HKU POP SITE releases the latest figures of the 2009 year-end and 2010 forecast surveyBack

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong interviewed 1,000 Hong Kong people between 14 and 17 December 2009 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. Our annual survey shows that those satisfied with Hong Kong's development in the year past have rebounded 13 percentage points at the end of 2009 to reach 42%, after a big plunge of 35 pecentage points in 2008. Net satisfaction rate now stands at positive 18 percentage points. Looking ahead, although respondents still perceive economy to be the most important problem to be tackled by the government next year, it has dropped significantly by 26 percentage points when compared to a year ago, probably due to the gradually recovering economy. Meanwhile, the percentage of those who expect Hong Kong's economy to get better in the year ahead has shot up 47 percentage points to 62%, a record high optimism since December 2004. Likewise, assessment of personal development in the year ahead has also rebounded 28 percentage points from a record low last year to a record high of 55% since this question was introduced in 1993. Programme Director Robert Chung observes that people's expectation of future development had a big plunge at the end of 2008, and then soared high at the end of 2009. The magnitude of fluctuation and the strength of rebound are rarely seen over a generation. As for people's personal sentiment, those who said they lived a happy life in the year past did not change much over the years, meaning that people have stayed calm and easy both during hard and easy times. As for people's new year wishes, without explicit prompting, almost half made a wish on a society-related issue, mainly about the economy, only about one-third made a wish on personal matters, especially for health. This is a good sign of social awareness for the Hong Kong people. The maximum sampling error of the survey is between +/-2 and +/-3 percentage points at 95% confidence level, response rate being 70%.

POP today releases on schedule via the "POP SITE" the latest findings of the 2009 review and 2010 forecast survey. As a general practice, all figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in mid-2009. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:

Herewith the figures collected at the year-end of 2009 compared with similar figures obtained in recent years:

Looking back at the year past, 42% said they were satisfied with Hong Kong's development, 24% were dissatisfied. Meanwhile, 62% expected Hong Kong's development in general to become 「better」 next year, 12% said it would be worse. Besides, 41% considered 「economy」 to be the most important problem that the government should tackle next year, 10%, 8% and 6% respectively thought 「constitutional development」, 「employment」 and 「welfare」 was the most pressing problem. If one had to choose between a 「prosperous」, 「corruption-free」, 「fair」, 「free」, and 「welfare」 society, 28% of the respondents would wish Hong Kong to become a 「prosperous」 society, while 25% and 21% opted for a 「corruption-free」 and 「fair」 society respectively.

Findings also showed that 55% of the respondents said they were happy in the year past, 14% were not. As for the coming year, 55% believed their personal development would become better, 10% thought they would worse off. With respect to people's new year wishes, 25% were social economy-related, 16% were related to personal health, 13% were related to social livelihood and 8% were related to personal career or studies . 11% did not make any wish.

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to "Opinion Daily" as soon as they are verified by POP.

Since August 2007, POP would normally include in its regular press releases a list of significant events which happened in between two surveys, so that readers can make their own judgment on whether these events have any effect on the ups and downs of the polling figures. This release is an exception, because the surveys invovled were one year apart, and any of the significant events listed in our "Opinion Daily" in between might have affected people's comments for the year past. Thus, this release has not highlighted any event from "Opinion Daily", but readers can make their own judgment based on the detailed records listed in our webpage.

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, 「Our annual survey shows that those satisfied with Hong Kong's development in the year past have rebounded 13 percentage points at the end of 2009 to reach 42%, after a big plunge of 35 pecentage points in 2008. Net satisfaction rate now stands at positive 18 percentage points. Looking ahead, although respondents still perceive economy to be the most important problem to be tackled by the government next year, it has dropped significantly by 26 percentage points when compared to a year ago, probably due to the gradually recovering economy. Meanwhile, the percentage of those who expect Hong Kong's economy to get better in the year ahead has shot up 47 percentage points to 62%, a record high optimism since December 2004. Likewise, assessment of personal development in the year ahead has also rebounded 28 percentage points from a record low last year to a record high of 55% since this question was introduced in 1993. Combining all relevant figures, people's expectation of future development had a big plunge at the end of 2008, and then soared high at the end of 2009. The magnitude of fluctuation and the strength of rebound are rarely seen over a generation. As for people's personal sentiment, those who said they lived a happy life in the year past did not change much over the years, meaning that people have stayed calm and easy both during hard and easy times. As for people's new year wishes, without explicit prompting, almost half made a wish on a society-related issue, mainly about the economy, only about one-third made a wish on personal matters, especially for health. This is a good sign of social awareness for the Hong Kong people.」

• January 5, 2010 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Six trust and confidence indicators
• January 7, 2010 (Thursday) 1pm to 2pm: Appraisal of society's current conditions