HKU POP SITE releases the latest findings of people's appraisal of society's current conditionsBack

Press Release on July 7, 2009

Abstract

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) of the University of Hong Kong interviewed 1,008 Hong Kong people in June 23 to 26, 2009 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. The survey finds that in terms of relative ranking, people are most concerned with economic problems, then social and political problems. But in terms of absolute ratings, because those most concerned with political problems give higher scores to social than economic problems, the ranked order becomes social problems followed by economic then political problems. People's net satisfaction level of current political conditions is negative 16 percentage points, that of economic conditions negative 15 percentage points, while that of social conditions being zero, meaning that satisfaction and dissatisfaction cancel out each other. Looking back, compared to 3 years ago, people's net appraisal regarding economic, social and political development are negative 68, negative 38 and negative 20 percentage points respectively. All figures are poorer than those registered 6 months ago. Looking ahead to 3 years later, people's net estimates regarding economic, social and political development are positive 38, positive 10 and positive 2 percentage points respectively. Two of the three figures are poorer than those registered 6 months ago. In other words, people are generally dissatisfied with Hong Kong's development over the past 3 years, but are generally optimistic about future development. However, compared to 6 months ago, dissatisfaction has risen and optimism has dropped. The sampling error of the survey is between +/-1 to 3 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures needs another calculation. The response rate of the survey is 70%.

Points to note:

* The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
* The sample size of this survey is 1,008 successful interviews, not 1,008 x 70.0% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
* The maximum sampling error of all percentages is between +/-1 and 3 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures needs another calculation. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-0.14 and sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level".
* When quoting percentages of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used, in order to match the precision level of the figures.
* The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

Latest Figures

POP today releases on schedule via the "POP SITE" the latest findings of people's appraisal of society's current conditions. As a general practice, all figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2008 year-end. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:

Date of survey	Overall sample size	Response rate	Sampling error of percentages*
23-26/6/2009	1,008	70.0%	+/-3%

* Calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.

Recent figures of people's appraisal of society's current conditions are summarized as follows:

Date of survey	15-21/6/07	19-24/12/07	24-26/6/08	23-29/12/08	23-26/6/2009*	Latest change
Sample base	1,006	1,019	1,031	1,022	1,008	--
Overall response rate	65.2%	66.2%	72.1%	72.8%	70.0%	--
Most concerned with economic problems	32%	40%	56%	63%#	52%+/-3%	-11%#
Most concerned with social problems	62%	53%	35%	31%#	42%+/-3%	+11%#
Most concerned with political problems	4%	6%	4%	5%	4%+/-1%	-1%
Rating on concern for social problems	7.35	7.34	6.99	7.30#	7.28+/-0.12	-0.02
Rating on concern for economic problems	7.07	7.29	7.21	7.52#	7.24+/-0.13	-0.28#
Rating on concern for political problems	5.87	5.82	5.50	5.73#	5.56+/-0.14	-0.17#
Current economic condition: Satisfaction rate**	57%	55%	31%	22%#	22%+/-3%	--
Current economic condition: Dissatisfaction rate**	17%	20%	34%	47%#	37%+/-3%	-10%#
Current social condition: Satisfaction rate**	54%	53%	40%	35%#	33%+/-3%	-2%
Current social condition: Dissatisfaction rate**	18%	18%	27%	31%#	33%+/-3%	+2%
Current political condition: Satisfaction rate**	39%	37%	30%	29%	22%+/-3%	-7%#
Current political condition: Dissatisfaction rate**	24%	27%	33%	36%	38%+/-3%	+2%
Regarded economic condition has become better in the last 3 years	81%	73%	48%	10%#	7%+/-2%	-3%#
Regarded economic condition has become worse in the last 3 years	7%	11%	35%	75%#	75%+/-3%	--
Regarded social condition has become better in the last 3 years	60%	59%	41%	19%#	18%+/-2%	-1%
Regarded social condition has become worse in the last 3 years	16%	16%	31%	52%#	56%+/-3%	+4%#
Regarded political condition has become better in the last 3 years	50%	49%	39%	25%#	22%+/-3%	-3%
Regarded political condition has become worse in the last 3 years	14%	16%	28%	38%#	42%+/-3%	+4%#
Expected economic condition to become better in 3 years' time	50%	40%	31%	55%#	56%+/-3%	+1%
Expected economic condition to become worse in 3 years' time	12%	19%	36%	18%#	18%+/-2%	--
Expected social condition to become better in 3 years' time	44%	39%	31%	43%#	38%+/-3%	-5%#
Expected social condition to become worse in 3 years' time	15%	18%	31%	22%#	28%+/-3%	+6%#
Expected political condition to become better in 3 years' time	42%	37%	33%	36%	30%+/-3%	-6%#
Expected political condition to become worse in 3 years' time	14%	15%	24%	20%#	28%+/-3%	+8%#

* Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-0.14 and sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
** Collapsed from a 5-point scale.
# Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

The survey conducted in late-June showed that 52% of the respondents were most concerned with economic problems, 42% with social problems, while 4% attached their greatest concern to political problems. Using a scale of 0-10 marks, the ratings of people's concern over social, economic and political problems were 7.28, 7.24 and 5.56 marks correspondingly. Meanwhile, people's satisfaction rates with the current economic, social and political conditions were 22%, 33% and 22% respectively. Regarding people's appraisal of Hong Kong's development, 7%, 18% and 22% respectively considered our economic, social and political conditions have improved in the last 3 years, while 56%, 38% and 30% respectively believed economic, social and political conditions would become better in 3 years' time.

Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to "Opinion Daily" as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from December 23 to 29, 2008 while this survey was conducted from June 23 to 26, 2009. In between these two surveys, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

25/6/09	Police officers cancel their protest march planned for Sunday.
22/6/09	The Taskforce on Economic Challenges proposes measures to boost the development of six predominant industries.
16/6/09	The executive council proposes a pay cut of 5.38% for all civil servants in the upper salary band.
15/6/09	Many newspapers report and discuss the controversial issue of Zheng Sheng College's relocation to Mui Wo.
11/6/09	All primary schools and kindergartens are suspended for 2 weeks to prevent spread of the swine flu.
8/6/09	People are injured by acid attack again in Mong Kok.
4/6/09	An estimated 150,000 people gather in Victoria Park for the 20th anniversary of June 4th Incident.
26/5/09	Many newspapers report that Hong Kong government announces a $16.8 billion economic relief package.
19/5/09	Joseph Yam Chi-kwong will step down as head of the Monetary Authority on October 1.
16/5/09	30 people are injured by acid attack in Mong Kok.
13/5/09	Hong Kong government confirms second imported case of Influenza A.
8/5/09	7-day quarantine ends for Metropark Hotel.
1/5/09	HK confirms first swine influenza (Influenza A H1N1) case.
25/4/09	Flu checks in HK amid fear of flu pandemic.
18/4/09	The central government rolls out a raft of measures to help Hong Kong through the global economic meltdown.
9/4/09	Hong Kong is preparing for the development of RMB business.
27/3/09	Lawmakers urged not to use offensive language.
15/3/09	35 pan-democrats are allowed to enter Macau while another 5 are refused.
9/3/09	HSBC shares slid 24% to close at HK$33.
25/2/09	John Tsang delivers budget speech with short-term strategies of countering financial crisis and preserving job.
17/2/09	HK's unemployment rate soars to 4.6%.
6/2/09	Government weighs six steps to reduce drinking and driving.
30/1/09	Government announces a net surplus of HK$30.9 billion.
23/1/09	Six construction workers are killed by a drunk trucker in a car crash near the Lok Ma Chau border crossing.
15/1/09	Chief Executive Donald Tsang Yam-kuen puts off the public consultation on electoral reforms for 2012 till the 4th quarter this year.
8/1/09	The government plans to relax the limits on teaching in English.
2/1/09	The government announces several modifications on the banning of idling engines.

Commentary

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "According to our latest survey, in terms of relative ranking, people are most concerned with economic problems, then social and political problems. But in terms of absolute ratings, because those most concerned with political problems give higher scores to social than economic problems, the ranked order becomes social problems followed by economic then political problems. People's net satisfaction level (meaning satisfaction rate minus dissatisfaction rate) of current political conditions is negative 16 percentage points, that of economic conditions negative 15 percentage points, while that of social conditions being zero, meaning that satisfaction and dissatisfaction cancel out each other. Looking back, compared to 3 years ago, people's net appraisal regarding economic, social and political development (meaning percentage considering current conditions to be better than 3 years ago, minus percentage considering current conditions to be worse) are negative 68, negative 38 and negative 20 percentage points respectively. All figures are poorer than those registered 6 months ago. Looking ahead to 3 years later, people's net estimates regarding economic, social and political development (meaning percentage expecting conditions to get better in 3 years, minus percentage expecting conditions to get worse) are positive 38, positive 10 and positive 2 percentage points respectively. Two of the three figures are poorer than those registered 6 months ago. In other words, people are generally dissatisfied with Hong Kong's development over the past 3 years, but are generally optimistic about future development. However, compared to 6 months ago, dissatisfaction has risen and optimism has dropped. We leave it for our readers to figure out the reasons for such feelings using detailed records shown in our "Opinion Daily" feature page."

Next Release (Tentative)

July 14, 2009 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Popularity of the CE and principal officials