| Background | Analysis of findings |
Background
Since its establishment in 1991, the Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong has been conducting different types of opinion studies on social and political issues, as well as providing research services for different organizations, on condition that POP would design and conduct all studies independently, and could also release their findings for public consumption. In December 2009, the Justice & Peace Commission of the HK Catholic Diocese (the Commission) commissioned POP to conduct an opinion survey related to the planning of the Hong Kong Section of the Guangzhou-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Express Rail Link (Express Rail Link). The survey results are first released by the Commission, followed by a POP press release for public consumption. The survey comprises three opinion questions, plus a few demographic variables. This press release focuses on the analysis of the frequency findings and cross-tabulation results.
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Analysis of findings
The latest survey findings released today have been weighted according to the provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in mid-2009. Herewith the contact information for this survey:
Date of survey |
Sample base |
Overall response rate |
Sampling error of percentages[1] |
29/12/09-5/1/10 |
1,018 |
67.5% |
+/-3% |
[1] "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
Frequency findings of the survey questions are as follows:
Q1. How much do you know about the discussion of the Express Rail Link (HK Section)? |
Very much
4% +/-1% |
Fairly much
13% +/-2% |
Half-half
22% +/-3% |
Quite little
28% +/-3% |
Very little
31% +/-3% |
Don't know/ Hard to say
3% +/-1% |
Total
100% |
Much 17% +/-2% |
Little 59% +/-3% |
Q2. There are different views on the choice of venue and number of Express Rail Link stations. How much do you know about this issue? |
Very much
3% +/-1% |
Fairly much
12% +/-2% |
Half-half
17% +/-3% |
Quite little
30% +/-3% |
Very little
35% +/-3% |
Don't know/ Hard to say
4% +/-1% |
Total
100% |
Much 15% +/-2% |
Little 64% +/-3% |
Q3. The government is seeking for LegCo funding of HK$ 66.9 billion, which is equivalent to HK$10,000 per HK citizen, for the Express Rail Link construction project. Do you incline to support or oppose the funding, or prefer to suspend it? |
Support |
47% +/-3% |
Oppose |
23% +/-3% |
Suspend |
22% +/-3% |
Don't know/ Hard to say |
9% +/-2% |
Total |
100% |
Survey findings showed that 17% of respondents said they know much about the discussion of the Hong Kong Section of the Express Rail Link, while 59% said that they know little about it. Regarding the choice of venue and number of Express Rail Link stations, 15% of respondents said they know much about the issue, while 64% said they know little. In any case, 47% supported the funding for its construction by the LegCo, 23% opposed, while 22% preferred to suspend it. The cross-tabulation analyses of the respondents' preference for funding against their knowledge of the issue are shown as follows:
|
Q1. How much do you know about the discussion of the Express Rail Link (HK Section)? |
|
Know much |
Half-half |
Know little |
Overall sample |
Q3. Incline to support or oppose the funding, or prefer to suspend it? |
Support |
59%
(101) |
54%
(118) |
42%
(248) |
47%
(480) |
Oppose |
24%
(40) |
19%
(43) |
24%
(144) |
23%
(229) |
Suspend |
14%
(23) |
21%
(47) |
25%
(148) |
22%
(221) |
Don't know/ Hard to say |
3%
(6) |
6%
(12) |
10%
(59) |
9%
(87) |
Total |
100%
(170) |
100%
(220) |
100%
(599) |
100%
(1,018) |
|
Q2. There are different views on the choice of venue and number of Express Rail Link stations. How much do you know about this issue? |
|
Know much |
Half-half |
Know little |
Overall sample |
Q3. Incline to support or oppose the funding, or prefer to suspend it? |
Support |
50%
(77) |
53%
(91) |
45%
(296) |
47%
(480) |
Oppose |
29%
(45) |
21%
(36) |
22%
(143) |
23%
(229) |
Suspend |
17%
(26) |
21%
(36) |
24%
(155) |
22%
(221) |
Don't know/ Hard to say |
4%
(6) |
5%
(8) |
9%
(59) |
9%
(87) |
Total |
100%
(156) |
100%
(171) |
100%
(655) |
100%
(1,018) |
Analyses showed that among those who claimed to be knowledgeable about the Express Rail Link discussion, a respective of 59%, 24% and 14% said they support, oppose and prefer to suspend funding. Among those who claimed they know little, a respective of 42%, 24% and 25% said they support, oppose and prefer to suspend funding. In other words, those who know less about the issue show less support for funding. The findings of the other cross-tabulation analysis show similar results, meaning that the knowledge level is a critical factor. |
| Background | Analysis of findings |
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