HKU POP SITE releases popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang, Secretaries of Departments and Directors of Bureaux under the accountability systemBack

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong interviewed 1,006 Hong Kong people between 6 and 12 July by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. The survey finds that both in terms of support rating and approval rate, the popularity of CE Donald Tsang has dropped again after its rebound two weeks ago, probably due to the effect of July 1 rally. Tsang's disapproval rate now stands at 45%, which is record high since he became CE. His net approval rate now stands at negative 5 percentage points. For the Secretaries of Departments, compared to one month ago, the support ratings and approval rates of CS Henry Tang, FS John Tsang and SJ Wong Yan-lung have all remained stable, with respective net approval rates of positive 32, 23 and 58 percentage points. SJ Wong Yan-lung remains to be the most popular Secretary of Department. As for the Directors of Bureaux and in terms of approval rates, compared to one month ago, with the exception of Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan, whose approval rate goes up significantly by 5 percentage points, and Secretary for the Civil Service Denise Yue, whose approval rate goes down significantly by 6 percentage points, the changes in approval rates of the other Directors of Bureaux are all within sampling errors. In terms of disapproval rate, with the exception of Secretary for Environment Edward Yau, and Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan, the disapproval rates of all other Directors of Bureaux have gone up. Those with disapproval rate climbed beyond sampling errors include Secretary for the Civil Service Denise Yue, Secretary for Food and Health York Chow, Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Stephen Lam, Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing, and Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung. Their disapproval rates have gone up by 8, 6, 6, 6 and 4 percentage points respectively. Moreover, negative popularity has reappeared among Secretaries and Directors, as Secretary for Education Michael Suen, Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Stephen Lam, and Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing register net popularity of negative 7, 5 and 2 percentage points correspondingly. According to the benchmarks set by us quite some time ago, Ambrose Lee, now falls under the categories of "'ideal" performance. Wong Yan-lung, Matthew Cheung and York Chow can be labeled as "successful", Carrie Lam, Henry Tang, John Tsang, Donald Tsang, Edward Yau, Michael Suen, Stephen Lam and Tsang Tak-sing can be labeled as "mediocre", and Eva Cheng, Ceajer Chan, Denise Yue and Rita Lau can be labeled as "inconspicuous". No official falls under the categories of "depressing" or "disastrous". The sampling error of all approval and disapproval rates is between +/-1 and 4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures needs another calculation. The response rate of the survey is 69%.

Points to note:
* The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
* The sample size of this survey is 1,006 successful interviews, not 1,006 x 68.8% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
* The maximum sampling error of all approval and disapproval rates is between +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures needs another calculation. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-1.3 and sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level".
* When quoting percentages of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used, in order to match the precision level of the figures.
* The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

POP today releases on schedule via the POP Site the latest figures of CE Donald Tsang, Secretaries of Departments and Directors of Bureaux under the accountability system. As a general practice, all figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2008 year-end. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:

As different questions involve different sub-samples, the sample errors will vary accordingly. The table below briefly shows the relationship between sample size and maximum sampling errors for the readers to capture the corresponding changes:

"Maximum sampling errors" occur when survey figures are close to 50%. If the figures are close to 0% or 100%, the sampling error will diminish accordingly. The sampling errors of ratings, however, will depend on the distribution of the raw figures. Since January 2007, POP lists out the sampling errors of all survey figures in detail and explain them in due course. Recent popularity figures of Donald Tsang are summarized as follows:

Figures on the latest popularity ratings of the three Secretaries of Departments under the accountability system are summarized below:

Figures on the latest popularity ratings of Directors of Bureaux under the accountability system are summarized below:

The latest survey showed that, CE Donald Tsang scored 53.8 marks, and 40% supported him as the Chief Executive. Meanwhile, the corresponding ratings of CS Henry Tang Ying-yen, FS John Tsang Chun-wah and SJ Wong Yan-lung were 56.0, 53.5 and 60.8 marks, and 46%, 44% and 63% would vote for their reappointment correspondingly. As for the Directors of Bureaux, results revealed that the top approval rate fell to Secretary for Security Ambrose Lee Siu-kwong, attaining 68%. Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung Kin-chung ranked 2nd with an approval rate of 52%. Secretary for Food and Health York Chow Yat-ngok came 3rd at 51% while the 4th place fell to Secretary for Development Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor with approval rate of 50%. The 5th and 6th ranks fell to Secretary for Environment Edward Yau Tang-wah and Secretary for Transport and Housing Eva Cheng Yu-wa with respective support rates of 37% and 35%. Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan Ka-keung and Secretary for Education Michael Suen Ming-yeung shared the 7th place as they both gained 31% vote of confidence from the public. Secretary for the Civil Service Denise Yue Chung-yee and Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Stephen Lam Sui-lung shared the 9th place as they both gained 30% vote of confidence from the public. The 11th and 12th rank went to Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing and Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Rita Lau Ng Wai-lan, achieving 28% and 26% of public support respectively. In other words, only Ambrose Lee Siu-kwong, Matthew Cheung Kin-chung and York Chow Yat-ngok scored approval rates of over 50% among all Directors of Bureaux.

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to "Opinion Daily" as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey of some items was conducted from June 1 to 3, 2009 while this survey was conducted from July 6 to 12, 2009. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

• July 21, 2009 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Ratings of Top 10 Legislative Councillors