HKU POP SITE releases popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang, Secretaries of Departments and Directors of Bureaux under the accountability systemBack
| Press Release on December 8, 2009 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Abstract | Latest Figures | Opinion Daily | Commentary | Future Release (Tentative) | | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Abstract The Public Opinion Programme at the University of Hong Kong interviewed 1,017 Hong Kong people between November 28 and December 4 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. The survey shows that compared to the last survey, CE Donald Tsang's support rating and approval rate have remained unchanged, while his disapproval rate has gone down 2 percentage points within sampling errors. CE's net popularity now stands at negative 6 percentage points. For the Secretaries of Departments, compared to one month ago, the support ratings of CS Henry Tang and SJ Wong Yan-lung have both gone down significantly by 1.6 marks, while the disapproval rate of Henry Tang has also gone up significantly by 5 percentage points, probably due to the public consultation on political reform. Both the support rating and approval rate of FS John Tsang have remained stable. The net approval rates of Tang, Tsang and Wong now stand at positive 33, 41 and 61 percentage points respectively. Wong Yan-lung remains to be the most popular Secretary of Department. As for the Directors of Bureaux, compared to one month ago, the approval rates of 8 among 12 Directors have gone up, 2 have gone down, while 2 remain unchanged. Among them, those with changes in approval rate beyond sampling error include Secretary for Transport and Housing Eva Cheng, down 7 percentage points, Secretary for the Civil Service Denise Yue and Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing, both up by 5 percentage points. Among the Secretaries and Directors, only Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Stephen Lam and Secretary for Education Michael Suen register negative popularity, meaning that their disapproval rates are higher than their approval rates. Their net popularity figures now stand at negative 2 and negative 1 percentage points. According to the benchmarks set by us quite some time ago, Ambrose Lee and Wong Yan-lung now fall under the category of "ideal" performance. John Tsang, Matthew Cheung and York Chow can be labeled as "successful", Carrie Lam, Henry Tang, Donald Tsang, Edward Yau, Tsang Tak-sing, Michael Suen and Stephen Lam can be labeled as "mediocre", Denise Yue, Eva Cheng, Ceajer Chan and Rita Lau can be labeled as "inconspicuous". No official falls under the categories of "depressing" or "disastrous". The maximum sampling error of all approval and disapproval rates is between +/-1 and +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures needs another calculation. The response rate of the survey is 74%. Points to note: * The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there. * The sample size of this survey is 1,017 successful interviews, not 1,017 x 74.5% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake. * The maximum sampling error of all approval and disapproval rates is between +/-1 and +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures needs another calculation. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-1.3 and sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level". * When quoting percentages of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used, in order to match the precision level of the figures. * The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Latest Figures POP today releases on schedule via POP SITE the latest popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang, Secretaries of Departments and Directors of Bureaux under the accountability system. All the figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in mid-2009. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:
As different questions involve different sub-samples, the sample errors will vary accordingly. The table below briefly shows the relationship between sample size and maximum sampling errors for the readers to capture the corresponding changes:
"Maximum sampling errors" occur when survey figures are close to 50%. If the figures are close to 0% or 100%, the sampling error will diminish accordingly. The sampling errors of ratings, however, will depend on the distribution of the raw figures. Since January 2007, POP lists out the sampling errors of all survey figures in detail and explain them in due course. Recent popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang are summarized as follows:
# Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful. ^ These questions only use sub-samples of the survey concerned. The sub-sample sizes of questions on CE's support rating and hypothetical voting were 735 and 742 respectively. Figures on the latest popularity ratings of the three Secretaries of Departments under the accountability system are summarized below:
** Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-1.2, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site. # Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful. Figures on the latest popularity ratings of Directors of Bureaux under the accountability system are summarized below:
** Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site. # Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful. ^ The approval rates of Secretary for Transport and Housing Eva Cheng and Secretary for Education Michael Suen are 33.3% and 33.1% respectively. The latest survey showed that, CE Donald Tsang scored 51.2 marks, and 39% supported him as the Chief Executive. Meanwhile, the corresponding ratings of CS Henry Tang, FS John Tsang and SJ Wong Yan-lung were 54.0, 56.2 and 60.3 marks, and 48%, 55% and 66% would vote for their reappointment correspondingly. As for the Directors of Bureaux, results revealed that the top approval rate fell to Secretary for Security Ambrose Lee, attaining 69%. Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung, Secretary for Food and Health York Chow and Secretary for Development Carrie Lam gained 51%, 50% and 49% vote of confidence from the public respectively, and ranked the 2nd, 3rd and 4th. The 5th and 6th ranks went to Secretary for the Civil Service Denise Yue and Secretary for the Environment Edward Yau, with respective support rates of 37% and 36%. Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing, Secretary for Transport and Housing Eva Cheng, Secretary for Education Michael Suen, Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan, Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Stephen Lam and Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Rita Lau ranked the 7th to 12th, as they gained 34%, 33%, 33%, 32%, 31% and 30% support from the public. In other words, only Ambrose Lee, Matthew Cheung and York Chow scored approval rates of over 50% among all Directors of Bureaux. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Opinion Daily In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to "Opinion Daily" as soon as they are verified by POP. For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey of some items was conducted from November 3 to 7, 2009 while this survey was conducted from November 28 to December 4, 2009. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Commentary Note: The following commentary was written by Director of POP Robert Chung. Our latest survey shows that compared to the last survey, CE Donald Tsang's support rating and approval rate have remained unchanged, while his disapproval rate has gone down 2 percentage points within sampling errors. CE's net popularity now stands at negative 6 percentage points. For the Secretaries of Departments, compared to one month ago, the support ratings of CS Henry Tang and SJ Wong Yan-lung have both gone down significantly by 1.6 marks, while the disapproval rate of Henry Tang has also gone up significantly by 5 percentage points, probably due to the public consultation on political reform. Both the support rating and approval rate of FS John Tsang have remained stable. The net approval rates of Tang, Tsang and Wong now stand at positive 33, 41 and 61 percentage points respectively. Wong Yan-lung remains to be the most popular Secretary of Department. As for the Directors of Bureaux, compared to one month ago, the approval rates of 8 among 12 Directors have gone up, 2 have gone down, while 2 remain unchanged. Among them, those with changes in approval rate beyond sampling error include Secretary for Transport and Housing Eva Cheng, down 7 percentage points, Secretary for the Civil Service Denise Yue and Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing, both up by 5 percentage points. Among the Secretaries and Directors, only Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Stephen Lam and Secretary for Education Michael Suen register negative popularity, meaning that their disapproval rates are higher than their approval rates. Their net popularity figures now stand at negative 2 and negative 1 percentage points. According to the benchmarks set by us quite some time ago, Ambrose Lee and Wong Yan-lung now fall under the category of "ideal" performance. John Tsang, Matthew Cheung and York Chow can be labeled as "successful", Carrie Lam, Henry Tang, Donald Tsang, Edward Yau, Tsang Tak-sing, Michael Suen and Stephen Lam can be labeled as "mediocre", Denise Yue, Eva Cheng, Ceajer Chan and Rita Lau can be labeled as "inconspicuous". No official falls under the categories of "depressing" or "disastrous". As for the reasons affecting the popularity change of these officials, readers can make their own judgment using detailed records shown in our "Opinion Daily" feature page. The following table summarizes the grading of the principal officials for readers' easy reference:
^ The recognition rate of Secretary for Transport and Housing Eva Cheng Yu-wah is 49.7% in 1 decimal place. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Future Release (Tentative)
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| | Abstract | Latest Figures | Opinion Daily | Commentary | Future Release (Tentative) | | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
