HKU POP SITE releases survey findings on the Executive Councilors, Under Secretaries and Political AssistantsBack

 
Press Release on July 30, 2009

| Abstract | (1) Top 5 members of Executive Council
| (2) Under Secretaries and Political Assistants | Next Release (Tentative)
| Detailed Findings (Rating of Top Five Executive Council Non-Official Members /
Popularity of Under Secretaries and Political Assistants
) |


Abstract

The Public Opinion Programme at the University of Hong Kong conducted a double stage survey on the ranking of non-official Executive Councillors, Under Secretaries and Political Assistants in July, by means of random telephone surveys conducted by real interviewers. The surveys find that compared to three months ago, the popularity ratings of 'top 5' non-official Executive Councillors have all dropped significantly, but their relative rankings have remained stable. Ronald Arculli and Leung Chun-ying continue to rank first and second, while Cheng Yiu-tong and Lau Kong-wah swap positions to occupy the 3rd and 4th places. Lau Wong-fat continues to stay at the 5th place. Regarding Under Secretaries and Political Assistants, it was found that all 8 Under Secretaries have above-zero recognition rates, which is already a progress. However, 5 out of 9 Political Assistants have zero recognition, this is a backward slip. As no official has a recognition rate up to 4%, people are still not that familiar with the team. A year has passed since the government announced the appointment of these officials, but over one-quarter of them still have zero recognition. The situation is not good. The sampling errors of the ratings registered fall between +/-1.4 and 1.7 while the response rate of the rating survey is 69%.

(1) Top 5 members of Executive Council

POP today releases on schedule via the "POP SITE" the latest ratings of the Top 5 members of Executive Council. As a general practice, all figures have already been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2008 year-end. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:

Date of survey

Overall sample size

Response rate

Sampling error of percentages/ratings*

14-18/7/09
(First stage naming survey)

1,010

67.4%

+/-3%

20-23/7/09
(Second stage rating survey)

1,003

68.7%

+/-1.7

* Calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Sampling errors of ratings are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.

The research design of our "Top 5 Executive Councilors" is similar to that of our "Top 10" series, it is explained in detail under "Survey Method" in our web page. The top councillors listed in our latest survey were all those who obtained the highest unprompted mentions in our first stage naming survey conducted in mid-July. In that survey, respondents could name, unaided, up to 5 non-official Executive Councillors whom they knew best. Leung Chun-ying, Lau Kong Wah, Lau Wong-fat, Cheng Yiu-tong, Ronald Arculli, Anthony Cheung, Laura M Cha, Lawrence Lau Juen-yee, Anna Wu Hung-yuk and Charles Lee were the ten most frequently mentioned councillors. Please refer to the relevant table in our website for the rest of the list. Those 6 who were named most frequently then entered into the second stage rating survey. During the second stage rating survey conducted in second half of July, respondents were asked to rate each short-listed councillor in turn using a 0-100 scale. 0 indicates absolutely no support, 100 indicates absolute support, and 50 means half-half. After calculation, the bottom 1 councillors in terms of recognition rate was dropped; the remaining 6 were then ranked according to their support ratings attained to become the top 6 Executive Councillors. Recent ratings of the top 5 members of Executive Council are summarized as follows:

Date of survey

23-25/7/08

27-29/10/08

12-13/1/2009

6-9/4/09

20-23/7/09

Latest change

Sample base

1,007

1,015

1,015

1,010

1,003

--

Overall response rate

67.4%

70.3%

70.2%

67.5%

68.7%

--

Finding / Recognition rate

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding and Error*

Recognition rate

--

Ronald Arculli

63.3 [1] #

54.9 [1] #

55.5 [1]

57.1# [1]

51.1+/-1.4 [1]

81.5%

-6.0 #

Leung Chun-ying

56.3 [3] #

47.3 [4] #

49.1 [5] #

51.4# [2]

46.7+/-1.5 [2]

86.9%

-4.7 #

Cheng Yiu-tong

56.0 [4]

48.6 [3] #

49.6 [4]

51.0 [4]

42.6+/-1.6 [3]

78.7%

-8.4 #

Lau Kong-wah

Not a Exco member then

46.5 [5]

49.8 [3] #

51.1 [3]

41.4+/-1.7 [4]

77.0%

-9.7 #

Lau Wong-fat

Not a Exco member then

46.4 [5]

37.6+/-1.5 [5]

87.4%

-8.8 #

Anthony Cheung

58.4 [**]

53.7 [2] #

55.2 [2]

55.6 [**]

49.0+/-1.6 [**]

60.3%

-6.6 #

Laura Cha

--

--

49.3 [**]

--

--

--

--

Bernard Chan

58.4 [**]#

53.2 [**]#

--

--

--

--

--

Selina Chow

58.4 [2] #

--

--

--

--

--

--

Jasper Tsang

53.4 [5] #

--

--

--

--

--

--

* Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level", meaning that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-1.7 at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
** Ratings with recognition rates not reaching top 5 in either stage of survey are not available.
[ ] Number in square brackets indicates rankings.
# Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

The latest survey conducted in second-half of July showed that Ronald Arculli was the most popularly supported non-official Executive Councillor, attaining 51.1 marks. The 2nd to 4th ranks went to Leung Chun-ying, Cheng Yiu-tong and Lau Kong-wah, with 46.7, 42.6 and 41.4 marks respectively. The 5th rank went to Lau Wong-fat with 37.6 marks. The mean score obtained by these top 5 non-official Executive Councillors was 43.9 marks. For this latest survey, Anthony Cheung obtained a support rating of 49.0 marks, but he was dropped due to his relatively low recognition rate. The overall ratings ranked according to results obtained over the past year are tabulated as follows:

Date of survey

27-29/10/08

12-13/1/09

6-9/4/09

20-23/7/09

No. of times on top 5

Average rating*

Overall ranking**

Ronald Arculli

54.9

55.5

57.1

51.1

4

54.7

1

Leung Chun-ying

47.3

49.1

51.4

46.7

4

48.7

2

Cheng Yiu-tong

48.6

49.6

51.0

42.6

4

48.0

3

Lau Kong-wah

46.5

49.8

51.1

41.4

4

47.2

4

Anthony Cheung

53.7

55.2

^

^

2

54.4

5

Lau Wong-fat

-

-

46.4

37.6

2

42.0

6

* "Average rating" is the average of all ratings obtained by Executive Councillors over the past 4 surveys.
** "Overall ranking" is first determined by their number of times on top 10, and then their average ratings.
^ Ratings with recognition rates not reaching top 5 in either stage of survey are not available.

The overall rankings in the past year showed that four non-official Executive Councillors have been on the list for four times. Ronald Arculli, Leung Chun-ying, Cheung Yiu-yong and Lau Kong-wah achieved an average rating of 54.7, 48.7, 48.0 and 47.2 marks, Anthony Cheung and Lau Wong-fat have been on the list two times and ranked 5th to 6th with 54.4 and 42.0 marks respectively.

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "Compared to three months ago, the popularity ratings of 'top 5' non-official Executive Councillors have all dropped significantly, but their relative rankings have remained stable. Ronald Arculli and Leung Chun-ying continue to rank first and second, while Cheng Yiu-tong and Lau Kong-wah swap positions to occupy the 3rd and 4th places. Lau Wong-fat continues to stay at the 5th place. It should be noted, however, that our list of 'top five' only includes non-official councillors best known to the public, ranked according to their support ratings. Some of the other councillors may well have very high or low support ratings, but because they are not the most well-known councillors, they do not appear on the list by design. As for the reasons affecting the ups and downs of these popularity ratings, we leave it to our readers to form their own judgment using the detailed records displayed in the 'Opinion Daily' of our POP Site."

(2) Under Secretaries and Political Assistants

In May 2008, the HKSAR Government announced the list of newly employed Under Secretaries and Political Assistants. POP has now conducted a survey once every three months to gauge people's familiarity with these officials, as a test of their popularity. Herewith the contact information for the survey:

Date of survey

Overall sample size

Response rate

Sampling error of percentages*

14-18/7/09

1,010

67.4%

+/-3%

* Calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.

Herewith the result of our latest survey on "people's most familiar Under Secretaries":

Date of survey

2-6/1/09

1-5/4/2009

14-18/7/09

Latest change

Sub-sample base

666

516

529

--

Latest finding/Rank

Percentage

Percentage

Percentage and Error*

Rank

--

Under Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Gregory So Kam-leung

1.3%#

0.7%

3.1% +/-1%

1

+2.4%#

Under Secretary for the Education Kenneth Chen Wei-on

0.5%

1.1%

2.0% +/-1%

2

+0.9%

Under Secretary for Food and Health Professor Gabriel Matthew Leung

0.2%

0.0%

1.5% +/-1%

3

+1.5%#

Under Secretary for the Environment Dr. Kitty Poon Kit

1.3%

0.8%^

1.2% +/-1%

4

+0.4%

Under Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Julia Leung Fung-yee

0.4%#

0.8%^

0.9% +/-1%

5

+0.1%

Under Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Raymond Tam Chi-yuen

0.4%

0.0%

0.8%^ +/-1%

6

+0.8%

Under Secretary for Transport and Housing Yau Shing-mu

1.1%

0.2%

0.8%^ +/-1%

7

+0.6%

Under Secretary for Home Affairs Florence Hui Hiu-fai

0.0%

0.6%

0.2% +/-1%

8

-0.4%

Wrongly answered the name of Secretaries of Departments/Directors of Bureaux

2.8%#

2.9%

3.3% +/-1%

--

+0.4%

Wrongly answered the name of Political Assistants

2.2%#

2.1%

1.6% +/-1%

--

-0.5%

Wrongly answered the name of others

1.5%

0.8%

3.6% +/-1%

--

+2.8%#

Don't know

90.0%#

91.3%

86.0% +/-3%

--

-5.3%#

* Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
# Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.
^ The percentages of respondents who could name Raymond Tam Chi-yuen and Yau Shing-mu were 0.81% and 0.80% respectively. Hence Tam ranked the 6th while Yau was placed at 7th rank.

Herewith the result of our latest survey on "people's most familiar Political Assistants":

Date of survey

2-6/1/09

1-5/4/2009

14-18/7/09

Latest change

Sub-sample base

448

513

529

--

Latest finding/Rank

Percentage

Percentage

Percentage and Error*

Rank

--

Political Assistant to the Secretary for Education Jeremy Young Chit-on

0.5%

0.7%

0.9% +/-1%

1

+0.2%

Political Assistant to the Secretary for Labour & Welfare Zandra Mok Yee-tuen

1.0%

0.5%

0.8% +/-1%

2

+0.3%

Political Assistant to the Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Katherine Ng Kit-shuen

0.3%

0.0%

0.4% +/-1%

3

+0.4%

Political Assistant to the Financial Secretary Frankie Yip

0.0%

0.0%

0.3% +/-1%

4

+0.3%

Political Assistant to the Secretary for Food & Health Paul Chan Chi-yuen

0.3%

0.5%

0.0%

--

-0.5%

Political Assistant to the Secretary for Development Raymond Cheung Man-to

0.3%

0.4%

0.0%

--

-0.4%

Political Assistant to the Secretary for Environment Linda Choy Siu-min

0.0%

0.3%

0.0%

--

-0.3%

Political Assistant to the Secretary for Security Victor Lo Yik-kee

0.2%

0.2%

0.0%

--

-0.2%

Political Assistant to the Secretary for Home Affairs Caspar Tsui

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

--

--

Wrongly answered the name of Secretaries of Departments/Directors of Bureaux

1.5%

1.7%

0.5% +/-1%

--

-1.2%#

Wrongly answered the name of Under Secretaries

1.1%

0.9%

1.1% +/-1%

--

+0.2%

Wrongly answered the name of others

2.7%

1.4% #

1.6% +/-1%

--

+0.2%

Don't know

92.4%

93.5%

94.9% +/-2%

--

+1.4%

* Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
# Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

In our naming survey conducted in mid-July, respondents could name, unaided, Under Secretaries and Political Assistants whom they knew best. Results showed that all eight Under Secretaries were mentioned, they were Gregory So, Chen Wei-on, Gabriel Matthew Leung, Kitty Poon, Julia Leung, Raymond Tam Chi-yuen, Yau Shing-mu and Florence Hui. The corresponding percentages of respondents who could name these figures were 3.1%, 2.0%, 1.5%, 1.2% and four obtaining less than 1%. Yet, 86.0% of the respondents could not recall any names of Under Secretaries. As for Political Assistants, only four Political Assistants were mentioned, they were Jeremy Young, Zandra Mok, Katherine Ng and Frankie Yip. The corresponding percentages of respondents who could name these figures were all less than 1%. Yet, 94.9% of the respondents could not recall any names of Political Assistants.

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "In our latest survey, all 8 Under Secretaries have above-zero recognition rates, which is already a progress. However, 5 out of 9 Political Assistants have zero recognition, this is a backward slip. As no official has a recognition rate up to 4%, people are still not that familiar with the team. A year has passed since the government announced the appointment of these officials, but over one-quarter of them still have zero recognition. The situation is not good. It should be noted, however, that our ranking of recognition is based on respondents' ability to name these officials unaided. This kind of familiarity measurement is not the same as prompted ratings, and the results may not necessarily indicate people's support of these officials. In other words, those high on the list may not be the most supported figures, while those lower down may have a different ranking if we use a prompting method. As for the reasons affecting the popularity of these officials, we leave it to our readers to form their own judgment using the detailed records displayed in the 'Opinion Daily' of our POP Site."

Next Release (Tentative)
  • August 4, 2009 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Freedom indicators

 

| Abstract | (1) Top 5 members of Executive Council
| (2) Under Secretaries and Political Assistants | Next Release (Tentative)
| Detailed Findings (Rating of Top Five Executive Council Non-Official Members /
Popularity of Under Secretaries and Political Assistants
) |