74.3 {3}	75.4 {3}	76.0 {2} +/-1.1	93.4%	+0.6
Hu Jintao	74.9 {3} [9]	76.8 {2} [9]	75.7 {2} [9]	75.9 {3} +/-1.1	98.0%	+0.2
Ma Ying-jeou	64.5 {5} [9]	64.7 {4}	62.3 {4} [9]	61.5 {4} +/-1.1	94.7%	-0.8
Jiang Zemin	58.9 {6} [9]	62.4 {5} [9]	61.0 {5}	60.6 {5} +/-1.4	94.4%	-0.4
Lien Chan	51.3 {7}	54.9 {6} [9]	52.9 {6} [9]	51.0 {6} +/-1.4	82.1%	-1.9[9]
Lee Teng-hui	38.8 {9} [9]	39.0 {8}	43.4 {8} [9]	41.6 {7} +/-1.6	87.4%	-1.8[9]
Li Peng	45.4 {8}	45.3 {7}	44.1 {7}	41.4 {8} +/-1.7	85.5%	-2.7[9]
Lu Hsiu-lien	--	32.6 {9}	35.4 {9} [9]	34.6 {9} +/-1.5	86.4%	-0.8
Chen Shui-bian	15.6 {10} [9]	15.0 {10}	13.8 {10}	16.7 {10} +/-1.3	96.3%	+2.9[9]
Xi Jinping	63.3[8][9]	63.1[8]	62.7[8]	65.5[8] +/-1.2	77.0%	+2.8[9]
Li Keqiang	--	--	--	52.5[8] +/-1.9	44.9%	--
Wu Bangguo	--	--	55.3[8]	--	--	--
Wu Yi	69.7{4}[9]	68.6[8]	--	--	--	--
Zeng Qinghong	63.0[8][9]	--	--	--	--	--

[7] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-1.9 at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site. {} Number in square brackets indicates rankings.
[8] Ratings with recognition rates not reaching top 10 in either stage of survey are not listed.
[9] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

Survey conducted in the first half of March revealed that, among the ten most well-known political figures in Mainland China and Taiwan, in terms of popularity rating, Wen Jiabao topped the list, attaining 78.6 marks. The 2nd and 3rd ranks went to Zhu Rongji and Hu Jintao with respective scores of 76.0 and 75.9 marks. Ma Ying-jeou, Jiang Zemin and Lien Chan occupied the 4th to 6th ranks with 61.5, 60.6 and 51.0 marks correspondingly. The 7th to 10th ranks fell to Lee Teng-hui, Li Peng, Lu Hsiu-lien and Chen Shui-bian with respective scores of 41.6, 41.4, 34.6 and 16.7 marks. For this latest survey, Xi Jinping and Li Keqiang obtained support ratings of 65.5 and 52.5 marks respectively, but they were dropped due to their relatively low recognition rates. The mean score obtained by the top 5 political figures was 70.5 marks, while that for the top 10 was 53.8 marks. As for the overall ratings ranked according to results obtained over the past 18 calendar months are tabulated as follows:

Date of survey	23-29/9/2008	17-18/3/2009	24-30/9/2009	9-15/3/2010	No. of times on top 10	Average rating[10]	Overall ranking[11]
Wen Jiabao	79.7	79.6	77.5	78.6	4	78.9	1
Hu Jintao	74.9	76.8	75.7	75.9	4	75.8	2
Zhu Rongji	75.0	74.3	75.4	76.0	4	75.2	3
Ma Ying-Jeou	64.5	64.7	62.3	61.5	4	63.3	4
Jiang Zemin	58.9	62.4	61.0	60.6	4	60.7	5
Lien Chan	51.3	54.9	52.9	51.0	4	52.5	6
Li Peng	45.4	45.3	44.1	41.4	4	44.1	7
Lee Teng-hui	38.8	39.0	43.4	41.6	4	40.7	8
Chen Shui-bian	15.6	15.0	13.8	16.7	4	15.3	9
Lu Hsiu-lien	[12]	32.6	35.4	34.6	3	34.2	10
Wu Yi	69.7	[12]	[12]	[12]	1	69.7	11

[10] "Average rating" is the average of all ratings obtained by political figures over the past 18 months.
[11] "Overall ranking" is first determined by their number of times on top 10, and then their average ratings.
[12] Ratings with recognition rates not reaching top 10 in either stage of survey are not listed.

The overall rankings in the past 18 months showed that nine political figures have been on the list for four times. They are Wen Jiabao in the top rank achieving an average rating of 78.9 marks, Hu Jintao, Zhu Rongji, Ma Ying-jeou and Jiang Zemin who ranked 2nd to 5th and attained 75.8, 75.2, 63.3 and 60.7 marks correspondingly, Lien Chan, Li Peng, Lee Teng-hui and Chen Shui-bian who ranked 6th to 9th with respective scores of 52.5, 44.1, 40.7 and 15.3 marks. Lu Hsiu-lien has been on the list for three times with 34.2 marks and ranked the 10th. Wu Yi has been on the list once with 69.7 marks at the 11th place.

Herewith the contact information for the survey on people's appraisal of past Chinese leaders:

Date of survey	Sample base	Overall response rate	Sampling error of percentages[13]
23-25/3/2010	1,012	69.3%	+/-3%

[13] Calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.

As for respondents' appraisals of the merits and faults of past Chinese leaders, POP has been tracking people's appraisal of these leaders since 1995, but our series on Mao Zedong, Zhou Enlai and Chiang Kai Shek stopped in 2003, while that on more recently deceased leaders Zhao Ziyang, Yang Shangkun and Deng Xiaoping continued. The most recent results are summarized as follows:

Date of survey	12-14/3/2008	10-12/9/2008	9-11/3/2009	7-13/9/2009	23-25/3/2010	Latest change
Sample base	1,017	1,006	1,019	1,002	1,012	--
Overall response rate	65.8%	62.2%	65.2%	69.7%	69.3%	--
Latest finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding and error[14]	--
Deng Xiaoping had accrued more merits	77%[15]	80%	83%[15]	74%[15]	74%+/-3%	--
Deng Xiaoping had accrued more faults	3%	3%	3%	3%	4%+/-1%	+1%
Zhao Ziyang had accrued more merits	48%[15]	51%	52%	54%	55%+/-3%	+1%
Zhao Ziyang had accrued more faults	4%	3%	3%	4%	4%+/-1%	--
Yang Shangkun had accrued more merits	14%[15]	17%[15]	16%	14%	14%+/-2%	--
Yang Shangkun had accrued more faults	16%[15]	15%	17%	20%	20%+/-3%	--

[14] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[15] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

According to our latest survey, those considering Deng Xiaoping and Zhao Ziyang have accrued more merits than faults in the development of China accounted for 74% and 55% respectively. For Yang Shangkun, 14% of the respondents thought he has accrued more merits than faults, 20% found more faults than merits in Yang.

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to "Opinion Daily" as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey of some items was conducted from September 7 to 13, 2009 while the latest survey was conducted from March 23 to 25, 2010. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

23/3/10	Search engine Google departs from Mainland China in area of searching service.
14/3/10	Premier Wen Jiabao elaborates on 'deep-rooted conflicts' in Hong Kong.
5/3/10	Many newspapers report and discuss the National People's Congress.
15/1/10	Beijing Government issues warning on the de facto referendum
27/12/09	Wen Jiabao reveals policies on Chinese economic development.
25/12/09	Liu Xiaobo is sentenced to 11 years in prison for "incitement to subvert state power".
19/12/09	President Hu Jintao arrives Macau to attend the 10th anniversary ceremony, while some reporters from Hong Kong are banned to enter Macau.
7/12/09	Central Economic Work Conference concludes that China will continue its proactive fiscal policy and a moderately easy monetary policy.
17/11/09	China and the US issue a joint statement to deepen the strategic partnership.
14/11/09	President Hu Jintao gives his backing for the policy direction of CE Donald Tsang's Policy Address.
20/10/09	Many newspapers on the following day keep on reporting and discussing the plan of Guangzhou-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Express Rail Link.
1/10/09	The People's Republic of China celebrates its 60th anniversary.
11/9/09	Taiwan court convicts former President Chen Shui-bian's family for corruption charges.
9/9/09	Many newspapers on the following day report and discuss the beating of three Hong Kong journalists by police in Xinjiang.

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "Compared to 6 months ago, there is not much change in the list of top 10 cross-strait political figures, and the names are exactly the same. On the awareness level, the split across the strait remains 50:50, meaning that the structure is very stable. In terms of support rating, the popularity ratings of 4 figures have increased while the other 6 have dropped. Among them, those with significant increases include Chen Shui-bian at the bottom and Wen Jiabao at the top, while Li Peng, Lien Chan and Lee Teng-hui have registered significant drops. As for the relative ranking, Wen Jiabao continues to top the list. Zhu Rongji and Hu Jintao have swapped positions to rank 2nd and 3rd, while Lee Teng-hui and Li Peng also swapped positions to occupy the 7th and 8th places. Other positions have remained unchanged. It should be noted that our list of 'top 10 cross-strait political figures' only include those best known to the Hong Kong public, ranked according to their support ratings. Other political figures may have very high or low support ratings, but they are excluded from the list because they are relatively less well-known. Regarding people's appraisal of the merits and faults of past Chinese leaders Deng Xiaoping, Zhao Ziyang and Yang Shangkun, there was not much change over the past six months either. Deng's net merit now stands at positive 70 percentage points, while Zhao stands at positive 51 percentage points and Yang stands at negative 6 percentage points. As for the reasons affecting the ups and downs of different figures, we leave it to our readers to form their own judgment using the detailed records displayed in our 'Opinion Daily'."

• April 20, 2010 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Popularity figures of CE and Principal Officials