HKU POP SITE releases the latest popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang and Principal OfficialsBack
| Press Release on August 11, 2009 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Special Announcement: About voluntary blood test recruitment | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Special Announcement: About voluntary blood test recruitment The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong is being commissioned by the School of Public Health of the same university to recruit voluntary families to participate in a study on the proportion of infections of the novel strain of H1N1 swine influenza, through random telephone interviews. The study would facilitate the pandemic preparedness for our government as well as health authorities around the world. Voluntary family members will be invited to have two rounds of small blood samples taking, details of which will be explained during the recruitment exercise. We sincerely plead for people's cooperation. This study is conducted by the School of Public Health in collaboration with Queen Mary Hospital and the Centre for Health Protection of Department of Health. It is funded by the Area of Excellence Scheme of the Hong Kong University Grants Committee and the Research Fund for the Control of Infectious Diseases, Hong Kong. The study has been approved by the Institutional Review Board of the University of Hong Kong/ Hospital Authority Hong Kong West Cluster. If people have any questions in relation to the study, please contact the School of Public Health hotline at 8170-0183, or by email to [email protected], or visit the following website: http://web.hku.hk/~kkocuhk/serofluc.htm. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Abstract POP interviewed 1,001 Hong Kong people between August 4 and 10 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. The survey finds that the popularity of CE Donald Tsang continues to recover after its significant drop around July 1. Tsang's support rating is now 54.7 marks. His net approval rate now stands at zero. Our biannual survey shows that only 30% of the people consider Donald Tsang doing a good job as CE while 30% think the opposite, which is record high since he becomes CE. For the Secretaries of Departments, compared to one month ago, the support ratings and approval rates of CS Henry Tang, FS John Tsang and SJ Wong Yan-lung have all remained stable, with respective net approval rates of positive 28, 23 and 56 percentage points. SJ Wong Yan-lung remains to be the most popular Secretary of Department. As for the Directors of Bureaux and in terms of approval rates, compared to one month ago, with the exception of Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung and Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing, whose approval rates go up significantly by 6 percentage points, the changes in approval rates of the other Directors of Bureaux are all within sampling errors. Meanwhile, the approval rates of Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung and Secretary for Food and Health York Chow register record high since they took the respective position. Moreover, only Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Stephen Lam registers negative popularity, meaning that his disapproval rate is higher than his approval rate. His net popularity is now negative 5 percentage points. According to the benchmarks set by us quite some time ago, Ambrose Lee now falls under the categories of "ideal" performance. Wong Yan-lung, Matthew Cheung and York Chow can be labeled as "successful", Carrie Lam, Henry Tang, John Tsang, Donald Tsang, Edward Yau, Tsang Tak-sing, Michael Suen and Stephen Lam can be labeled as "mediocre", and Eva Cheng, Ceajer Chan, Denise Yue and Rita Lau can be labeled as "inconspicuous". No official falls under the categories of "depressing" or "disastrous". The sampling error of all approval and disapproval rates is between +/-2 to 4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures needs another calculation. The response rate of the survey is 70%.
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Latest Figures POP today releases on schedule via POP SITE the latest popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang and Principal Officials under the accountability system. All the figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2008 year-end. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:
As different questions involve different sub-samples, the sample errors will vary accordingly. The table below briefly shows the relationship between sample size and maximum sampling errors for the readers to capture the corresponding changes:
「Maximum sampling errors」 occur when survey figures are close to 50%. If the figures are close to 0% or 100%, the sampling error will diminish accordingly. The sampling errors of ratings, however, will depend on the distribution of the raw figures. Since January 2007, POP lists out the sampling errors of all survey figures in detail and explain them in due course. Recent popularity figures of Donald Tsang are summarized as follows:
** Collapsed from a 5-point scale. ^ The polling cycle for this item is different from the rest. The last survey was conducted in early February 2009 and the positive and negative figures were 30% and 27% back then. # Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful. Figures on the latest popularity ratings of the three Secretaries of Departments under the accountability system are summarized below:
** Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-1.3, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site. # Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful. Figures on the latest popularity ratings of Directors of Bureaux under the accountability system are summarized below:
** Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site. # Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful. ^ The approval rates of Secretary for Transport and Housing Eva Cheng and Secretary for the Environment Edward Yau are 37.3% and 37.2% respectively. ^^ The approval rates of Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing and Secretary for Education Michael Suen are 33.8% and 33.7% respectively. ^^^ The approval rates of Secretary for the Civil Service Denise Yue and Secretary for the Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Stephen Lam are 28.9% and 28.7% respectively. The latest survey showed that, CE Donald Tsang scored 54.7 marks, and 41% supported him as the Chief Executive. By using a 5-point scale, 30% of the respondents thought Tsang was doing a good job as the CE, while 30% held the opposite view. Meanwhile, the corresponding ratings of CS Henry Tang, FS John Tsang and SJ Wong Yan-lung were 56.1, 53.3 and 61.5 marks, and 44%, 43% and 62% would vote for their reappointment correspondingly. As for the Directors of Bureaux, results revealed that the top approval rate fell to Secretary for Security Ambrose Lee, attaining 70%. Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung, Secretary for Food and Health York Chow and Secretary for Development Carrie Lam occupied the 2nd to 4th ranks with respective support rates of 58%, 55% and 47%. Secretary for Transport and Housing Eva Cheng and Secretary for Environment Edward Yau shared the 5th place as they both gained 37% vote of confidence from the public. Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing and Secretary for Education Michael Suen shared the 7th place as they both gained 34% vote of confidence from the public. Meanwhile, Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan, Secretary for the Civil Service Denise Yue, Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Stephen Lam and Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Rita Lau occupied the 9th to 12th ranks, achieving a respective of 31%, 29%, 29% and 23%. In other words, only Ambrose Lee, Matthew Cheung and York Chow scored approval rates of over 50% among all Directors of Bureaux.
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Opinion Daily In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to "Opinion Daily" as soon as they are verified by POP. For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey of some items was conducted from February 2 to 4, 2009 while this survey was conducted from August 4 to 10, 2009. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
Our latest survey shows that the popularity of CE Donald Tsang continues to recover after its significant drop around July 1. Tsang's support rating is now 54.7 marks. His net approval rate now stands at zero. Our biannual survey shows that only 30% of the people consider Donald Tsang doing a good job as CE while 30% think the opposite, which is record high since he becomes CE. For the Secretaries of Departments, compared to one month ago, the support ratings and approval rates of CS Henry Tang, FS John Tsang and SJ Wong Yan-lung have all remained stable, with respective net approval rates of positive 28, 23 and 56 percentage points. SJ Wong Yan-lung remains to be the most popular Secretary of Department. As for the Directors of Bureaux and in terms of approval rates, compared to one month ago, with the exception of Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung and Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing, whose approval rates go up significantly by 6 percentage points, the changes in approval rates of the other Directors of Bureaux are all within sampling errors. Meanwhile, the approval rates of Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung and Secretary for Food and Health York Chow register record high since they took the respective position. Moreover, only Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Stephen Lam registers negative popularity, meaning that his disapproval rate is higher than his approval rate. His net popularity is now negative 5 percentage points. According to the benchmarks set by us quite some time ago, Ambrose Lee now falls under the categories of "ideal" performance. Wong Yan-lung, Matthew Cheung and York Chow can be labeled as "successful", Carrie Lam, Henry Tang, John Tsang, Donald Tsang, Edward Yau, Tsang Tak-sing, Michael Suen and Stephen Lam can be labeled as "mediocre", and Eva Cheng, Ceajer Chan, Denise Yue and Rita Lau can be labeled as "inconspicuous". No official falls under the categories of "depressing" or "disastrous". As for the reasons affecting the popularity change of these officials, readers can make their own judgment using detailed records shown in our "Opinion Daily" feature page.The following table summarizes the grading of the principal officials for readers' easy reference:
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next Release (Tentative)
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Special Announcement: About voluntary blood test recruitment | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
