HKU POP SITE releases the latest trust and confidence indicatorsBack

Press Release on March 18, 2010

| Abstract | Latest Figures | Opinion Daily | Commentary | Future Release (Tentative) |
| Detailed Findings (People's Trust in the HKSAR Government/People's Trust in the Taiwan Government) |
| Detailed Findings (People's Trust in the Beijing Central Government) |
| Detailed Findings (People's Confidence in HK's Future/People's Confidence in China's Future) |
| Detailed Findings (People's Confidence in "One Country, Two Systems") |

Abstract

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong interviewed 1,005 Hong Kong people between 1 and 3 March, 2010 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. Our survey finds that compared to the end of last year, people's positive trust figures in the HKSAR, Central and Taiwan governments have all remained stable, but the distrust figures have significantly increased by 6, 8, and 8 percentage points correspondingly, thereby pulling down all net trust levels, which now stand at positive 20, positive 19, and negative 33 percentage points correspondingly. As for the confidence indicators, all positive figures of people's confidence in the future of Hong Kong, China and "one country, two systems" have not changed much. They remain high, and people's net confidence in the future of Hong Kong, China and "one country, two systems" now stand at positive 41, 76 and 33 percentage points respectively. However, it should be noted that the negative figures of people's trust in the Central government, and their confidence in "one country, two systems", have both gone up to new highs since 2004. The maximum sampling error of all percentages is between +/-2 and +/-3 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the response rate of the survey is 64%.

Points to note:
[1] The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
[2] The sample size of this survey is 1,005 successful interviews, not 1,005 x 64.2% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
[3] The maximum sampling error of all percentages is between +/-2 and +/-3 percentage points at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level".
[4] When quoting percentages of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places in order to match the precision level of the figures.
[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

Latest Figures

POP today releases on schedule via the POP Site the latest findings on people's trust in the HKSAR, Beijing Central and Taiwan Governments, their confidence in Hong Kong's future, China's future and "one country, two systems". As a general practice, all figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2009 year end. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:

Date of survey	Overall sample size	Response rate	Sampling error of percentages^[6]
1-3/3/2010	1,005	64.2%	+/-3%

[6] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.

Recent popularity figures of SAR, Beijing Central and Taiwan Governments, and people's confidence in the future are summarized below:

Date of survey	16-21/6/09	25-30/8/09	20-30/10/09	28-30/12/09	1-3/3/2010	Latest Change
Sample base	1,012	1,000	1,005	1,028	1,005	--
Overall response rate	69.0%	64.9%	73.1%	66.5%	64.2%	--
Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding & error^[7]	--
Trust in HKSAR Government^[8]	58%^[9]	46%^[9]	45%	48%	46%+/-3%	-2%
Distrust in HKSAR Government^[8]	14%^[9]	14%	28%^[9]	20%^[9]	26%+/-3%	+6%^[9]
Trust in Beijing Government^[8]	51%^[9]	48%	52%^[9]	49%	48%+/-3%	-1%
Distrust in Beijing Government^[8]	17%^[9]	16%	19%^[9]	21%	29%+/-3%	+8%^[9]
Trust in Taiwan Government^[8]	18%	17%	22%^[9]	14%^[9]	16%+/-2%	+2%
Distrust in Taiwan Government^[8]	29%^[9]	35%^[9]	38%	41%	49%+/-3%	+8%^[9]
Confidence in HK's future	72%	71%	67%^[9]	68%	68%+/-3%	--
No-confidence in HK's future	23%	24%	26%	26%	27%+/-3%	+1%
Confidence in China's future	87%^[9]	88%	87%	86%	86%+/-2%	--
No-confidence in China's future	8%	8%	8%	9%	10%+/-2%	+1%
Confidence in "one country, two systems"	72%	71%	67%^[9]	66%	64%+/-3%	-2%
No-confidence in "one country, two systems"	21%	25%^[9]	26%	28%	31%+/-3%	+3%

[7] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[8] Collapsed from a 5-point scale.
[9] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

Survey conducted in early March revealed that 46% of the respondents trusted the HKSAR Government, 48% trusted the Beijing Central Government, and 16% trusted the Taiwan Government. On the other hand, 68% of the respondents had confidence in Hong Kong's future and 86% had confidence in China's future, while 64% of the respondents were confident in "one country, two systems".

Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to "Opinion Daily" as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from December 28 to 30, 2009 while this survey was conducted from March 1 to 3, 2010. In between these two surveys, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

24/2/10	Financial Secretary John Tsang Chun-wah delivers a budget speech.
21/2/10	Hong Kong-made film wins the Crystal Bear award for best feature film in the Berlin Film Festival.
15/2/10	Fortune stick bodes moderate luck for Hong Kong in the Year of the Tiger, with difficulties expected in the beginning and then improvement.
1/2/10	The Hong Kong economy may be affected by the flow of hot money in the market.
26/1/10	Five pan-democratic Legislative councillors resign.
24/1/10	Many newspapers report and discuss on the following day the resignation of five pan-democrats and its advert.
17/1/10	Many newspapers report and discuss on the following day the anti-Express Rail Link demonstration.
16/1/10	The Express Rail Link funding is passed.
15/1/10	Beijing Government issues warning on the de facto referendum
1/1/10	30,000 people air their grievances at the Liaison office of the Central People's Government.
31/12/09	Many newspapers look forward to 2010.
28/12/09	Many newspapers report and discuss on the following day Donald Tsang's duty visit to Beijing.

Commentary

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "Compared to the end of last year, people's positive trust figures in the HKSAR, Central and Taiwan governments have all remained stable, but the distrust figures have significantly increased by 6, 8, and 8 percentage points correspondingly, thereby pulling down all net trust levels, which now stand at positive 20, positive 19, and negative 33 percentage points correspondingly. As for the confidence indicators, all positive figures of people's confidence in the future of Hong Kong, China and "one country, two systems" have not changed much. They remain high, and people's net confidence in the future of Hong Kong, China and "one country, two systems" now stand at positive 41, 76 and 33 percentage points respectively. However, it should be noted that the negative figures of people's trust in the Central government, and their confidence in "one country, two systems", have both gone up to new highs since 2004. As for the reasons affecting the ups and downs of these figures, readers are welcome to make their own judgment using the detailed records displayed in our "Opinion Daily"."

Future Release (Tentative)

March 23, 2010 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Taiwan and Tibet Issues