HKU POP SITE releases the latest popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang and the HKSAR GovernmentBack

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong is being commissioned by the School of Public Health of the same university to recruit voluntary families to participate in a study on the proportion of infections of the novel strain of H1N1 swine influenza, through random telephone interviews. The study would facilitate the pandemic preparedness for our government as well as health authorities around the world. Voluntary family members will be invited to have two rounds of small blood samples taking, details of which will be explained during the recruitment exercise. We sincerely plead for people's cooperation. This study is conducted by the School of Public Health in collaboration with Queen Mary Hospital and the Centre for Health Protection of Department of Health. It is funded by the Area of Excellence Scheme of the Hong Kong University Grants Committee and the Research Fund for the Control of Infectious Diseases, Hong Kong. The study has been approved by the Institutional Review Board of the University of Hong Kong/ Hospital Authority Hong Kong West Cluster. If people have any questions in relation to the study, please contact the School of Public Health hotline at 8170-0183, or by email to [email protected], or visit the following website: http://web.hku.hk/~kkocuhk/serofluc.htm.

POP interviewed 1,020 Hong Kong people between 18 and 24 August, 2009 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. The survey finds that compared to two weeks ago, both the support rating and approval rate of CE Donald Tsang have remained stable. Both changes are within sampling errors and CE's net popularity now stands at positive 4 percentage points. Compared to six months ago, people's satisfaction with CE's policy direction has increased by 2 percentage points, while dissatisfaction rate has dropped by 7 percentage points. Net satisfaction now stands at positive 5 percentage points. Regarding the popularity of the SAR Government, compared to a month ago, people's satisfaction rate has notably dropped by 4 percentage points, while dissatisfaction rate has gone up by 4 percentage points. The government's net popularity has gone down from positive 12 to positive 4 percentage points. The sampling error of all percentages is +/-3 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of the rating figure is +/-1.1 marks. The response rate of the survey is 67%.

Points to note:
* The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
* The sample size of this survey is 1,020 successful interviews, not 1,020 x 66.7% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
* The sampling error of all figures is +/-3 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures needs another calculation. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.1 and sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level". 
* When quoting percentages of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used, in order to match the precision level of the figures.
* The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

POP today releases on schedule via the POP Site the latest popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang and the HKSAR Government. As a general practice, all the figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2008 year-end. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:

Date of survey	Overall sample size	Response rate	Sampling error of percentages*
18-24/8/09	1,020	66.7%	+/-3%

* Calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Sampling errors of ratings are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.

Recent popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang and people's satisfaction of the overall performance of the HKSAR Government are summarized as follows:

Date of survey	16-21/6/09	6-12/7/09	20-23/7/09	4-10/8/09	18-24/8/09	Latest change^
Sample base	1,012	1,006	1,003	1,001	1,020	--
Overall response rate	69.0%	68.8%	68.7%	70.5%	66.7%	--
Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding & error*	--
Rating of CE Donald Tsang	55.4#	53.8#	54.1	54.7	54.5 +/-1.1	-0.2
Vote of confidence in CE Donald Tsang	45%	40%#	41%	41%	42% +/-3%	+1%
Vote of no confidence in CE Donald Tsang	39%	45%#	42%	41%	38% +/-3%	-3%
Satisfaction rate of Tsang's policy direction**	--	--	--	--	30% +/-3%	--
Dissatisfaction rate of Tsang's policy direction**	--	--	--	--	25% +/-3%	--
Satisfaction rate of SARG performance**	31%	--	36%#	--	32% +/-3%	-4%#
Dissatisfaction rate of SARG performance**	26%	--	24%	--	28% +/-3%	+4%#

* Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.1, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
** Collapsed from a 5-point scale.
^ The polling cycle for different items varies. Parallel comparison across items should be synchronized. For people's satisfaction with Donald Tsang's policy direction, the last survey was conducted in February 2009 and the positive and negative figures were 28% and 32% back then. This question only used sub-sample in last survey. The sub-sample size was 663.
# Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

The latest survey showed that, CE Donald Tsang scored 54.5 marks, and 42% supported him as the Chief Executive while 38% held an opposite view. As for people's satisfaction with Donald Tsang's policy direction, 30% of the respondents showed satisfaction while 25% were not satisfied. Regarding people's appraisal of the overall performance of the HKSAR Government, the latest figures revealed that 32% were satisfied, whereas another 28% were dissatisfied.

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to "Opinion Daily" as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, using the previous survey as a reference point for comparison, our "Opinion Daily" for this release starts on February 25, 2009, because the previous survey of some items was conducted from February 16 to 18, 2009 while this survey was conducted from August 18 to 24, 2009. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

21/8/09	Chief Executive Donald Tsang seeks advice for coming policy address from media.
6/8/09	Many newspapers comment on the first trial of drug-testing scheme at secondary schools of Tai Po in December.
23/7/09	Hong Kong Government rolls out proposals to toughen air quality standards.
10/7/09	Review report on post-service outside work for Directorate civil servants is released.
3/7/09	Government proposes a three-tier system for grading the urgency of ambulance service.
1/7/09	Tens of thousands take to the streets to call for diversified demands.
16/6/09	The executive council proposes a pay cut of 5.38% for all civil servants in the upper salary band.
11/6/09	All primary schools and kindergartens are suspended for 2 weeks to prevent spread of the swine flu.
4/6/09	An estimated 150,000 people gather in Victoria Park for the 20th anniversary of June 4th Incident.
29/5/09	Government unveils the adjustments to the medium-of-instruction policy.
26/5/09	Many newspapers report that Hong Kong government announces a $16.8 billion economic relief package.
18/5/09	Hong Kong's 160,000 civil servants may face pay cuts or freezes.
8/5/09	7-day quarantine ends for Metropark Hotel.
26/4/09	Local government issues a string of precautionary measures.
31/3/09	Tang to head new safety task force after inquest into teen tragedy.
25/2/09	John Tsang delivers budget speech with short-term strategies of countering financial crisis and preserving job.

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "Our latest survey shows that compared to two weeks ago, both the support rating and approval rate of CE Donald Tsang have remained stable. Both changes are within sampling errors and CE's net popularity now stands at positive 4 percentage points. Compared to six months ago, people's satisfaction with CE's policy direction has increased by 2 percentage points, while dissatisfaction rate has dropped by 7 percentage points. Net satisfaction now stands at positive 5 percentage points. Regarding the popularity of the SAR Government, compared to a month ago, people's satisfaction rate has notably dropped by 4 percentage points, while dissatisfaction rate has gone up by 4 percentage points. The government's net popularity has gone down from positive 12 to positive 4 percentage points. As for the reasons affecting the ups and downs of these figures, we leave it to our readers to form their own judgment using detailed records displayed in our 'Opinion Daily'."

• August 27, 2009 (Thursday) 1pm to 2pm: Top 10 Political Groups
• September 1, 2009 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Six indicators of Trust and Confidence