HKU POP SITE releases people's appraisal of society's conditionsBack

Press Release on January 7, 2010

Points to Note

Since the figures released by the Public Opinion Programme (POP) of the University of Hong Kong at the "HKU POP SITE" (http://hkupop.pori.hk) today come from the last tracking survey on this topic conducted by HKUPOP in 2009, the half-yearly averages published in the website are good for year-end stories. Because the handover of Hong Kong occurred on July 1, it may be more appropriate and accurate to analyze macro changes of Hong Kong society using half-yearly figures rather than yearly figures.

Abstract

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) of the University of Hong Kong interviewed 1,028 Hong Kong people from December 28 to 30, 2009 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. The survey finds that in terms of relative ranking, the percentage of people most concerned with political problems has significantly increased by 8 percentage points to reach a record high since October 1996, but people are still most concerned with economic and social problems, almost to the same extent, followed by political problems. In terms of absolute ratings, social problems has a slightly higher rating than economic problems because, similar to the situation six months ago, those most concerned with political problems have given higher scores to social than economic problems. People's net satisfaction level of current political conditions is negative 26 percentage points, that of economic conditions negative 1 percentage point, while that of social conditions stands at positive 4 percentage points. Looking back, compared to 3 years ago, people's net appraisals regarding economic, social and political development stand at negative 27, negative 26 and negative 29 percentage points respectively. Looking ahead to 3 years later, people's net estimates regarding economic, social and political development now stand at positive 26, positive 8 percentage points and zero respectively. In other words, people are generally not too satisfied with Hong Kong's development over the past 3 years, but are cautiously optimistic about future development in general, but relatively more worried about political development. The maximum sampling error of the survey is between +/-2 and +/-3 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures needs another calculation. The response rate of the survey is 67%.

Points to note:
[1] The address of the 「HKU POP SITE」 is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
[2] The sample size of this survey is 1,028 successful interviews, not 1,028 x 66.5% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
[3] The maximum sampling error of all percentages is between +/-2 and 3 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures needs another calculation. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-0.14 and sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level".
[4] When quoting percentages of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used, in order to match the precision level of the figures.
[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses 「computerized random telephone survey」 to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

Latest Figures

POP today releases on schedule via the "POP SITE" the latest findings of people's appraisal of society's current conditions. As a general practice, all figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in mid-2009. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:

Date of survey	Overall sample size	Response rate	Sampling error of percentages[6]
28-30/12/2009	1,028	66.5%	+/-3%

[6] Calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. 「95% confidence level」 means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.

Recent figures of people's appraisal of society's conditions are summarized as follows:

Date of survey	19-24/12/07	24-26/6/08	23-29/12/08	23-26/6/09	28-30/12/09	Latest change
Sample base	1,019	1,031	1,022	1,008	1,028	--
Overall response rate	66.2%	72.1%	72.8%	70.0%	66.5%	--
Latest finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding and error[7]	--
Most concerned with economic problems	40%	56%	63%[9]	52%[9]	44%+/-3%	-8%[9]
Most concerned with social problems	53%	35%	31%[9]	42%[9]	42%+/-3%	--
Most concerned with political problems	6%	4%	5%	4%	12%+/-2%	+8%[9]
Rating on concern for economic problems	7.29	7.21	7.52[9]	7.24[9]	7.19+/-0.12	-0.05
Rating on concern for social problems	7.34	6.99	7.30[9]	7.28	7.24+/-0.12	-0.04
Rating on concern for political problems	5.82	5.50	5.73[9]	5.56[9]	5.62+/-0.14	+0.06
Current economic condition: Satisfaction rate[8]	55%	31%	22%[9]	22%	35%+/-3%	+13%[9]
Current economic condition: Dissatisfaction rate[8]	20%	34%	47%[9]	37%[9]	36%+/-3%	-1%
Current social condition: Satisfaction rate[8]	53%	40%	35%[9]	33%	37%+/-3%	+4%[9]
Current social condition: Dissatisfaction rate[8]	18%	27%	31%[9]	33%	33%+/-3%	--
Current political condition: Satisfaction rate[8]	37%	30%	29%	22%[9]	22%+/-3%	--
Current political condition: Dissatisfaction rate[8]	27%	33%	36%	38%	48%+/-3%	+10%[9]
Regarded economic condition has become better in the last 3 years	73%	48%	10%[9]	7%[9]	24%+/-3%	+17%[9]
Regarded economic condition has become worse in the last 3 years	11%	35%	75%[9]	75%	51%+/-3%	-24%[9]
Regarded social condition has become better in the last 3 years	59%	41%	19%[9]	18%	22%+/-3%	+4%[9]
Regarded social condition has become worse in the last 3 years	16%	31%	52%[9]	56%[9]	48%+/-3%	-8%[9]
Regarded political condition has become better in the last 3 years	49%	39%	25%[9]	22%	18%+/-2%	-4%[9]
Regarded political condition has become worse in the last 3 years	16%	28%	38%[9]	42%[9]	47%+/-3%	+5%[9]
Expected economic condition to become better in 3 years' time	40%	31%	55%[9]	56%	47%+/-3%	-9%[9]
Expected economic condition to become worse in 3 years' time	19%	36%	18%[9]	18%	21%+/-3%	+3%
Expected social condition to become better in 3 years' time	39%	31%	43%[9]	38%[9]	37%+/-3%	-1%
Expected social condition to become worse in 3 years' time	18%	31%	22%[9]	28%[9]	29%+/-3%	+1%
Expected political condition to become better in 3 years' time	37%	33%	36%	30%[9]	29%+/-3%	-1%
Expected political condition to become worse in 3 years' time	15%	24%	20%[9]	28%[9]	29%+/-3%	+1%

[7] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level. 「95% confidence level」 means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-0.14 and sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[8] Collapsed from a 5-point scale.
[9] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

The survey conducted in late-December 2009 showed that 44% of the respondents were most concerned with economic problems, 42% with social problems, while 12% attached their greatest concern to political problems. Using a scale of 0-10 marks, the ratings of people's concern over economic, social and political problems were 7.19, 7.24 and 5.62 marks correspondingly. Meanwhile, people's satisfaction rates with the current economic, social and political conditions were 35%, 37% and 22% respectively. Regarding people's appraisal of Hong Kong's development, 24%, 22% and 18% respectively considered our economic, social and political conditions have improved in the last 3 years, while 47%, 37% and 29% respectively believed economic, social and political conditions would become better in 3 years' time.

Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to 「Opinion Daily」 as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from June 23 to 26, 2009 while this survey was conducted from December 28 to 30, 2009. In between these two surveys, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

25/12/09	Liu Xiaobo is sentenced to 11 years in prison for "incitement to subvert state power".
13/12/09	The 5th East Asian Games concludes with great fanfare.
24/11/09	Public widely discusses the issue of resignation of five GC legislators.
18/11/09	The government publishes the Consultation Document on the Methods for Selecting the Chief Executive and for Forming the Legislative Council in 2012.
23/10/09	Many newspapers on the following day keep on reporting and discussing to slow a surge in luxury property price.
14/10/09	Many newspapers on the following day report and discuss on the Chief Executive Donald Tsang's Policy Address.
1/10/09	The People's Republic of China celebrates its 60th anniversary.
9/9/09	Many newspapers on the following day report and discuss the beating of three Hong Kong journalists by police in Xinjiang.
26/8/09	Mr Joseph Yam Chi-kwong addresses advice to Hong Kong's prospects before his retirement.
21/8/09	Chief Executive Donald Tsang seeks advice for coming policy address from media.
6/8/09	Many newspapers on the following day comment on the first trial of drug-testing scheme at secondary schools of Tai Po in December.
22/7/09	16 Banks repays HK$6.3 billion to 90% investors who bought Lehman Brothers minibonds for compensation.
16/7/09	Hong Kong records its first death linked to H1N1.
1/7/09	Tens of thousands take to the streets to call for diversified demands.

Commentary

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, 「According to our latest survey conducted at the end of last year, in terms of relative ranking, the percentage of people most concerned with political problems has significantly increased by 8 percentage points to reach a record high since October 1996, but people are still most concerned with economic and social problems, almost to the same extent, followed by political problems. In terms of absolute ratings, social problems has a slightly higher rating than economic problems because, similar to the situation six months ago, those most concerned with political problems have given higher scores to social than economic problems. People's net satisfaction level of current political conditions is negative 26 percentage points, that of economic conditions negative 1 percentage point, while that of social conditions stands at positive 4 percentage points. Looking back, compared to 3 years ago, people's net appraisals regarding economic, social and political development stand at negative 27, negative 26 and negative 29 percentage points respectively. Looking ahead to 3 years later, people's net estimates regarding economic, social and political development now stand at positive 26, positive 8 percentage points and zero respectively. In other words, people are generally not too satisfied with Hong Kong's development over the past 3 years, but are cautiously optimistic about future development in general, but relatively more worried about political development. We leave it for our readers to figure out the reasons for such feelings using detailed records shown in our "Opinion Daily" feature page.」

Next Release (Tentative)

January 12, 2010 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Popularity of CE and Principal Officials