HKU POP SITE releases the latest popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang and the HKSAR GovernmentBack

Press Release on July 28, 2009

Abstract

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong interviewed 1,003 Hong Kong people between 20 and 23 July by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. The survey finds that after their significant drops around July 1, both the support rating and approval rate of CE Donald Tsang are slowly recovering. However, compared to two weeks ago, their changes are both within sampling errors. CE's net popularity now stands at negative 1 percentage point. Regarding the popularity of the SAR Government, compared to a month ago, people's satisfaction rate has increased 5 percentage points to 36%, which is record high since June 2008. The government's net popularity has increased from positive 5 to positive 12 percentage points. The sampling error of all percentages is +/-3 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figure is +/-1.3 marks. The response rate of the survey is 69%.

Points to note:
* The address of the 「HKU POP SITE」 is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
* The sample size of this survey is 1,003 successful interviews, not 1,003 x 68.7% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
* The maximum sampling error of all percentages is +/-3 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figure is +/-1.3 marks. 「95% confidence level」 means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state 「sampling error below +/-3% at 95% confidence level for percentage figures, and +/-1.3 for rating figure」.
* When quoting percentages of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used, in order to match the precision level of the figures.
* The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses 「computerized random telephone survey」 to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

Latest Figures

POP today releases on schedule via the "POP SITE" the latest popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang and the HKSAR Government. As a general practice, all figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2008 year-end. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:

Date of survey	Overall sample size	Response rate	Sampling error of percentages*
20-23/7/09	1,003	68.7%	+/-3%

* Calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. 「95% confidence level」 means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Sampling errors of ratings are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.

Recent popularity figures of Donald Tsang and people's satisfaction of the overall performance of the HKSAR Government are summarized as follows:

Date of survey	19-22/5/09	1-3/6/09	16-21/6/09	6-12/7/09	20-23/7/09	Latest Change
Sample base	1,011	1,008	1,012	1,006	1,003	--
Overall response rate	68.3%	65.0%	69.0%	68.8%	68.7%	--
Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding & error*	--
Rating of CE Donald Tsang	54.4#	53.4	55.4#	53.8#	54.1 +/-1.3	+0.3
Vote of confidence in CE Donald Tsang	47%	43%#	45%	40%#	41% +/-3%	+1%
Vote of no confidence in CE Donald Tsang	36%	40%#	39%	45%#	42% +/-3%	-3%
Satisfaction rate of SARG performance**	34%#	--	31%	--	36% +/-3%	+5%#
Dissatisfaction rate of SARG performance**	25%#	--	26%	--	24% +/-3%	-2%

* Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level. 「95% confidence level」 means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state 「sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.3, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level」 when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
** Collapsed from a 5-point scale.
# Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

The latest survey conducted in second half of July showed that, CE Donald Tsang scored 54.1 marks, and 41% supported him as the Chief Executive while another 42% opposed. Regarding people's appraisal of the overall performance of the HKSAR Government, the latest figures revealed that 36% were satisfied, whereas 24% were dissatisfied.

Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to "Opinion Daily" as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey of some items was conducted from June 16 to 21, 2009 while this survey was conducted from July 20 to 23, 2009. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

22/7/09	16 Banks repays HK$6.3 billion to 90% investors who bought Lehman Brothers minibonds for compensation.
18/7/09	A man with mental illness stabs his wife and daughter with scissors.
17/7/09	Norman Chan Tak-lam becomes the new chief of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority.
16/7/09	Hong Kong records its first death linked to H1N1.
13/7/09	Police stop 5 vehicles to form a roadblock against illegal road racers on the Kwun Tong bypass.
10/7/09	Review report on post-service outside work for Directorate civil servants is released.
3/7/09	Government proposes a three-tier system for grading the urgency of ambulance service.
1/7/09	Tens of thousands take to the streets to call for diversified demands.
30/6/09	Disney invests about HK$3.63 billion to expand the theme park.
29/6/09	Mainland China and Hong Kong sign an agreement to use RMB for cross-border trade starting from next month.
25/6/09	Police officers cancel their protest march planned for Sunday.
24/6/09	Many newspapers report the controversial case about the will of billionaire Nina Wang.
22/6/09	The Taskforce on Economic Challenges proposes measures to boost the development of six predominant industries.
18/6/09	Five more schools are ordered to close after new swine flu cases are confirmed.
16/6/09	The executive council proposes a pay cut of 5.38% for all civil servants in the upper salary band.

Commentary

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, 「Our latest survey shows that after their significant drops around July 1, both the support rating and approval rate of CE Donald Tsang are slowly recovering. However, compared to two weeks ago, their changes are both within sampling errors. CE's net popularity now stands at negative 1 percentage point. Regarding the popularity of the SAR Government, compared to a month ago, people's satisfaction rate has increased 5 percentage points to 36%, which is record high since June 2008. The government's net popularity has increased from positive 5 to positive 12 percentage points. As for the reasons affecting the ups and downs of these figures, we leave it to our readers to form their own judgment using detailed records displayed in our "Opinion Daily".」

Next Release (Tentative)

July 30, 2009 (Thursday) 1pm to 2pm: Popularity of Executive Councilors, Under Secretaries and Political Assistants
August 4, 2009 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Freedom indicators