HKU POP SITE releases popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang, Secretaries of Departments and Directors of Bureaux under the accountability system Back

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong interviewed 1,003 Hong Kong people between January 29 and February 2 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. The survey shows that compared to the last survey, CE Donald Tsang's support rating has slightly increased by 0.7 marks. However, his approval rate has dropped significantly by 4 percentage points, reaching its record low since he became CE. His net popularity now stands at negative 13 percentage points. Our biannual survey shows that 28% of the people now consider Donald Tsang doing a good job as CE while 32% think the opposite, the former of which is also record low since he became CE. All in all, CE Donald Tsang's popularity is still low. For the Secretaries of Departments, compared to one month ago, the support rating and approval rate of CS Henry Tang, FS John Tsang and SJ Wang Yan-lung have remained stable. The net approval rates of Tang, Tsang and Wong now stand at positive 27, 46 and 59 percentage points respectively. Wong Yan-lung remains to be the most popular Secretary of Department. As for the Directors of Bureaux, compared to one month ago, the approval rates of 7 among 12 Directors have gone down, 5 have gone up. Among them, those with changes in approval rate beyond sampling error include Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung, Secretary for Transport and Housing Eva Cheng and Secretary for the Civil Service Denise Yue, up by 9, 7 and 5 percentage points respectively while Secretary for Security Ambrose Lee and Secretary for Food and Health York Chow, both down 6 percentage points. It should be noted that both the approval and disapproval rates of Eva Cheng have gone up by 7 percentage points, indicating a split in opinion among those who recently developed a view on her. Among the Secretaries and Directors, only Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Stephen Lam and Secretary for Education Michael Suen register negative popularity, meaning that their disapproval rates are higher than their approval rates. Their net popularity figures now stand at negative 5 and negative 4 percentage points. According to POP's standard, no official falls under the category of "ideal" performance. Wong Yan-lung, Ambrose Lee, Matthew Cheung and John Tsang now fall under the category of "successful". York Chow, Carrie Lam, Eva Cheng, Henry Tang, Edward Yau, Donald Tsang, Michael Suen, Tsang Tak-sing and Stephen Lam can be labeled as "mediocre". Denise Yue, Ceajer Chan and Rita Lau can be labeled as "inconspicuous". No official falls under the categories of "depressing" or "disastrous". The maximum sampling error of all approval and disapproval rates is between +/-1 and +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures needs another calculation. The response rate of the survey is 65%.

Points to note:
[1] The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
[2] The sample size of this survey is 1,003 successful interviews, not 1,003 x 65.4% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
[3] The maximum sampling error of all approval and disapproval rates is between +/-1 and +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures needs another calculation. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-1.3 and sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level".
[4] When quoting percentages of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used, in order to match the precision level of the figures.
[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

 

POP today releases on schedule via POP SITE the latest popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang, Secretaries of Departments and Directors of Bureaux under the accountability system. All the figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in mid-2009. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:

Date of survey	Overall sample size	Response rate	Sampling error of percentages[6]
29/1-2/2/2010	1,003	65.4%	+/-3%

[6] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Questions using only sub-samples would have bigger sampling error. Sampling errors of ratings are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.

As different questions involve different sub-samples, the sample errors will vary accordingly. The table below briefly shows the relationship between sample size and maximum sampling errors for the readers to capture the corresponding changes:

Sample size (total sample or sub-sample)	Sampling error of percentages[7] (maximum values)	Sample size (total sample or sub-sample)	Sampling error of percentages[7] (maximum values)
1,300	+/- 2.8 %	1,350	+/- 2.7 %
1,200	+/- 2.9 %	1,250	+/- 2.8 %
1,100	+/- 3.0 %	1,150	+/- 3.0 %
1,000	+/- 3.2 %	1,050	+/- 3.1 %
900	+/- 3.3 %	950	+/- 3.2 %
800	+/- 3.5 %	850	+/- 3.4 %
700	+/- 3.8 %	750	+/- 3.7 %
600	+/- 4.1 %	650	+/- 3.9 %
500	+/- 4.5 %	550	+/- 4.3 %
400	+/- 5.0 %	450	+/- 4.7 %

[7] Based on 95% confidence interval.

"Maximum sampling errors" occur when survey figures are close to 50%. If the figures are close to 0% or 100%, the sampling error will diminish accordingly. The sampling errors of ratings, however, will depend on the distribution of the raw figures. Since January 2007, POP lists out the sampling errors of all survey figures in detail and explain them in due course. Recent popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang are summarized as follows:

Date of survey	28/11-4/12/09	14-17/12/09	4-9/1/2010	18-21/1/2010	29/1-2/2/2010	Latest Change
Sample base	1,017	1,000	1,011	1,013	1,003	--
Overall response rate	74.5%	70.5%	68.0%	66.9%	65.4%	--
Latest finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding & error[8]	--
Rating of CE Donald Tsang	51.2	53.5[9]	53.7	50.9[9]	51.6+/-1.3	+0.7
Vote of confidence in CE Donald Tsang	39%	43%[9]	41%	37%[9]	33%+/-3%	-4%[9]
Vote of no confidence in CE Donald Tsang	45%	43%	43%	44%	46%+/-3%	+2%
Satisfaction rate of Tsang's working performance[10][11]	--	--	--	--	28%+/-3%	--
Dissatisfaction rate of Tsang's working performance[10][11]	--	--	--	--	32%+/-3%	--

[8] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.3, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[9] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.
[10]The polling cycle for different items varies. Parallel comparison across items should be synchronized. The last survey was conducted in early August 2009 and the positive and negative figures were 30% and 30% back then.
[11] Collapsed from a 5-point scale.

Figures on the latest popularity ratings of the three Secretaries of Departments under the accountability system are summarized below:

Date of survey	6-11/10/09	3-7/11/09	28/11-4/12/09	4-9/1/2010	29/1-2/2/2010	Latest Change[12]
Sample base	1,010	1,007	1,017	1,011	1,003	--
Overall response rate	67.5%	71.8%	74.5%	68.0%	65.4%	--
Latest finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding & Error[13]	--
Ratings of CS Henry Tang	57.6[14]	55.6[14]	54.0[14]	54.4	54.4+/-1.2	--
Vote of confidence in CS Henry Tang	53%[14]	50%	48%	43%[14]	43%+/-3%	--
Vote of no confidence in CS Henry Tang	11%	10%	15%[14]	17%	16%+/-2%	-1%
Ratings of FS John Tsang	58.7[14]	55.8[14]	56.2	58.4[14]	58.3+/-1.1	-0.1
Vote of confidence in FS John Tsang	58%[14]	53%[14]	55%	56%	57%+/-3%	+1%
Vote of no confidence in FS John Tsang	11%[14]	13%	14%	12%	11%+/-2%	-1%
Ratings of SJ Y.L. Wong	62.1[14]	61.9	60.3[14]	60.8	61.9+/-1.1	+1.1
Vote of confidence in SJ Y.L.Wong	64%[14]	65%	66%	63%	64%+/-3%	+1%
Vote of no confidence in SJ Y.L.Wong	5%	4%	5%	6%	5%+/-1%	-1%

[12] The frequency of this series of questions is different for different questions, and also different from that of CE popularity ratings. Comparisons, if made, should be synchronized using the same intervals.
[13] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-1.2, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[14] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

Figures on the latest popularity ratings of Directors of Bureaux under the accountability system are summarized below:

Date of survey	28/11-4/12/09		4-9/1/2010		29/1-2/2/2010		Latest Change
Total sample size[15]	1,017		1,011		1,003		--
Overall response rate	74.5%		68.0%		65.4%		--
Sample base for each question/ Percentage of answer	Base	%	Base	%	Base	% and Error[16]	--
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Security Ambrose Lee	537	69%	530	68%	534	62%+/-4%	-6%[17]
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Security Ambrose Lee	537	7%	530	7%	534	11%+/-3%	+4%[17]
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung	537	51%	536	49%	532	58%+/-4%	+9%[17]
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung	537	9%	536	9%	532	8%+/-2%	-1%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Food and Health York Chow	541	50%	536	53%	529	47%+/-4%	-6%[17]
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Food and Health York Chow	541	22%	536	24%	529	26%+/-4%	+2%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Development Carrie Lam	524	49%	536	49%	539	45%+/-4%	-4%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Development Carrie Lam	524	14%	536	11%	539	16%+/-3%	+5%[17]
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Transport and Housing Eva Cheng[18]	524	33%[17]	537	38%	541	45%+/-4%	+7%[17]
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Transport and Housing Eva Cheng[18]	524	16%	537	14%	541	21%+/-4%	+7%[17]
Vote of confidence in Secretary for the Environment Edward Yau	559	36%	538	38%	544	37%+/-4%	-1%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for the Environment Edward Yau	559	24%[17]	538	16%	544	17%+/-3%	+1%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for the Civil Service Denise Yue	534	37%[17]	542	30%	551	35%+/-4%	+5%[17]
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for the Civil Service Denise Yue	534	10%	542	11%	551	12%+/-3%	+1%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan[18]	544	32%	536	34%	566	32%+/-4%	-2%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan[18]	544	11%	536	11%	566	14%+/-3%	+3%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Education Michael Suen[18]	537	33%	541	35%	546	32%+/-4%	-3%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Education Michael Suen[18]	537	34%	541	37%	546	36%+/-4%	-1%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing[18]	530	34%[17]	544	31%	533	32%+/-4%	+1%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing[18]	530	34%[17]	544	28%	533	27%+/-4%	-1%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Stephen Lam	533	31%	529	28%	528	29%+/-4%	+1%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Stephen Lam	533	33%	529	33%	528	34%+/-4%	+1%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Rita Lau	536	30%	551	27%	524	26%+/-4%	-1%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Rita Lau	536	11%	551	8%	524	13%+/-3%	+5%[17]

[15] Starting from 2006, these questions only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned, the sample size for each question also varies.
[16] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[17] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.
[18] The approval rates of Secretary for Development Carrie Lam and Secretary for Transport and Housing Eva Cheng are 45.4% and 45.0% respectively in 1 decimal place. The approval rates of Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan, Secretary for Education Michael Suen and Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing are 32.5%, 32.3% and 31.9% respectively.

The latest survey showed that, CE Donald Tsang scored 51.6 marks, and 33% supported him as the Chief Executive. Meanwhile, the corresponding ratings of CS Henry Tang, FS John Tsang and SJ Wong Yan-lung were 54.4, 58.3 and 61.9 marks and 43%, 57% and 64% would vote for their reappointment correspondingly.

As for the Directors of Bureaux, results revealed that the top approval rate fell to Secretary for Security Ambrose Lee, attaining 62%. The 2nd place belonged to Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung, with 58% approval rate. Secretary for Food and Health York Chow placed at the 3rd rank, with 47% approval rate. Secretary for Development Carrie Lam and Secretary for Transport and Housing Eva Cheng both gained 45% vote of confidence from the public and shared the 4th rank. Secretary for the Environment Edward Yau, Secretary for the Civil Service Denise Yue, Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan, Secretary for Education Michael Suen, Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing, Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Stephen Lam and Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Rita Lau ranked the 6th to 12th as they gained 37%, 35%, 32%, 32%, 32%, 29% and 26% support from the public respectively. In other words, only Ambrose Lee and Matthew Cheung scored approval rates of over 50% among all Directors of Bureaux.

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to "Opinion Daily" as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey of some items was conducted from August 4 to 10, 2009 while this survey was conducted from January 29 to February 2, 2010. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

31/1/10	Victims of the collapse of an old building in To Kwa Wan are not pleased with the arrangements of living in the temporary housing in Shek Lei.
30/1/10	The government starts checking all 4,000 old buildings in Hong Kong in the coming month.
29/1/10	Three killed, two injured and two missing in the collapse of an old building at 45 Ma Tau Wai Road.
25/1/10	Several pregnant women are suspected to suffer from side effects brought by swineflu vaccination.
18/1/10	Donald Tsang shows discontent with the anti-Express Rail Link demonstrators.
17/1/10	Many newspapers report and discuss on the following day the anti-Express Rail Link demonstration.
16/1/10	The Express Rail Link funding is passed.
14/1/10	The Chief Executive Donald Tsang Yam-kuen concedes that the government had failed to communicate with the post-1980s generation.
8/1/10	Stalemate again in fast-rail debate.
1/1/10	30,000 people air their grievances at the Liaison office of the Central People's Government.
28/12/09	Many newspapers report and discuss on the following day Donald Tsang's duty visit to Beijing.
20/11/09	The government implements three new measures to enhance the transparency of the sale of uncompleted units.
18/11/09	The government publishes the Consultation Document on the Methods for Selecting the Chief Executive and for Forming the Legislative Council in 2012.
14/11/09	President Hu Jintao gives his backing for the policy direction of CE Donald Tsang's Policy Address.

 

Note: The following commentary was written by Director of POP Robert Chung.

Our latest survey shows that compared to the last survey, CE Donald Tsang's support rating has slightly increased by 0.7 marks. However, his approval rate has dropped significantly by 4 percentage points, reaching its record low since he became CE. His net popularity now stands at negative 13 percentage points. Our biannual survey shows that 28% of the people now consider Donald Tsang doing a good job as CE while 32% think the opposite, the former of which is also record low since he became CE. All in all, CE Donald Tsang's popularity is still low.

For the Secretaries of Departments, compared to one month ago, the support rating and approval rate of CS Henry Tang, FS John Tsang and SJ Wang Yan-lung have remained stable. The net approval rates of Tang, Tsang and Wong now stand at positive 27, 46 and 59 percentage points respectively. Wong Yan-lung remains to be the most popular Secretary of Department.

As for the Directors of Bureaux, compared to one month ago, the approval rates of 7 among 12 Directors have gone down, 5 have gone up. Among them, those with changes in approval rate beyond sampling error include Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung, Secretary for Transport and Housing Eva Cheng and Secretary for the Civil Service Denise Yue, up by 9, 7 and 5 percentage points respectively while Secretary for Security Ambrose Lee and Secretary for Food and Health York Chow, both down 6 percentage points. It should be noted that both the approval and disapproval rates of Eva Cheng have gone up by 7 percentage points, indicating a split in opinion among those who recently developed a view on her.

Among the Secretaries and Directors, only Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Stephen Lam and Secretary for Education Michael Suen register negative popularity, meaning that their disapproval rates are higher than their approval rates. Their net popularity figures now stand at negative 5 and negative 4 percentage points.

According to POP's standard, no official falls under the category of "ideal" performance. Wong Yan-lung, Ambrose Lee, Matthew Cheung and John Tsang now fall under the category of "successful". York Chow, Carrie Lam, Eva Cheng, Henry Tang, Edward Yau, Donald Tsang, Michael Suen, Tsang Tak-sing and Stephen Lam can be labeled as "mediocre". Denise Yue, Ceajer Chan and Rita Lau can be labeled as "inconspicuous". No official falls under the categories of "depressing" or "disastrous". As for the reasons affecting the popularity change of these officials, readers can make their own judgment using detailed records shown in our "Opinion Daily" feature page.

The following table summarizes the grading of the principal officials for readers' easy reference:

"Ideal": those with approval rates of over 66%; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets

None

"Successful": those with approval rates of over 50%; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets

SJ Wong Yan-lung (64%); Secretary for Security Ambrose Lee Siu-kwong (62%); Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung Kin-chung (58%); FS John Tsang Chun-wah (57%)

"Mediocre": those not belonging to other 5 types; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets

Secretary for Food and Health York Chow Yat-ngok (47%); Secretary for Development Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor (45%[19]); Secretary for Transport and Housing Eva Cheng Yu-wah ( 45%[19]); CS Henry Tang Ying-yen (43%); Secretary for the Environment Edward Yau Tang-wah (37%); CE Donald Tsang Yam-kuen (33%); Secretary for Education Michael Suen Ming-yeung (32%[19]); Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing (32%[19]); Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Stephen Lam Sui-lung (29%)

"Inconspicuous": those with recognition rates of less than 50%; ranked by their approval rates; the first figure inside bracket is approval rate while the second figure is recognition rate

Secretary for the Civil Service Denise Yue Chung-yee (35%，48%); Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan Ka-keung (32%，46%); Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Rita Lau Ng Wai-lan (26%，39%)

"Depressing": those with disapproval rates of over 50%; ranked by their disapproval rates

None

"Disastrous": those with disapproval rates of over 66%; ranked by their disapproval rates

None

[19] The approval rates of Secretary for Development Carrie Lam and Secretary for Transport and Housing Eva Cheng are 45.4% and 45.0% respectively in 1 decimal place. The approval rates of Secretary for Education Michael Suen and Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing are, 32.3% and 31.9% respectively.

 

• February 18, 2010 (Thursday) 1pm to 2pm: Social and rule of law indicators