HKU POP SITE releases the latest ratings of the Top 10 Legislative CouncillorsBack
| Press Release on October 22, 2009 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Abstract | Latest Figures | Opinion Daily | Commentary | Next Release (Tentative) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Abstract The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong conducted a double stage survey on the ranking of Legislative Councillors in October, by means of random telephone surveys conducted by real interviewers. Our latest survey conducted shortly after the beginning of this year' Legco session shows that Lau Kwong-wah who entered "top 10" first time in our last survey to occupy the eighth position has dropped out again due to his relatively low recognition rate. Kam Nai-wai enters the list for the first time to occupy the ninth place, probably due to the "dismissal of female assistant" incident. Compared to three months ago, the popularity ratings of most "top 10" Legco members have dropped. Those with significant drops include Emily Lau, Albert Ho, Wong Yuk-man and Leung Kwok-hung, whose ratings have dropped 5.7, 4.9, 3.4 and 2.9 marks respectively. Chairman Jasper Tsang, however, registers a significant increase, to reach his record high rating since January 1997. In terms of relative rankings, Audrey Eu continues to occupy the first place while Regina Ip and Alan Leong rank second and third respectively. For others remaining on the list, their relative positions have changed just within two places. The maximum sampling errors of the ratings registered fall between +/-1.1 and +/-1.8 at 95% confidence level, while the response rate of the rating survey is 70%. Points to note:* The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there. * The sample size of the first stage naming survey is 1,010 successful interviews, not 1,010 x 67.5% response rate, while the sample size of the second stage rating survey is 1,002 successful interviews, not 1,002 x 69.9% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake. * 「95% confidence level」 means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state 「sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-1.8 at 95% confidence level」 when quoting the rating figures. In view of the error margins, one decimal place can be used when quoting these rating figures. * The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses 「computerized random telephone survey」 to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Latest Figures POP today releases on schedule via the "POP SITE" the latest popularity figures of the Top 10 Legislative Councillors. As a general practice, all figures have already been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in mid-2009. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:
The research design of our "Top 10 Legislative Councillors" has been explained in detail under "Survey Method" in our corresponding web page. The top councillors listed in our latest survey were all those who obtained the highest unprompted mentions in our first stage naming survey conducted in early-October. In that survey, respondents could name, unaided, up to 10 legislators whom they knew best. Leung Kwok-hung, Emily Lau, Wong Yuk-man, Albert Ho and Kam Nai-wai were mentioned most frequently. Please refer to the relevant table for the rest of the list. Those 13 who were named most frequently then entered into the second stage rating survey. During the second stage rating survey conducted in mid-October, respondents were asked to rate each legislator in turn using a 0-100 scale. 0 indicates absolutely no support, 100 indicates absolute support, and 50 means half-half. After calculation, the bottom 3 legislators in terms of recognition rate were dropped; the remaining 10 were then ranked according to their support ratings attained to become the top 10 Legislative Councillors. For easy reference, the POP Site has already displayed the results of all naming surveys conducted since the year 1998. Recent ratings of top 10 Legislative Councillors are summarized below:
** Ratings with recognition rates not reaching top 10 in either stage of survey are not available. [ ] Number in square brackets indicates rankings. # Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful. The latest survey conducted in mid-October showed that Audrey Eu was the most popularly supported councillor attaining 62.4 marks while Regina Ip and Alan Leong ranked the 2nd and 3rd with 61.9 and 60.1 marks correspondingly. The 4th to 7th ranks went to Lee Cheuk-yan, Jasper Tsang, Albert Ho and Emily Lau who attained 57.7, 57.3, 52.8 and 51.3 marks respectively. The 8th to 10th went to Wong Yuk-man, Kam Nai-wai and Leung Kwok-hung who attained 35.5, 32.6 and 31.6 marks respectively. The mean score obtained by the top 5 councillors was 59.9 marks, while that for the top 10 was 50.3 marks. For this latest survey, Ronny Tong, James To and Lau Kong-wah obtained support ratings of 58.8, 55.8 and 53.2 marks respectively, but they were dropped due to their relatively low recognition rates. The overall ratings ranked according to results obtained over the past 12 calendar months are tabulated as follows:
** 「Overall ranking」 is first determined by their number of times on top 10, and then their average ratings. The overall rankings in the past 12 months showed that nine Legislative Councillors have been on the list for four times. They are Audrey Eu in the top rank achieving an average rating of 61.6 marks, Alan Leong, Regina Ip, Lee Cheuk-yan, Albert Ho, Jasper Tsang, Emily Lau, Wong Yuk-man and Leung Kwok-hung who ranked the 2nd to 9th and attained 59.5, 58.9, 57.0, 55.6, 54.3, 52.6, 37.8 and 33.7 marks correspondingly. Andrew Cheng, Lau Kwong-wah, Albert Chan and Kam Nai-wai have been on the list once and ranked the 10th to 13th with 56.8, 52.8, 41.2 and 32.6 marks. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Opinion Daily In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to provide readers with accurate information so that they can judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP since July 24 each day a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to the "Opinion Daily" feature page as soon as they are verified by POP. For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from July 14 to 18, 2009 while this survey was conducted from October 15 to 19, 2009. In between these two surveys, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.
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Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, 「Our latest survey conducted shortly after the beginning of this year' Legco session shows that Lau Kwong-wah who entered "top 10" first time in our last survey to occupy the eighth position has dropped out again due to his relatively low recognition rate. Kam Nai-wai enters the list for the first time to occupy the ninth place, probably due to the "dismissal of female assistant" incident. Compared to three months ago, the popularity ratings of most "top 10" Legco members have dropped. Those with significant drops include Emily Lau, Albert Ho, Wong Yuk-man and Leung Kwok-hung, whose ratings have dropped 5.7, 4.9, 3.4 and 2.9 marks respectively. Chairman Jasper Tsang, however, registers a significant increase, to reach his record high rating since January 1997. In terms of relative rankings, Audrey Eu continues to occupy the first place while Regina Ip and Alan Leong rank second and third respectively. For others remaining on the list, their relative positions have changed just within two places. It should be noted, however, that our list of "top 10" only includes Legco members who are best known to the public, ranked according to their support ratings. Some of the other 50 councillors may well have very high or low support ratings, but because they are not the most well-known councillors, they do not appear on the "top 10" list by design. We leave it for our readers to figure out the reasons for the ups and downs of these popularity ratings using detailed records shown in our "Opinion Daily" feature page.」 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next Release (Tentative)
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| Abstract | Latest Figures | Opinion Daily | Commentary | Next Release (Tentative) |
