| Background | Latest Figures | Commentary |
Background
Since its establishment in 1991, the Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong has been conducting different types of opinion studies on social and political issues, as well as providing research services for different organizations, on condition that POP would design and conduct all studies independently, and could also release the findings for public consumption. In November 2009, POP came into agreement with the "now News Channel" for a project called "Joint Public Opinion Research Project on Political Reform". The main objective of the project is to demonstrate, by focusing on ongoing discussions of political reform, how independent research institute and professional news media investigate, analyze, report and comment on public opinion, including the explanation and promotion of professional ethics of opinion studies. The project comprises conducting regular and ad-hoc opinion surveys and other public opinion studies after the launching of public consultation by the government. The survey results will first be released in the "now News Channel", followed by POP press releases for public consumption. The "now News Channel" agrees to POP uploading these programmes to the POP Site for public education, while POP agrees that "now News Channel" uses these findings for productions without POP's involvement. Please specify the source when quoting related data. The first two surveys were released on December 7 and 14. Today we release the results of the third survey. Please cite the source of the figures when using them.
|
Latest Figures
The latest survey findings released by POP through now News Channel today have been weighted according to the provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in mid-2009. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:
Date of survey |
Sample base |
Overall response rate |
Sampling error of percentages* |
14-17/12/09 |
1,000 |
70.5% |
+/-3% |
* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
The previous survey related to political reform was conducted in late November. This survey repeats some of the questions in order to track the changes. Latest findings are as follows:
Date of survey |
19-23/11/09 |
14-17/12/2009 |
Latest change |
Sample base |
1,001 |
1,000 |
-- |
Overall response rate |
76.7% |
70.5% |
-- |
Error (at 95% confidence level)* |
+/-3% |
+/-3% |
-- |
For the Chief Executive election in 2012, it is proposed that the representatives of Election Committee should be increased from 800 to 1,200 with around 100 representatives returned through election by elected District Council members from among themselves. Besides, every 150 Committee members can nominate 1 Chief Executive candidate, that is, the nomination threshold is set at the ratio of one-eight of the total membership of the Election Committee. How much do you support or oppose this proposal? * |
Support |
43% +/-3% |
42% +/-3% |
-1% |
Half-half |
10% +/-2% |
12% +/-2% |
+2% |
Oppose |
31% +/-3% |
26% +/-3% |
-5%# |
Don't know/ hard to say |
15% +/-2% |
20% +/-3% |
+5%# |
For the Legislative Council election in 2012, it is proposed that there should be 5 more seats of geographical constituencies and 5 more seats of functional constituencies which are returned through election by elected District Council members from among themselves, while existing functional seats remain unchanged. How much do you support or oppose this proposal? * |
Support |
43% +/-3% |
41% +/-3% |
-2% |
Half-half |
13% +/-2% |
11% +/-2% |
-2% |
Oppose |
28% +/-3% |
28% +/-3% |
-- |
Don't know/ hard to say |
16% +/-2% |
20% +/-3% |
+4%# |
* Collapsed from a 5-point scale.
With respect to the Government's proposal of Chief Executive election in 2012, the question we used was: "It is proposed that the representatives of Election Committee should be increased from 800 to 1200 with around 100 representatives returned through election by elected District Council members from among themselves. Besides, every 150 Committee members can nominate 1 Chief Executive candidate, that is, the nomination threshold is set at the ratio of one-eight of the total membership of the Election Committee." Results showed that 42% of the respondents supported and 26% opposed this proposal. As for the Government's proposal on the Legislative Council election in 2012, the question wordings used in this survey were: "It is proposed that there should be 5 more seats of geographical constituencies and 5 more seats of functional constituencies which are returned through election by elected District Council members from among themselves, while existing functional seats remain unchanged." Results showed that this proposal attained a support rate of 41%, versus 28% opposition.
Latest findings of other survey questions are as follows:
Regarding the retention or abolition of the Legislative Council functional constituencies, it is proposed that this issue should be discussed after the political reform proposal is passed. But it is also proposed that this issue should be discussed first, and then to vote for the political reform proposal. Which of the above suggestions do you agree more with? |
Discuss the issue before voting for the political reform proposal 48% +/-3% |
Discuss the issue after passingthe political reform proposal33% +/-3% |
Don't know/ hard to say20% +/-3% |
Total 100% |
The Democratic Party has decided not to join the collective resignation in 5 constituencies to induce a de facto referendum on political reform. Do you think other democratic parties should continue to resign collectively? |
Yes 26% +/-3% |
No 51% +/-3% |
Don't know/ hard to say 23% +/-3% |
Total 100% |
The democratic camp is now launching a rally on January 1, in order to demonstrate public opinion on political reform. Do you support or oppose such an action? |
Support |
44% +/-3% |
Half-half |
7% +/-2% |
Oppose |
38% +/-3% |
Don't know/ hard to say |
11% +/-2% |
Total |
100% |
* Collapsed from a 5-point scale.
Regarding the retention or abolition of the Legislative Council functional constituencies, 48% of the respondents think that the issue should be discussed before the political reform proposal is approved. 33% think the issue should be discussed after passing the political reform proposal. Besides, knowing that Democratic Party has decided not to join the collective resignation in 5 constituencies, 26% respondents still agree that other democratic parties should continue to resign collectively, 51% say no. Finally, 44% support the launching of the January 1 rally by the democrats, in order to demonstrate public opinion on political reform, 38% oppose the idea.
|
| Commentary
Note: The following commentary is extracted and enhanced from the comments made by the Director of Public Opinion Programme Dr Robert Chung on December 21, 2009 in the "now News Channel" programme "News Magazine", in the "now Survey on Political Reform" segment. Some questions and answers are provided by POP.
Q: Do the survey results show that the government proposal is receiving more support from people?
A: One can say so. Regarding the main contents of the 2012 CE and LC elections mentioned in the consultation paper, public opinion has remained positive. In our survey conducted in November, the support rates were both 43%. This time they are 42% and 41% respectively. Since the variation is small, the discussion of collective resignation seems to have very little effect. However, it should be noted that the questions only mentioned the main points of the two election methods, and the labeling effect of 'government proposal' is deliberately avoided. Our last survey shows that people give answer differently when this label is used.
Q: Over the past month, collective resignation in 5 constituencies seems to have become the focus of discussion. Do people really understand the content of political reform?
A: After the release of the political reform proposal, public discussion has definitely shifted to collective resignation and de facto referendum, without even discussing the content of the referendum. Public opinion has not changed much over these two months, probably because there was little discussion on issues other than collective resignation, like the retention or abolition of functional constituencies.
Q: What would induce a big change in public opinion, or even reverse it?
A: Examples may include large-scale rallies and assemblies, or perhaps provocative attacks from either side. Multi-perspective, diversified, fierce but rational discussions or even debates, is a healthy development.
Q: How would you interpret the discussion on the retention or abolition of functional constituencies before and after the passing of the political reform proposal?
A: 48% of the people would like to discuss the retention or abolition of functional constituencies before passing the political reform proposal, which is much higher than the 33% who go with discussing the issue after voting. This shows that people would like to discuss the issues of functional constituencies and fair election as early as possible, as well as the timeline and pathway of retaining or abolishing functional constituencies.
Q: How would you interpret so many people supporting the January 1 rally?
A: The support rate of the January 1 rally launched by the democrats is higher than that of collective resignation. On one hand, it shows that Hong Kong people accepts the use of rallies and assemblies to express themselves. On the other hand, it shows that Hong Kong people may not quite understand the meaning and effect of collective resignation and de facto referendum. For example, should there be just one or many motions to be polled? What is the motion? Will there be more than one motion? How can one's vote cast at a by-election be converted into a vote for one or more referendum motions? How would the results be used? All these are yet to be discussed.
Q: So many people support the January 1 rally, what inspirations are there for the government?
A: People who support the democrats for organizing the January 1 rally may not be joining it. The July 1 rally of 2003 is an exceptional case. It is impossible for the January 1 rally to have the same number of participants. Nevertheless, when tens of thousands of people take to the street, it's no casual event for both the government and society as a whole. |
| Background | Latest Figures | Commentary |
| |
