HKU POP SITE releases headcount results of January 1 Rally Back

Press Release on January 6, 2010

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong conducted a headcount of the January 1 Rally organized by the Power for Democracy at the Walkway System on the footbridge of Central-Mid-Levels Escalator at the joint of Queen's Road Central and Cochrane Street in Central on January 1, 2010. Headcount figures showed that, excluding those who left the rally before the march arriving the checkpoint or joined the march after it, 8,774 people passed by the checkpoint. According to our previous data, it is estimated that the total number of participants of the January 1 Rally should be in between 10,000 and 12,000.

The adjustment factor was found by making reference to similar rallies out of the 20 mass demonstration headcount projects involving POP since the July 1 Rally in 2003. For more details, please refer to the 'Research on Mass Gatherings and Rallies Feature Page' at the "HKU POP SITE" (at http://hkupop.pori.hk).The following table and findings are for reference.

Herewith the table summarizes the headcount record of various mass demonstration headcount projects which POP have taken part in. POP's involvement varied each time, sometimes assisting scholars or student research team, sometimes taking part in directly. For more details, please visit the "POP SITE".

Date	Project	Hosting organization	POP's findings
1/7/2003	July 1 Rally	Civil Human Rights Front	429 - 502 thousands
1/1/2004	January 1 Rally	Civil Human Rights Front	39 - 50 thousands
4/6/2004	June 4 Vigil	Hong Kong Alliance in Support of Patriotic Democratic Movements in China	47 - 55 thousands
1/7/2004	July 1 Rally	Civil Human Rights Front	180 - 207 thousands
1/1/2005	January 1 Rally	Defend Hong Kong's Stability Alliance	9,200 - 9,700
1/1/2005	January 1 Rally	Hong Kong Confederation of Trade Unions	320 - 330
23/1/2005	January 23 Rally	Civil Human Rights Front	1,200 - 1,300
4/6/2005	June 4 Vigil	Hong Kong Alliance in Support of Patriotic Democratic Movements in China	around 36 thousands
1/7/2005	July 1 Rally	Civil Human Rights Front	20 - 24 thousands
4/12/2005	Rally for Universal Suffrage	Civil Human Rights Front	72 - 84 thousands
1/7/2006	July 1 Rally	Civil Human Rights Front	33 - 39 thousands
12/11/2006	Walk For The Harbour	Society for Protection of The Harbour Limited	390 - 460
18/3/2007	Rally for Universal Suffrage and Improving Living	Civil Human Rights Front	4,000 - 4,700
1/7/2007	July 1 Rally	Civil Human Rights Front	30 - 34 thousands
13/1/2008	Rally for Universal Suffrage in 2012	Civil Human Rights Front	10 - 12 thousands
1/7/2008	July 1 Rally	Civil Human Rights Front	16 - 19 thousands
4/6/2009	June 4 Vigil	Hong Kong Alliance in Support of Patriotic Democratic Movements in China	108 - 132 thousands
1/7/2009*	July 1 Rally	Right to Inherent Dignity Movement Association	84 - 99
1/7/2009*	July 1 Rally	Alliance of Lehman Brothers Victims	2,600 - 3,000
1/7/2009*	July 1 Rally	Civil Human Rights Front	32 - 37 thousands
1/1/2010*	January 1 Rally	Power for Democracy	10 - 12 thousands

* The final adjusted figures of the 2009 July 1 Rally and the headcount figures of the 2010 January 1 Rally are released for the first time.

The counting process and projected figures of the 'Rally for Universal Suffrage' on December 4, 2005 are as follows. It is also the blueprint of the January 1 Rally of this year.

After the rally in 2005, POP interviewed 4,062 Hong Kong citizens aged eighteen or above between December 9, 2005 and January 20, 2006 by means of a random telephone survey and 225 said they had participated in that rally. Among them, 78.6% claimed that they had passed through the POP checkpoint and hence, the adjustment factor obtained is in between 1.18 and 1.38.

Although the nature, the route and the checkpoint of each rally may not be the same, the adjustment factor is indeed very similar with other rallies of the same type. Prior to obtaining other data, it should be applicable to this year's January 1 Rally. For more details, please refer to POP SITE.