HKU POP SITE releases the latest popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang and the HKSAR GovernmentBack

Press Release on January 26, 2010

Abstract

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong interviewed 1,013 Hong Kong people between 18 and 21 January 2010 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. The survey shows that the popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang drop again. Compared to two weeks ago, the support rating of CE has dropped significantly by 2.8 marks, while his approval rate has dropped significantly by 4 percentage points, roughly down to the level registered in late October to early November of 2009. CE's net popularity now stands at negative 7 percentage points. As for the popularity of the SAR Government, compared to a month ago, its dissatisfaction rate has increased significantly by 5 percentage points, bringing down the net popularity of SARG to negative 8 percentage points. Judging from our "Opinion Daily" records, the drop in popularity of CE and SARG is probably related to the funding of the Express Rail Link. The maximum sampling error of all percentages is +/-3 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figure is +/-1.4 marks. The response rate of the survey is 67%.

Points to note:

[1] The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
[2] The sample size of this survey is 1,013 successful interviews, not 1,013 x 66.9% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
[3] The maximum sampling error of all approval and disapproval rates is +/-3 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures needs another calculation. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-1.4 and sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level".
[4] When quoting percentages of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used, in order to match the precision level of the figures.
[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

Latest Figures

POP today releases on schedule via the "POP SITE" the latest popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang and the HKSAR Government. As a general practice, all figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in mid-2009. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:

Date of survey	Overall sample size	Response rate	Sampling error of percentages[6]
18-21/1/2010	1,013	66.9%	+/-3%

[6] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Sampling errors of ratings are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.

Recent popularity figures of Donald Tsang and people's satisfaction of the overall performance of the HKSAR Government are summarized as follows:

Date of survey	19-23/11/09	28/11-4/12/09	14-17/12/09	4-9/1/2010	18-21/1/2010	Latest Change
Sample base	1,001	1,017	1,000	1,011	1,013	--
Overall response rate	76.7%	74.5%	70.5%	68.0%	66.9%	--
Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding and error[7]	--
Rating of CE Donald Tsang	51.2	51.2	53.5[9]	53.7	50.9 +/-1.4	-2.8[9]
Vote of confidence in CE Donald Tsang	39%	39%	43%[9]	41%	37% +/-3%	-4%[9]
Vote of no confidence in CE Donald Tsang	47%[9]	45%	43%	43%	44% +/-3%	+1%
Satisfaction rate of SARG performance [8]	31%[9]	--	32%	--	30% +/-3%	-2%
Dissatisfaction rate of SARG performance[8]	38%	--	33%[9]	--	38% +/-3%	+5%[9]

[7] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.4, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[8] Collapsed from a 5-point scale.
[9] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

The latest survey conducted in the second half of January showed that, CE Donald Tsang scored 50.9 marks, and 37% supported him as the Chief Executive while another 44% opposed. Regarding people's appraisal of the overall performance of the HKSAR Government, the latest figures revealed that 30% were satisfied, whereas 38% were dissatisfied.

Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to "Opinion Daily" as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey of some items was conducted from December 14 to 17, 2009 while this survey was conducted from January 18 to 21, 2010. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

18/1/10	Donald Tsang shows discontent with the anti-Express Rail Link demonstrators.
17/1/10	Many newspapers report and discuss on the following day the anti-Express Rail Link demonstration.
16/1/10	The Express Rail Link funding is passed.
15/1/10	Beijing Government issues warning on the de facto referendum.
14/1/10	The Chief Executive Donald Tsang Yam-kuen concedes that the government had failed to communicate with the post-1980s generation.
13/1/10	Two suspects are arrested in connection with the acid attack in Causeway Bay last month.
11/1/10	Civic Party and League of Social Democrats unveils preliminary details of their resignation in 5 geographical constituencies.
10/1/10	Acid attackers still out there.
9/1/10	Acid attack again at Temple Street night market.
8/1/10	Stalemate again in fast-rail debate.
1/1/10	30,000 people air their grievances at the Liaison office of the Central People's Government.
28/12/09	Many newspapers report and discuss on the following day Donald Tsang's duty visit to Beijing.
27/12/09	Wen Jiabao reveals policies on Chinese economic development.
26/12/09	The Wuhan-Guangzhou high-speed railway starts operation.
25/12/09	Liu Xiaobo is sentenced to 11 years in prison for "incitement to subvert state power".
19/12/09	President Hu Jintao arrives Macau to attend the 10th anniversary ceremony, while some reporters from Hong Kong are banned to enter Macau.

Commentary

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of POP, observed, "Our latest survey shows that the popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang drop again. Compared to two weeks ago, the support rating of CE has dropped significantly by 2.8 marks, while his approval rate has dropped significantly by 4 percentage points, roughly down to the level registered in late October to early November of 2009. CE's net popularity now stands at negative 7 percentage points. As for the popularity of the SAR Government, compared to a month ago, its dissatisfaction rate has increased significantly by 5 percentage points, bringing down the net popularity of SARG to negative 8 percentage points. Judging from our "Opinion Daily" records, the drop in popularity of CE and SARG is probably related to the funding of the Express Rail Link. As for other reasons affecting the ups and downs of these figures, we leave it up to our readers to form their own judgment using detailed records displayed in our "Opinion Daily"."

Future Release (Tentative)

February 2, 2010 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Ratings of Top 10 Legislative Councillors