HKU POP SITE releases the latest popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang and the HKSAR GovernmentBack

Press Release on April 8, 2010

Abstract

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong interviewed 1,012 Hong Kong people between 23 and 25 March 2010 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. The survey shows that compared to two weeks ago, the approval rate of CE Donald Tsang has dropped significantly by 4 percentage points, while his support rating has slightly dropped by 0.6 marks. CE's net popularity now stands at negative 8 percentage points. Compared to a month ago, the satisfaction rate of the SAR Government has not changed much, its net popularity now stands at negative 5 percentage points. As for the five specific policy areas, compared to 3 months ago, people's satisfaction rate over the government's handling of its relation with the Central Government has plunged 10 percentage points, going back to the level registered 6 months ago, while dissatisfaction rate has gone up significantly by 8 percentage points. Moreover, people's dissatisfaction rate over the government's performance in protection of human rights has also increased significantly by 6 percentage points, while their dissatisfaction over government performance in maintaining economic prosperity, developing democracy, and improving people's livelihood have all gone up slightly. It should be noted that among all five indicators of government performance, with the exception of maintaining economic prosperity, dissatisfaction rates are now at record high since January 2005. The net satisfaction rates of the five indicators are: relationship with the Central Government at positive 28 percentage points, protection of human rights at positive 8 percentage points, maintaining economic prosperity at positive 1 percentage point, developing democracy at negative 14 percentage points and then improving people's livelihood at negative 26 percentage points. The maximum sampling error of all percentages is +/-3 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figure is +/-1.3 marks. The response rate of the survey is 69%.

Points to note:

[1] The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
[2] The sample size of this survey is 1,012 successful interviews, not 1,012 x 69.3% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
[3] The maximum sampling error of all percentages is +/-3 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures needs another calculation. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-1.3 and sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level".
[4] When quoting percentages of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used, in order to match the precision level of the figures.
[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

Latest Figures

POP today releases on schedule via the "POP SITE" the latest popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang and the HKSAR Government. As a general practice, all figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2009 year-end. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:

Date of survey	Overall sample size	Response rate	Sampling error of percentages^[6]
23-25/3/2010	1,012	69.3%	+/-3%

[6] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Sampling errors of ratings are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.

Recent popularity figures of Donald Tsang and people's satisfaction of the overall performance of the HKSAR Government are summarized as follows:

Date of survey	29/1-2/2/2010	24/2/2010	22-27/2/2010	1-3/3/2010	23-25/3/2010	Latest Change
Sample base	1,003	1,003^[10]	1,021	1,005	1,012	--
Overall response rate	65.4%	65.9%	69.9%	64.2%	69.3%	--
Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding and error^[7]	--
Rating of CE Donald Tsang	51.6	54.4^[9]	53.0^[9]	53.1	52.5 +/-1.3	-0.6
Vote of confidence in CE Donald Tsang	33%^[9]	38%^[9]	36%^[9]	42%^[9]	38% +/-3%	-4%^[9]
Vote of no confidence in CE Donald Tsang	46%	41%^[9]	43%^[9]	42%^[9]	46% +/-3%	+4%^[9]
Satisfaction rate of SARG performance^[8]	--	--	30%	--	30% +/-3%	--
Dissatisfaction rate of SARG performance^[8]	--	--	34%^[9]	--	35% +/-3%	+1%

[7] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.3, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[8] Collapsed from a 5-point scale.
[9] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.
[10] The survey was conducted on February 24, and the sub-sample sizes of questions on CE's support rating and hypothetical voting were 680 and 672 respectively.

The latest survey conducted in the late-March showed that, CE Donald Tsang scored 52.5 marks, and 38% supported him as the Chief Executive while another 46% opposed. Regarding people's appraisal of the overall performance of the HKSAR Government, the latest figures revealed that 30% were satisfied, whereas 35% were dissatisfied. Recent figures on people's appraisal of the five specific policy areas of the HKSAR Government are tabulated as follows:

Date of survey	9-11/3/2009	16-21/6/2009	14-17/9/2009	14-17/12/2009	23-25/3/2010	Latest Change
Sample base	1,019	1,012	1,004	1,000	1,012	--
Overall response rate	65.2%	69.0%	65.4%	70.5%	69.3%	--
Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding and error^[11]	--
Relation with the Central Government: Satisfaction rate^[12]	58%	56%	50%^[13]	60%^[13]	50% +/-3%	-10%^[13]
Relation with the Central Government: Dissatisfaction rate^[12]	13%	15%	20%^[13]	14%^[13]	22% +/-3%	+8%^[13]
Protecting human rights and freedom: Satisfaction rate^[12]	45%	40%^[13]	43%	45%	42% +/-3%	-3%
Protecting human rights and freedom: Dissatisfaction rate^[12]	23%	28%^[13]	29%	28%	34% +/-3%	+6%^[13]
Maintaining economic prosperity: Satisfaction rate^[12]	24%	35%^[13]	37%	37%	35% +/-3%	-2%
Maintaining economic prosperity: Dissatisfaction rate^[12]	42%^[13]	27%^[13]	28%	33%^[13]	34% +/-3%	+1%
Pace of democratic development: Satisfaction rate^[12]	32%	28%^[13]	28%	32%^[13]	29% +/-3%	-3%
Pace of democratic development: Dissatisfaction rate^[12]	36%^[13]	38%	41%	42%	43% +/-3%	+1%
Improving people's livelihood: Satisfaction rate^[12]	23%	30%^[13]	28%	24%^[13]	23% +/-3%	-1%
Improving people's livelihood: Dissatisfaction rate^[12]	45%	35%^[13]	40%^[13]	47%^[13]	49% +/-3%	+2%

[11] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[12] Collapsed from a 5-point scale.
[13] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

Of the 5 specific policy areas, people were most satisfied with the government's handling of its relation with the Central Government, with a satisfaction percentage of 50%. The government's performance in protecting human rights followed, attaining a satisfaction percentage of 42%. Finally, a respective of 35%, 29% and 23% of the respondents were satisfied with the government's performance in maintaining economic prosperity, developing democracy as well as improving people's livelihood.

Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to "Opinion Daily" as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey of some items was conducted from December 14 to 17, 2009 while this survey was conducted from March 23 to 25, 2010. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

20/3/10	Donald Tsang expresses concern over the development of property price.
18/3/10	The first minimum wage level will be set in July.
15/3/10	The government launches all remaining flats of Home Ownership Scheme and sandwich-class homes to meet the housing demand.
8/3/10	One fireman dies and three more injure when battling a fire in Cheung Sha Wan.
24/2/10	Financial Secretary John Tsang Chun-wah delivers a budget speech.
1/2/10	The Hong Kong economy may be affected by the flow of hot money in the market.
29/1/10	Three killed, two injured and two missing in the collapse of an old building at 45 Ma Tau Wai Road.
16/1/10	The Express Rail Link funding is passed.
11/1/10	Civic Party and League of Social Democrats unveil preliminary details of their resignation in 5 geographical constituencies.
1/1/10	30,000 people air their grievances at the Liaison office of the Central People's Government.
28/12/09	Many newspapers report and discuss on the following day Donald Tsang's duty visit to Beijing.
25/12/09	Liu Xiaobo is sentenced to 11 years in prison for "incitement to subvert state power".
19/12/09	President Hu Jintao arrives Macau to attend the 10th anniversary ceremony, while some reporters from Hong Kong are banned to enter Macau.

Commentary

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of POP, observed, "Our latest survey shows that compared to two weeks ago, the approval rate of CE Donald Tsang has dropped significantly by 4 percentage points, while his support rating has slightly dropped by 0.6 marks. CE's net popularity now stands at negative 8 percentage points. Compared to a month ago, the satisfaction rate of the SAR Government has not changed much, its net popularity now stands at negative 5 percentage points. As for the five specific policy areas, compared to 3 months ago, people's satisfaction rate over the government's handling of its relation with the Central Government has plunged 10 percentage points, going back to the level registered 6 months ago, while dissatisfaction rate has gone up significantly by 8 percentage points. Moreover, people's dissatisfaction rate over the government's performance in protection of human rights has also increased significantly by 6 percentage points, while their dissatisfaction over government performance in maintaining economic prosperity, developing democracy, and improving people's livelihood have all gone up slightly. It should be noted that among all five indicators of government performance, with the exception of maintaining economic prosperity, dissatisfaction rates are now at record high since January 2005. The net satisfaction rates of the five indicators are: relationship with the Central Government at positive 28 percentage points, protection of human rights at positive 8 percentage points, maintaining economic prosperity at positive 1 percentage point, developing democracy at negative 14 percentage points and then improving people's livelihood at negative 26 percentage points. As for the reasons affecting the ups and downs of these figures, we leave it to our readers to form their own judgment using detailed records displayed in our 'Opinion Daily'."

Future Release (Tentative)

Apr 13, 2010 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Appraisal of past Chinese leaders, ratings of political figures in Mainland China and Taiwan