HKU POP SITE releases figures of people's satisfaction with Legco members in general, the Hong Kong Police Force and the PLA Hong Kong GarrisonBack

Press Release on July 2, 2009

| Abstract | Latest Figures | Opinion Daily | Commentary | Next Release (Tentative) |
| Detailed Findings (People's Satisfaction with the Performance of Members of the Fourth HKSAR Legislative Council) |
| Detailed Findings (People's Satisfaction with the Performance of the People's Liberation Army Hong Kong Garrison) |
| Detailed Findings (People's Satisfaction with the Performance of the Hong Kong Police Force) |

Abstract

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) of the University of Hong Kong interviewed 1,012 Hong Kong people between 16 and 21 June by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. The survey finds that people's dissatisfaction with the performance of Legco members has dropped significantly by 5 percentage points after it surged 11 percentage points three months ago. Legco members' net popularity (meaning satisfaction minus dissatisfaction figures) nevertheless continues to stay negative, now at negative 14 percentage points. (Note: The net popularity of the SAR Government for the same period is positive 5 percentage points, as published last week.) As for the two disciplinary forces, people's satisfaction with the Hong Kong Police Force has increased significantly by 5 percentage points over the past three months, while their satisfaction with the PLA Hong Kong Garrison has slightly decreased by 3 percentage points. The net popularity of the two forces now stands at positive 64 and 56 percentage points respectively, while the dissatisfaction rate of the PLA Hong Kong Garrison continues to remain near zero. Programme Director Robert Chung observes, 「During the fieldwork period, news spread that some police officers would take to the streets regarding grade structure review, but the Force's popularity seems unaffected.」 Chung stresses that people's satisfaction with Legco members in general includes those returned by geographical and functional constituencies, it is not a direct measurement of individual Legco members' performance. The sampling error of the survey is between +/-1 and 3 percentage points at 95% confidence level, response rate being 69%.

Points to note:

* The address of the 「HKU POP SITE」 is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
* The sample size of this survey is 1,012 successful interviews, not 1,012 x 69.0% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
* The maximum sampling error of all percentages is between +/-1 and 3 percentage points at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level".
* When quoting figures of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting the decimal places, because sampling errors do not entail this kind of precision.
* The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses 「computerized random telephone survey」 to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

Latest Figures

POP today releases on schedule via the "POP SITE" the latest figures of people's satisfaction with the performance of Legislative Council members in general, the People's Liberation Army Hong Kong Garrison (PLA) and the Hong Kong Police Force (HKPF). As a general practice, all figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2008 year-end. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:

Date of survey	Overall sample size	Response rate	Sampling error of percentages*
16-21/6/09	1,012	69.0%	+/-3%

* Calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. 「95% confidence level」 means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.

Recent figures are summarized as follows:

Date of survey	18-20/6/08	17-19/9/08	16-18/12/08	9-11/3/2009	16-21/6/09	Latest change
Sample base	1,003	1,003	1,005	1,019	1,012	--
Overall response rate	70.3%	63.6%	71.7%	65.2%	69.0%	--
Finding /Sampling error	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding and Error*	--
Satisfaction rate of overall performance of Legco members**	25%#	26%	26%	21%#	21% +/-3%	--
Dissatisfaction rate of overall performance of Legco members**	23%	29%#	29%	40%#	35% +/-3%	-5%#
Satisfaction rate of HKPF**	70%	70%	62%#	66%#	71% +/-3%	+5%#
Dissatisfaction rate of HKPF**	8%	8%	15%#	12%#	7% +/-2%	-5%#
Satisfaction rate of PLA**	61%#	58%	56%	61%#	58% +/-3%	-3%
Dissatisfaction rate of PLA**	1%	2%	2%	2%	2% +/-1%	--

*Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level. 「95% confidence level」 means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
** Collapsed from a 5-point scale.
# Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

Results of survey conducted in the second half of June revealed that 21% of the respondents were satisfied with the overall performance of the Legco members, and 35% were dissatisfied. As for the performance of the HKPF, 71% were satisfied while 7% were dissatisfied. Besides, 58% were satisfied with the performance of the PLA stationed in Hong Kong, whereas only 2% were dissatisfied.

Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to "Opinion Daily" as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from March 9 to 11, 2009 while this survey was conducted from June 16 to 21, 2009. In between these two surveys, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

16/6/09	The executive council proposes a pay cut of 5.38% for all civil servants in the upper salary band.
9/6/09	The police are offering a reward of $900,000 for information leading to the arrest of those involved in the acid attack.
8/6/09	People are injured by acid attack again in Mong Kok.
29/5/09	Government unveils the adjustments to the medium-of-instruction policy.
26/5/09	Many newspapers report that Hong Kong government announces a $16.8 billion economic relief package.
18/5/09	Hong Kong's 160,000 civil servants may face pay cuts or freezes.
16/5/09	30 people are injured by acid attack in Mong Kok.
22/4/09	The Court of Appeal blocks PCCW's privatization.
20/4/09	Court of Appeal judge regards PCCW's buyout as "outrageous".
6/4/09	PCCW privatization on hold after SFC made an appeal to the court.
31/3/09	Tang to head new safety task force after inquest into teen tragedy.
27/3/09	Lawmakers urged not to use offensive language.
17/3/09	A South-Asian homeless man who attacks a police officer dies after the constable shot him.
15/3/09	35 pan-democrats are allowed to enter Macau while another 5 are refused.

Commentary

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, 「Our survey shows that people's dissatisfaction with the performance of Legco members has dropped significantly by 5 percentage points after it surged 11 percentage points three months ago. Legco members' net popularity (meaning satisfaction minus dissatisfaction figures) nevertheless continues to stay negative, now at negative 14 percentage points. (Note: The net popularity of the SAR Government for the same period is positive 5 percentage points, as published last week.) As for the two disciplinary forces, people's satisfaction with the Hong Kong Police Force has increased significantly by 5 percentage points over the past three months, while their satisfaction with the PLA Hong Kong Garrison has slightly decreased by 3 percentage points. The net popularity of the two forces now stands at positive 64 and 56 percentage points respectively, while the dissatisfaction rate of the PLA Hong Kong Garrison continues to remain near zero. During the fieldwork period, news spread that some police officers would take to the streets regarding grade structure review, but the Force's popularity seems unaffected. As for the reasons affecting the ups and downs of various figures, we leave it to our readers to form their own judgment using detailed records displayed in our "Opinion Daily". It should be noted, however, that people's satisfaction with Legco members in general includes those returned by geographical as well as functional constituencies. It is not a direct measurement of individual Legco members' performance.」

Next Release (Tentative)

July 7, 2009 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Appraisal of current conditions