HKU POP SITE releases the results of the Policy Address second follow-up surveyBack
| Press Release on October 27, 2009 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Abstract The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong interviewed 513 Hong Kong people between 20 and 26 October by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. The survey finds that people's satisfaction with the Policy Address has gone up slightly by 1 percentage point, but their dissatisfaction rate jumps 14 percentage points to 45%. People's satisfaction with Donald Tsang's policy direction remains the same but their dissatisfaction rate increases significantly by 7 percentage points. People's rating of the Policy Address now stands at 43.0 marks, having plunged 6.8 marks, and the net satisfaction rate of the Address and that of Tsang's policy direction now stand at negative 25% and negative 16% respectively. Moreover, in terms of the Address' theme and content, according to our latest follow-up survey, over 40% still agree that 「Breaking New Ground Together」 is an appropriate theme for the Address, having dropped somewhat. Donald Tsang suggested reinforcing the four traditional pillar industries and developing six key industries, and also proposed measures to conserve Central. Although their support rates have dropped, their net values still stay high at positive 46 and positive 63 percentage points respectively. However, Tsang did not mention helping the poor and the needy in his Address, he also brushed aside constitutional development lightly. These earned him net satisfaction rates of negative 46 and negative 5 percentage points respectively. POP Director Robert Chung sums up, compared to similar surveys conducted after the handover, after rounds of discussion, people's appraisal of this year's Policy Address is the worst among Tsang's five addresses. Other than addressing the issues of governance and policy direction, it seems that Tsang also needs to address the issue of image and style. The maximum sampling error of all percentages is between +/-3 and +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figure is +/-2.0. The response rate of the survey is 72%. Points to note:* The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there. * The sample size of this survey is 513 successful interviews, not 513 x 72.1% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake. * The maximum sampling error of all percentages is between +/-3 and +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figure is +/-2.0. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error of rating not more than +/-2.0 and sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level". * When quoting percentages of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used, in order to match the precision level of the figures. * The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Background Since 1992, POP has been conducting Policy Address instant surveys every year. From 1998 onwards, we expanded our instant surveys to cover the Budget Talks. Starting from 2008, we split up previous years' instant survey into two surveys. In our first survey, we measure people's overall appraisal of the Policy Address, their rating of the Policy Address, their change in confidence towards Hong Kong's future, and CE's popularity. Two days later, we started to conduct our second survey, which mainly studies people's reactions towards different government proposals, and any change in their satisfaction of the Policy Address. There is no change for follow-up polls following weeks after the instant polls. We believe this is a better way to study public opinion on these issues: measure people's instant reaction to the policies, and then repeat in our follow-up surveys, which measure people's more matured reaction. Our Policy Address's instant and follow-up surveys this year were released on October 15 and 20 respectively, while the findings of the second round follow-up poll are released today. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Latest Figures The findings of the second round survey of Policy Address released by POP SITE today have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in mid-2009. Herewith the contact information of various surveys:
As different questions involve different sub-samples, the sample errors will vary accordingly. The table below briefly shows the relationship between sampling errors and sample size for the readers to capture the corresponding changes:
Results of the second round follow-up survey of Policy Address, together with the instant and follow-up surveys, for 2008 and 2009 are tabulated below:
** Collapsed from a 5-point scale. # Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful. Latest survey revealed that 20% of the respondents were satisfied with the Policy Address and 45% were dissatisfied. The average rating registered for the Policy Address was 43.0 marks. As for people's satisfaction with Donald Tsang's policy direction, 25% of the respondents showed satisfaction while 41% were not satisfied. Results of people's satisfaction with the Policy Address in previous similar surveys (follow-up survey of Policy Address in 1997, 1998 and 2000 – 2007 and second round follow-up survey of Policy Address in 1999, 2008 and 2009) are tabulated below:
** Collapsed from a 5-point scale. # Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful. Compared to similar surveys conducted after the handover, people's satisfaction rate with this year's Policy Address is the lowest among Tsang's five addresses, while it is still higher than all those registered for Tung's second to eighth addresses. Results of the second round follow-up survey of Policy Address 2009, together with the instant and follow-up surveys are tabulated below:
# Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful. Results showed that 41% thought the theme of the Policy Address 「Breaking New Ground Together」 concurred with the current needs of the society while 34% did not think so. Besides, Donald Tsang suggested reinforcing the four traditional pillar industries and developing the six industries and proposed measures conserving Central, including reserving the Central Market and the Central Police Station, a respective of 60% and 75% supported his suggestions while 14% and 12% objected to these correspondingly. Findings also showed that a respective of 18% and 35% of respondents were satisfied with Donald Tsang's handling method of mentioning quality life and progressive society, but not helping the poor and the needy again and of simply mentioning the public consultations would be commenced next month regarding constitutional development, while 64% and 40% were dissatisfied. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Note: The following commentary was written by Director of POP Robert Chung. According to our Policy Address instant survey, among respondents who had some knowledge of the 5th Address of Donald Tsang, 30% said they were satisfied. However, in our first follow up survey, the figure dropped to 19%, while dissatisfaction rate increased from 28% to 31%. After another 5 days, people's satisfaction rate goes up slightly by 1 percentage point, but their dissatisfaction rate jumps 14 percentage points to 45%. People's satisfaction with Donald Tsang's policy direction remains the same but their dissatisfaction rate increases significantly by 7 percentage points. People's rating of the Policy Address now stands at 43.0 marks, having plunged 6.8 marks, and the net satisfaction rate of the Address and that of Tsang's policy direction now stand at negative 25% and negative 16% respectively. Moreover, in terms of the Address' theme and content, according to our latest follow-up survey, over 40% still agree that 「Breaking New Ground Together」 is an appropriate theme for the Address, having dropped somewhat. Donald Tsang suggested reinforcing the four traditional pillar industries and developing six key industries, and also proposed measures to conserve Central. Although their support rates have dropped, their net values still stay high at positive 46 and positive 63 percentage points respectively. However, Tsang did not mention helping the poor and the needy in his Address, he also brushed aside constitutional development lightly. These earned him net satisfaction rates of negative 46 and negative 5 percentage points respectively. To sum up, compared to similar surveys conducted after the handover, after rounds of discussion, people's appraisal of this year's Policy Address is the worst among Tsang's five addresses. Other than addressing the issues of governance and policy direction, it seems that Tsang also needs to address the issue of image and style. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Abstract | Background | Latest Figures | Commentary | Next Release (Tentative) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
