HKU POP SITE releases popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang and the HKSAR GovernmentBack

Press Release on November 24, 2009

Abstract

The latest survey conducted by the Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong after the SAR Government published the consultation document on political reform in 2012 shows that compared to two weeks ago, the support rating of CE Donald Tsang has increased significantly by 1.5 marks to over 50 again, thereby leaving the region of 「negative popularity」 and switching off the alert signal. The changes in his approval and disapproval rates are within sampling errors, and his net popularity remains at negative 8 percentage points. Compared to a month ago, the satisfaction rate of the SAR Government has significantly increased by 4 percentage points. The net popularity of SARG now stands at negative 7 percentage points. Director of POP Robert Chung observes that after the political reform consultation document was released, the public's attention seems to have been drawn to the disparity of opinion among the democrats, rather than on governance issues. The maximum sampling error of all percentages registered is +/-3% while that of rating is +/-1.3. The response rate of the latest survey is 77%.

Points to note:

* The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
* The sample size of this survey is 1,001 successful interviews, not 1,001 x 76.7% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
* The maximum sampling error of all percentages is +/-3 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figure is below +/-1.3 marks. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error below +/-3% at 95% confidence level for percentage figures, and +/-1.3 for rating figure".
* When quoting percentages of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used, in order to match the precision level of the figures.
* The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

Latest Figures

POP today releases on schedule via the "POP SITE" the latest popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang, and HKSAR Government. As a general practice, all figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in mid-2009. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:

Date of survey	Overall sample size	Response rate	Sampling error of percentages*
19-23/11/09	1,001	76.7%	+/-3%

* Calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Sampling errors of ratings are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.

Recent popularity figures of Donald Tsang and people's satisfaction of the overall performance of the HKSAR Government are summarized as follows:

Date of survey	6-11/10/09	14/10/09^^	20-30/10/09	3-7/11/09	19-23/11/09	Latest Change^
Sample base	1,010	1,007	1,005	1,007	1,001	--
Overall response rate	67.5%	71.9%	73.1%	71.8%	76.7%	--
Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding and error*	--
Rating of CE Donald Tsang	55.2	54.2	48.4#	49.7	51.2 +/-1.3	+1.5#
Vote of confidence in CE Donald Tsang	45%	45%	35%#	38%	39% +/-3%	+1%
Vote of no confidence in CE Donald Tsang	38%	37%	49%#	46%	47% +/-3%	+1%
Satisfaction rate of SARG performance **	--	--	27%#	--	31% +/-3%	+4%#
Dissatisfaction rate of SARG performance**	--	--	39%#	--	38% +/-3%	-1%

* Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.3, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
** Collapsed from a 5-point scale.
^ The polling cycle for different items varies. Parallel comparison across items should be synchronized.
^^ These questions only use sub-samples of the survey concerned. The sub-sample sizes of questions on CE's support rating and hypothetical voting were 735 and 742 respectively.
# Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

The latest survey conducted in late-November showed that, CE Donald Tsang scored 51.2 marks, and 39% supported him as the Chief Executive while another 47% opposed. Regarding people's appraisal of the overall performance of the HKSAR Government, the latest figures revealed that 31% were satisfied, whereas 38% were dissatisfied.

Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to
"Opinion Daily" as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey of some items was conducted from October 20 to 30, 2009 while this survey was conducted from November 19 to 23, 2009. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

20/11/09	The government implements three new measures to enhance the transparency of the sale of uncompleted units.
18/11/09	The government publishes the Consultation Document on the Methods for Selecting the Chief Executive and for Forming the Legislative Council in 2012.
14/11/09	President Hu Jintao gives his backing for the policy direction of CE Donald Tsang's Policy Address.
27/10/09	1) Chief Executive Donald Tsang Yam-kuen launches a scathing attack on the media. 2) Financial Secretary John Tsang Chun-wah initiates a meeting with major property developers to discuss the issue of soaring housing prices.
24/10/09	Many newspapers on the following day keep reporting CE Donald Tsang Yam-kuen's sister-in-law got compensation for losses on Lehman Brothers minibonds.
23/10/09	Many newspapers on the following day keep on reporting and discussing to slow a surge in luxury property price.
22/10/09	Chief Executive Donald Tsang Yam-kuen appoints two new Under Secretaries.
21/10/09	Many newspapers on the following day keep on reporting and discussing the possible bubble caused by extreme high property price.
20/10/09	Many newspapers on the following day keep on reporting and discussing the plan of Guangzhou-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Express Rail Link.

Commentary

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of POP, observed, 「Our latest survey conducted after the SAR Government published the consultation document on political reform in 2012 shows that compared to two weeks ago, the support rating of CE Donald Tsang has increased significantly by 1.5 marks to over 50 again, thereby leaving the region of "negative popularity" and switching off the alert signal. The changes in his approval and disapproval rates are within sampling errors, and his net popularity remains at negative 8 percentage points. Compared to a month ago, the satisfaction rate of the SAR Government has significantly increased by 4 percentage points. The net popularity of SARG now stands at negative 7 percentage points. After the political reform consultation document was released, the public's attention seems to have been drawn to the disparity of opinion among the democrats, rather than on governance issues. As for the exact reasons for the ups and downs of our opinion figures between polls, we leave it up to our readers to form their own judgment using detailed records displayed in our "Opinion Daily".」

Next Release (Tentative)

November 26, 2009 (Thursday) 1pm to 2pm: Rating of Top Ten Political Groups

December 1, 2009 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: People's Most Familiar Political Figures