HKU POP SITE releases popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang, Secretaries of Departments and Directors of Bureaux under the accountability system Back

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong interviewed 1,011 Hong Kong people between January 4 and 9 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. The survey shows that compared to the last survey, CE Donald Tsang's support rating and approval rate have remained rather stable. His net popularity now stands at negative 2 percentage points. For the Secretaries of Departments, compared to one month ago, the support rating of FS John Tsang has gone up significantly by 2.2 marks, while the approval rate of Henry Tang has gone down significantly by 5 percentage points. Both the support rating and approval rate of SJ Wong Yan-lung have remained stable. The net approval rates of Tang, Tsang and Wong now stand at positive 26, 44 and 57 percentage points respectively. Wong Yan-lung remains to be the most popular Secretary of Department. As for the Directors of Bureaux, compared to one month ago, the approval rates of 6 among 12 Directors have gone down, 5 have gone up, while 1 remains unchanged. Among them, those with changes in approval rate beyond sampling error include Secretary for the Civil Service Denise Yue, down 7 percentage points, and Secretary for Transport and Housing Eva Cheng, up by 5 percentage points. Among the Secretaries and Directors, only Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Stephen Lam and Secretary for Education Michael Suen register negative popularity, meaning that their disapproval rates are higher than their approval rates. Their net popularity figures now stand at negative 5 and negative 2 percentage points. According to POP's standard, Ambrose Lee now falls under the category of "ideal" performance. Wong Yan-lung, John Tsang, and York Chow can be labeled as "successful". Matthew Cheung, Carrie Lam, Henry Tang, Donald Tsang, Eva Cheng, Edward Yau, Michael Suen, Tsang Tak-sing and Stephen Lam can be labeled as "mediocre", Ceajer Chan, Denise Yue and Rita Lau can be labeled as "inconspicuous". No official falls under the categories of "depressing" or "disastrous". The maximum sampling error of all approval and disapproval rates is between +/-1 and +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures needs another calculation. The response rate of the survey is 68%.

Points to note:
[1] The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
[2] The sample size of this survey is 1,011 successful interviews, not 1,011 x 68.0% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
[3] The maximum sampling error of all approval and disapproval rates is between +/-1 and +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures needs another calculation. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-1.2 and sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level".
[4] When quoting percentages of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used, in order to match the precision level of the figures.
[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

 

POP today releases on schedule via POP SITE the latest popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang, Secretaries of Departments and Directors of Bureaux under the accountability system. All the figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in mid-2009. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:

Date of survey	Overall sample size	Response rate	Sampling error of percentages[6]
4-9/1/2010	1,011	68.0%	+/-3%

[6] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Questions using only sub-samples would have bigger sampling error. Sampling errors of ratings are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.

As different questions involve different sub-samples, the sample errors will vary accordingly. The table below briefly shows the relationship between sample size and maximum sampling errors for the readers to capture the corresponding changes:

Sample size (total sample or sub-sample)	Sampling error of percentages[7] (maximum values)	Sample size (total sample or sub-sample)	Sampling error of percentages[7] (maximum values)
1,300	+/- 2.8 %	1,350	+/- 2.7 %
1,200	+/- 2.9 %	1,250	+/- 2.8 %
1,100	+/- 3.0 %	1,150	+/- 3.0 %
1,000	+/- 3.2 %	1,050	+/- 3.1 %
900	+/- 3.3 %	950	+/- 3.2 %
800	+/- 3.5 %	850	+/- 3.4 %
700	+/- 3.8 %	750	+/- 3.7 %
600	+/- 4.1 %	650	+/- 3.9 %
500	+/- 4.5 %	550	+/- 4.3 %
400	+/- 5.0 %	450	+/- 4.7 %

[7] Based on 95% confidence interval.

"Maximum sampling errors" occur when survey figures are close to 50%. If the figures are close to 0% or 100%, the sampling error will diminish accordingly. The sampling errors of ratings, however, will depend on the distribution of the raw figures. Since January 2007, POP lists out the sampling errors of all survey figures in detail and explain them in due course. Recent popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang are summarized as follows:

Date of survey	3-7/11/09	19-23/11/09	28/11-4/12/09	14-17/12/09	4-9/1/2010	Latest Change
Sample base	1,007	1,001	1,017	1,000	1,011	--
Overall response rate	71.8%	76.7%	74.5%	70.5%	68.0%	--
Latest finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding & error[8]	--
Rating of CE Donald Tsang	49.7	51.2	51.2	53.5[9]	53.7 +/-1.2	+0.2
Vote of confidence in CE Donald Tsang	38%	39%	39%	43%[9]	41% +/-3%	-2%
Vote of no confidence in CE Donald Tsang	46%	47%	45%	43%	43% +/-3%	--

[8] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.2, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[9] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

Figures on the latest popularity ratings of the three Secretaries of Departments under the accountability system are summarized below:

Date of survey	1-4/9/09	6-11/10/09	3-7/11/09	28/11-4/12/09	4-9/1/2010	Latest Change[10]
Sample base	1,002	1,010	1,007	1,017	1,011	--
Overall response rate	60.5%	67.5%	71.8%	74.5%	68.0%	--
Latest finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding & Error[11]	--
Ratings of CS Henry Tang	55.6	57.6[12]	55.6[12]	54.0[12]	54.4 +/-1.2	+0.4
Vote of confidence in CS Henry Tang	48%[12]	53%[12]	50%	48%	43% +/-3%	-5%[12]
Vote of no confidence in CS Henry Tang	13%[12]	11%	10%	15%[12]	17% +/-2%	+2%
Ratings of FS John Tsang	53.3	58.7[12]	55.8[12]	56.2	58.4 +/-1.2	+2.2[12]
Vote of confidence in FS John Tsang	41%	58%[12]	53%[12]	55%	56% +/-3%	+1%
Vote of no confidence in FS John Tsang	16%[12]	11%[12]	13%	14%	12% +/-2%	-2%
Ratings of SJ Y.L. Wong	60.3	62.1[12]	61.9	60.3[12]	60.8 +/-1.2	+0.5
Vote of confidence in SJ Y.L.Wong	60%	64%[12]	65%	66%	63% +/-3%	-3%
Vote of no confidence in SJ Y.L.Wong	6%	5%	4%	5%	6% +/-1%	+1%

[10] The frequency of this series of questions is different for different questions, and also different from that of CE popularity ratings. Comparisons, if made, should be synchronized using the same intervals.
[11] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-1.2, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[12] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

Figures on the latest popularity ratings of Directors of Bureaux under the accountability system are summarized below:

Date of survey	3-7/11/09		28/11-4/12/09		4-9/1/2010		Latest Change
Total sample size[13]	1,007		1,017		1,011		--
Overall response rate	71.8%		74.5%		68.0%		--
Sample base for each question/ Percentage of answer	Base	%	Base	%	Base	% and Error[14]	--
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Security Ambrose Lee	525	67%	537	69%	530	68% +/-4%	-1%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Security Ambrose Lee	525	7%	537	7%	530	7% +/-2%	--
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Food and Health York Chow	536	50%	541	50%	536	53% +/-4%	+3%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Food and Health York Chow	536	24%	541	22%	536	24% +/-4%	+2%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung[16]	540	52%	537	51%	536	49% +/-4%	-2%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung[16]	540	11%	537	9%	536	9% +/-2%	--
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Development Carrie Lam[16]	509	45%[15]	524	49%	536	49% +/-4%	--
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Development Carrie Lam[16]	509	13%	524	14%	536	11% +/-3%	-3%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Transport and Housing Eva Cheng[16]	527	40%[15]	524	33%[15]	537	38% +/-4%	+5%[15]
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Transport and Housing Eva Cheng[16]	527	17%[15]	524	16%	537	14% +/-3%	-2%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for the Environment Edward Yau[16]	515	36%	559	36%	538	38% +/-4%	+2%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for the Environment Edward Yau[16]	515	19%[15]	559	24%[15]	538	16% +/-3%	-8%[15]
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Education Michael Suen	516	32%	537	33%	541	35% +/-4%	+2%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Education Michael Suen	516	36%	537	34%	541	37% +/-4%	+3%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan	523	30%[15]	544	32%	536	34% +/-4%	+2%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan	523	14%[15]	544	11%	536	11% +/-3%	--
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing	537	29%	530	34%[15]	544	31% +/-4%	-3%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing	537	28%	530	34%[15]	544	28% +/-4%	-6%[15]
Vote of confidence in Secretary for the Civil Service Denise Yue	528	32%	534	37%[15]	542	30% +/-4%	-7%[15]
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for the Civil Service Denise Yue	528	13%	534	10%	542	11% +/-3%	+1%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Stephen Lam	516	28%	533	31%	529	28% +/-4%	-3%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Stephen Lam	516	34%	533	33%	529	33% +/-4%	--
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Rita Lau	527	28%[15]	536	30%	551	27% +/-4%	-3%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Rita Lau	527	14%	536	11%	551	8% +/-2%	-3%[15]

[13] Starting from 2006, these questions only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned, the sample size for each question also varies.
[14] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[15] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.
[16] The approval rates of Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung and Secretary for Development Carrie Lam are 48.8% and 48.5% respectively in 1 decimal place. The approval rates of Secretary for Transport and Housing Eva Cheng and Secretary for the Environment Edward Yau are 38.05% and 38.03% respectively in 2 decimal places.

The latest survey showed that, CE Donald Tsang scored 53.7 marks, and 41% supported him as the Chief Executive. Meanwhile, the corresponding ratings of CS Henry Tang, FS John Tsang and SJ Wong Yan-lung were 54.4, 58.4 and 60.8 marks and 43%, 56% and 63% would vote for their reappointment correspondingly.

As for the Directors of Bureaux, results revealed that the top approval rate fell to Secretary for Security Ambrose Lee, attaining 68%. The 2nd place belonged to Secretary for Food and Health York Chow, with 53% approval rate. Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung and Secretary for Development Carrie Lam both gained 49% vote of confidence from the public and shared the 3rd rank. Secretary for Transport and Housing Eva Cheng and Secretary for the Environment Edward Yau both gained a support rate of 38% and shared the 5th position. Secretary for Education Michael Suen, Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan, Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing, Secretary for the Civil Service Denise Yue, Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Stephen Lam and Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Rita Lau ranked the 7th to 12th as they gained 35%, 34%, 31%, 30%, 28% and 27% support from the public respectively,. In other words, only Ambrose Lee and York Chow scored approval rates of over 50% among all Directors of Bureaux.

 

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to "Opinion Daily" as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey of some items was conducted from November 28 to December 4, 2009 while this survey was conducted from January 4 to 9, 2010. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

9/1/10	Acid attack again at Temple Street night market.
8/1/10	Stalemate again in fast-rail debate.
1/1/10	30,000 people air their grievances at the Liaison office of the Central People's Government.
28/12/09	Many newspapers report and discuss on the following day Donald Tsang's duty visit to Beijing. Sino Land clinches 2 sites with a lower-than-expected bid.
26/12/09	The Wuhan-Guangzhou high-speed railway starts operation.
25/12/09	Liu Xiaobo is sentenced to 11 years in prison for "incitement to subvert state power".
19/12/09	President Hu Jintao arrives Macau to attend the 10th anniversary ceremony, while some reporters from Hong Kong are banned to enter Macau.
13/12/09	The 5th East Asian Games concludes.
8/12/09	CLP to raise power tariff by 2.6%.
5/12/09	Official opening ceremony of the East Asian Games in Hong Kong.
4/12/09	Many newspapers report and discuss the 2009 East Asian Games.

 

Note: The following commentary was written by Director of POP Robert Chung.

Our latest survey shows that compared to the last survey, CE Donald Tsang's support rating and approval rate have remained rather stable. His net popularity now stands at negative 2 percentage points.

For the Secretaries of Departments, compared to one month ago, the support rating of FS John Tsang has gone up significantly by 2.2 marks, while the approval rate of Henry Tang has gone down significantly by 5 percentage points. Both the support rating and approval rate of SJ Wong Yan-lung have remained stable. The net approval rates of Tang, Tsang and Wong now stand at positive 26, 44 and 57 percentage points respectively. Wong Yan-lung remains to be the most popular Secretary of Department.

As for the Directors of Bureaux, compared to one month ago, the approval rates of 6 among 12 Directors have gone down, 5 have gone up, while 1 remains unchanged. Among them, those with changes in approval rate beyond sampling error include Secretary for the Civil Service Denise Yue, down 7 percentage points, and Secretary for Transport and Housing Eva Cheng, up by 5 percentage points.

Among the Secretaries and Directors, only Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Stephen Lam and Secretary for Education Michael Suen register negative popularity, meaning that their disapproval rates are higher than their approval rates. Their net popularity figures now stand at negative 5 and negative 2 percentage points.

According to POP's standard, Ambrose Lee now falls under the category of "ideal" performance. Wong Yan-lung, John Tsang, and York Chow can be labeled as "successful". Matthew Cheung, Carrie Lam, Henry Tang, Donald Tsang, Eva Cheng, Edward Yau, Michael Suen, Tsang Tak-sing and Stephen Lam can be labeled as "mediocre", Ceajer Chan, Denise Yue and Rita Lau can be labeled as "inconspicuous". No official falls under the categories of "depressing" or "disastrous". As for the reasons affecting the popularity change of these officials, readers can make their own judgment using detailed records shown in our "Opinion Daily" feature page.

The following table summarizes the grading of the principal officials for readers' easy reference:

"Ideal": those with approval rates of over 66%; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets

Secretary for Security Ambrose Lee Siu-kwong (68%)

"Successful": those with approval rates of over 50%; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets

SJ Wong Yan-lung (63%); FS John Tsang Chun-wah (56%) and Secretary for Food and Health York Chow Yat-ngok (53%)

"Mediocre": those not belonging to other 5 types; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets

Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung Kin-chung (49%[17]); Secretary for Development Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor (49%[17]); CS Henry Tang Ying-yen (43%); CE Donald Tsang Yam-kuen (41%); Secretary for Transport and Housing Eva Cheng Yu-wah (38%[17]); Secretary for the Environment Edward Yau Tang-wah (38%[17]); Secretary for Education Michael Suen Ming-yeung (35%); Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing (31%) and Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Stephen Lam Sui-lung (28%)

"Inconspicuous": those with recognition rates of less than 50%; ranked by their approval rates; the first figure inside bracket is approval rate while the second figure is recognition rate

Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan Ka-keung (34%, 46%); Secretary for the Civil Service Denise Yue Chung-yee (30%, 41%) and Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Rita Lau Ng Wai-lan (27%, 35%)

"Depressing": those with disapproval rates of over 50%; ranked by their disapproval rates

None

"Disastrous": those with disapproval rates of over 66%; ranked by their disapproval rates

None

[17] The approval rates of Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung and Secretary for Development Carrie Lam are 48.8% and 48.5% respectively in 1 decimal place. The approval rates of Secretary for Transport and Housing Eva Cheng and Secretary for the Environment Edward Yau are 38.05% and 38.03% respectively in 2 decimal places.

 

• January 19, 2010 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Popularity of Executive Councilors, Under Secretaries and Political Assistants