HKU POP SITE releases popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang, Secretaries of Departments and Directors of Bureaux under the accountability systemBack

Two weeks ago, the 「POP Site」 at http://hkupop.pori.hk hosted by the Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong set up new links and functions like Facebook, Twitter, and RSS. The number of such links and functions has now increased to over 40, in order to help readers follow its content update and share its latest information with others. Moreover, as in previous years, POP will conduct an instant survey after the Chief Executive delivers his policy address tomorrow. Results will be announced the following day.

POP interviewed 1,010 Hong Kong people between October 6 and 11 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. The survey shows that compared to two weeks ago, CE Donald Tsang's support rating and approval rate remain unchanged. His net popularity still stands at positive 7 percentage points. For the Secretaries of Departments, compared to one month ago, the support ratings and approval rates of CS Henry Tang, FS John Tsang and SJ Wong Yan-lung have all gone up significantly, especially for John Tsang whose approval rate surges 17 percentage points. This shows that 「a little illness may be a good thing」. The net approval rates of the three officials now stand at positive 42, 47 and 59 percentage points respectively. Wong Yan-lung remains to be the most popular Secretary of Department. As for the Directors of Bureaux, compared to one month ago, the approval rates of most Directors have remained unchanged. Those with changes beyond sampling error include only Secretary for Development Carrie Lam, with approval rate up 5 percentage points, and Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Rita Lau, with approval rate down 5 percentage points. Among the Directors of Bureaux, Secretary for Education Michael Suen, Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Stephen Lam and Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing register negative popularity, meaning that their disapproval rates are higher than their approval rates. Their net popularity figures now stand at negative 3, negative 3 and negative 1 percentage point. According to the benchmarks set by us quite some time ago, Ambrose Lee now falls under the categories of "ideal" performance. Wong Yan-lung, John Tsang, Matthew Cheung, Henry Tang and Carrie Lam can be labeled as "successful", York Chow, Donald Tsang, Michael Suen, Stephen Lam and Tsang Tak-sing can be labeled as "mediocre", and Ceajer Chan, Edward Yau, Denise Yue, Eva Cheng and Rita Lau can be labeled as "inconspicuous". No official falls under the categories of "depressing" or "disastrous". Director of POP Robert Chung expects that after CE Donald Tsang delivers his policy address tomorrow, there may be another round of fluctuations in the popularity of his leadership team. The sampling error of all approval and disapproval rates is between +/-1 to 4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures needs another calculation. The response rate of the survey is 68%.

POP today releases on schedule via POP SITE the latest popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang, Secretaries of Departments and Directors of Bureaux under the accountability system. All the figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in mid-2009. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:

As different questions involve different sub-samples, the sample errors will vary accordingly. The table below briefly shows the relationship between sample size and maximum sampling errors for the readers to capture the corresponding changes:

「Maximum sampling errors」 occur when survey figures are close to 50%. If the figures are close to 0% or 100%, the sampling error will diminish accordingly. The sampling errors of ratings, however, will depend on the distribution of the raw figures. Since January 2007, POP lists out the sampling errors of all survey figures in detail and explain them in due course. Recent popularity figures of Donald Tsang are summarized as follows:

Figures on the latest popularity ratings of the three Secretaries of Departments under the accountability system are summarized below:

Figures on the latest popularity ratings of Directors of Bureaux under the accountability system are summarized below:

The latest survey showed that, CE Donald Tsang scored 55.2 marks, and 45% supported him as the Chief Executive. Meanwhile, the corresponding ratings of CS Henry Tang, FS John Tsang and SJ Wong Yan-lung were 57.6, 58.7 and 62.1 marks, and 53%, 58% and 64% would vote for their reappointment correspondingly. As for the Directors of Bureaux, results revealed that the top approval rate fell to Secretary for Security Ambrose Lee, attaining 66%. Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung ranked the 2nd and attained 55%. Secretary for Development Carrie Lam and Secretary for Food and Health York Chow ranked the 3rd and 4th places as they gained 51% and 49% vote of confidence from the public respectively. The 5th to 11th ranks went to Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan, Secretary for the Environment Edward Yau, Secretary for the Civil Service Denise Yue, Secretary for Transport and Housing Eva Cheng, Secretary for Education Michael Suen, Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Stephen Lam and Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing, with respective support rates of 37%, 36%, 34%, 33%, 31%, 30% and 29%. Meanwhile, Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Rita Lau occupied the 12th rank, achieving 21%. In other words, only Ambrose Lee, Matthew Cheung and Carrie Lam scored approval rates of over 50% among all Directors of Bureaux.

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to "Opinion Daily" as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey of some items was conducted from September 1 to 4, 2009 while this survey was conducted from October 6 to 11, 2009. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

Note: The following commentary was written by Director of POP Robert Chung.

Our latest survey shows that compared to two weeks ago, CE Donald Tsang's support rating and approval rate remain unchanged. His net popularity still stands at positive 7 percentage points.

For the Secretaries of Departments, compared to one month ago, the support ratings and approval rates of CS Henry Tang, FS John Tsang and SJ Wong Yan-lung have all gone up significantly, especially for John Tsang whose approval rate surges 17 percentage points. This shows that 「a little illness may be a good thing」. The net approval rates of the three officials now stand at positive 42, 47 and 59 percentage points respectively. Wong Yan-lung remains to be the most popular Secretary of Department.

As for the Directors of Bureaux, compared to one month ago, the approval rates of most Directors have remained unchanged. Those with changes beyond sampling error include only Secretary for Development Carrie Lam, with approval rate up 5 percentage points, and Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Rita Lau, with approval rate down 5 percentage points.

Among the Directors of Bureaux, Secretary for Education Michael Suen, Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Stephen Lam and Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing register negative popularity, meaning that their disapproval rates are higher than their approval rates. Their net popularity figures now stand at negative 3, negative 3 and negative 1 percentage point.

According to the benchmarks set by us quite some time ago, Ambrose Lee now falls under the categories of "ideal" performance. Wong Yan-lung, John Tsang, Matthew Cheung, Henry Tang and Carrie Lam can be labeled as "successful", York Chow, Donald Tsang, Michael Suen, Stephen Lam and Tsang Tak-sing can be labeled as "mediocre", and Ceajer Chan, Edward Yau, Denise Yue, Eva Cheng and Rita Lau can be labeled as "inconspicuous". No official falls under the categories of "depressing" or "disastrous". As for the reasons affecting the popularity change of these officials, readers can make their own judgment using detailed records shown in our "Opinion Daily" feature page. After CE Donald Tsang delivers his policy address tomorrow, there may be another round of fluctuations in the popularity of his leadership team.

The following table summarizes the grading of the principal officials for readers' easy reference:

• October 15, 2009 (Thursday) 1pm to 2pm: Instant poll on Policy Address
• October 20, 2009 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Follow-up survey of Policy Address