HKU POP SITE releases the latest findings of people's opinions towards Taiwan issues, Tibet issues and their appraisal of past Chinese leadersBack
| Press Release on September 15, 2009 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Abstract | Latest Figures | Opinion Daily | Commentary | Next Release (Tentative) | | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Abstract The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong interviewed 1,002 Hong Kong people between September 7 and 13 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. The survey finds that compared to three months ago, Hong Kong people's opinion towards national issues like the independence of Taiwan and Tibet, and their confidence in reunification across the strait has not changed much. However, their support to Taiwan rejoining the United Nations has significantly receded, after its jump last time. Net support rate now stands at positive 2 percentage points. Hong Kong people's opposition to the independence of Taiwan and Tibet remains high, both more than 75%, while their confidence in reunification across the strait and the applicability of "one country, two systems" to Taiwan remain positive, at over 50%, although the latter figure has dropped significantly. People's appraisal of the merits and faults of past Chinese leaders Zhao Ziyang and Yang Shangkun has not changed much over the past six months, but their positive appraisal of Deng Xiaoping has dropped 9 percentage points. The sampling error of all percentages released today is between +/-1 and 3 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the response rate of the survey is 70%. Points to note: * The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there. * The sample size of this survey is 1,002 successful interviews, not 1,002 x 69.7% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake. * The maximum sampling error of all percentages is between +/-1 and 3 percentage points at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level". * When quoting percentages of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places in order to match the precision level of the figures. * The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Latest Figures POP today releases via the POP Site the latest figures of Hong Kong people's opinion towards Taiwan, Tibet issues and their appraisal of past Chinese leaders. All the figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2008 year-end. Herewith the contact information for the survey:
Recent figures of people's opinions towards Taiwan and Tibet issues are summarized as follows:
# Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful. Results obtained in the first half of September revealed that 78% of Hong Kong people interviewed opposed the independence of Taiwan whereas only 12% showed support. Meanwhile, 76% objected Tibet becoming independent whilst only 9% held a positive view. Besides, 57% were confident in the ultimate reunification across the strait whilst 32% expressed no confidence. Moreover, 42% supported Taiwan rejoining the United Nations, 40% opposed it. As for the applicability of 'one country, two systems' to Taiwan, 53% gave a positive view while 34% gave a negative answer. As for respondents' appraisals of the merits and faults of past Chinese leaders, POP has been tracking people's appraisal of these leaders since 1995, but our series on Mao Zedong, Zhou Enlai and Chiang Kai Shek stopped in 2003, while that on more recently deceased leaders Zhao Ziyang, Yang Shangkun and Deng Xiaoping continued. The most recent results are summarized as follows:
# Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful. According to our latest survey, those considering Deng Xiaoping and Zhao Ziyang have accrued more merits than faults in the development of China accounted for 74% and 54% respectively. For Yang Shangkun, 14% of the respondents thought he has accrued more merits than faults, 20% found more faults than merits in Yang. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Opinion Daily In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to "Opinion Daily" as soon as they are verified by POP. For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from March 9 to 11, 2009 while this survey was conducted from September 7 to 13, 2009. In between these two surveys, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.
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| Commentary Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "Although both Dala Lama and Rabiye Qadir in exile have been in the limelight recently, our latest survey shows that compared to three months ago, Hong Kong people's opinion towards national issues like the independence of Taiwan and Tibet, and their confidence in reunification across the strait has not changed much. However, their support to Taiwan rejoining the United Nations has significantly receded, after its jump last time. Net support rate now stands at positive 2 percentage points. Hong Kong people's opposition to the independence of Taiwan and Tibet remains high, both more than 75%, while their confidence in reunification across the strait and the applicability of 'one country, two systems' to Taiwan remain positive, at over 50%, although the latter figure has dropped significantly. People's appraisal of the merits and faults of past Chinese leaders Zhao Ziyang and Yang Shangkun has not changed much over the past six months, but their positive appraisal of Deng Xiaoping has dropped 9 percentage points. As for the reasons affecting the ups and downs of different figures, readers are free to form their own judgment using the detailed records displayed in our 'Opinion Daily'." | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next Release (Tentative)
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| | Abstract | Latest Figures | Opinion Daily | Commentary | Next Release (Tentative) | |
