HKU POP SITE releases the latest findings of people's opinions towards Taiwan and Tibet issuesBack
| Press Release on December 18, 2009 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Abstract | Latest Figures | Opinion Daily | Commentary | Future Release (Tentative) | | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Abstract The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong interviewed 1,007 Hong Kong people between December 8 and 11 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. The survey finds that compared to three months ago, Hong Kong people's opinion towards the independence of Taiwan and the applicability of "one country, two systems" to Taiwan has not changed much, but their confidence in reunification across the strait has increased significantly by 5 percentage points, reaching a record high since September 2005. Net confidence rate now stands at positive 35 percentage points. People's opposition to the independence of Taiwan and Tibet remains high, at around 75%, but their support of Tibet's independence has rebounded to 13% after a significant drop registered last time. People's confidence in reunification across the strait and the applicability of "one country, two systems" to Taiwan remains positive, at 62% and 55% respectively. Although the opposition rate to Taiwan rejoining the United Nations has increased significantly by 4 percentage points to 44%, it is still far lower than that to the independence of Taiwan. This shows that some people are quite sympathetic to Taiwan's quest for more international space. The maximum sampling error of all percentages released today is between +/-2 and +/-3 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the response rate of the survey is 69%. Points to note: * The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there. * The sample size of this survey is 1,007 successful interviews, not 1,007 x 69.2% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake. * The maximum sampling error of all percentages is between +/-2 and +/-3 percentage points at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level". * When quoting percentages of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places in order to match the precision level of the figures. * The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Latest Figures POP today releases via the POP Site the latest figures of Hong Kong people's opinion towards Taiwan and Tibet issues. All the figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in mid-2009. Herewith the contact information for the survey:.
Recent figures of people's opinions towards Taiwan and Tibet issues are summarized as follows:
# Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful. Results obtained in the first half of December revealed that 75% of Hong Kong people interviewed opposed the independence of Taiwan whereas only 14% showed support. Meanwhile, 74% objected Tibet becoming independent whilst only 13% held a positive view. Besides, 62% were confident in the ultimate reunification across the strait whilst 27% expressed no confidence. Moreover, 40% supported Taiwan rejoining the United Nations, 44% opposed it. As for the applicability of 'one country, two systems' to Taiwan, 55% gave a positive view while 32% gave a negative answer. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Opinion Daily In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to "Opinion Daily" as soon as they are verified by POP. For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from September 7 to 13, 2009 while this survey was conducted from December 8 to 11, 2009. In between these two surveys, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.
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| Commentary Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "Compared to three months ago, Hong Kong people's opinion towards the independence of Taiwan and the applicability of 'one country, two systems' to Taiwan has not changed much, but their confidence in reunification across the strait has increased significantly by 5 percentage points, reaching a record high since September 2005. Net confidence rate now stands at positive 35 percentage points. People's opposition to the independence of Taiwan and Tibet remains high, at around 75%, but their support of Tibet's independence has rebounded to 13% after a significant drop registered last time. People's confidence in reunification across the strait and the applicability of 'one country, two systems' to Taiwan remains positive, at 62% and 55% respectively. Although the opposition rate to Taiwan rejoining the United Nations has increased significantly by 4 percentage points to 44%, it is still far lower than that to the independence of Taiwan. This shows that some people are quite sympathetic to Taiwan's quest for more international space. As for the reasons affecting the ups and downs of different figures, readers are free to form their own judgment using the detailed records displayed in our 'Opinion Daily'. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Future Release (Tentative)
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| | Abstract | Latest Figures | Opinion Daily | Commentary | Future Release (Tentative) | |
