HKU POP SITE releases the latest popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang and the HKSAR GovernmentBack

Press Release on June 23, 2009

Abstract

The Public Opinion Programme at the University of Hong Kong interviewed 1,012 Hong Kong people between 16 and 21 June by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. The survey finds that the support rating of CE Donald Tsang has increased significantly compared to two weeks ago, back to the level registered before he made his inappropriate remarks on the June Fourth Incident. The latest change in his approval rate, however, is within sampling error. Compared to a month ago, the satisfaction rate of the SAR Government has also changed within sampling error. CE's net popularity now stands at positive 6 percentage-points, while that of SARG stands at positive 5 percentage-points. Both figures are slightly lower than those registered in a similar survey conducted a month ago. As for the five specific policy areas, compared to 3 months ago, people's satisfaction rate over maintaining economic prosperity has surged by 11 percentage points, dissatisfaction rate plummeted by 15 percentage points, making the number of items with negative satisfaction drop from 3 to 2. The net satisfaction rates of the five indicators are, relationship with the Central Government at positive 41 percentage-points, protection of human rights at positive 12 percentage-points, maintaining economic prosperity at positive 8 percentage-points, improving people's livelihood at negative 5 percentage-points and then developing democracy at negative 10 percentage-points. The sampling error of all percentages is between +/-2 to 3 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figure is +/-1.3 marks. The response rate of the survey is 69%.

Points to note:
* The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
* The sample size of this survey is 1,012 successful interviews, not 1,012 x 69.0% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
* The maximum sampling error of all percentages is between +/-2 to 3 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figure is below +/-1.3 marks. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error below +/-3% at 95% confidence level for percentage figures, and +/-1.3 for rating figure".
* When quoting percentages of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used, in order to match the precision level of the figures.
* The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

Latest Figures

POP today releases on schedule via the "POP SITE" the latest popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang and the HKSAR Government. As a general practice, all figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2008 year-end. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:

Date of survey	Sample base	Overall response rate	Sampling error of percentages*
16-21/6/2009	1,012	69.0%	+/-3%

* Calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Sampling errors of ratings are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.

Recent popularity figures of Donald Tsang and people's satisfaction of the overall performance of the HKSAR Government are summarized as follows:

Date of survey	21-23/4/09	5-7/5/09	19-22/5/09	1-3/6/2009	16-21/6/2009		Latest Change
Sample base	1,014	1,006	1,011	1,008	1,012		--
Overall response rate	68.9%	66.5%	68.3%	65.0%	69.0%		--
Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding & error*		--
Rating of CE Donald Tsang	53.2	57.0 #	54.4#	53.4	55.4	+/-1.3	+2.0#
Vote of confidence in CE Donald Tsang	44%	50%#	47%	43%#	45%	+/-3%	+2%
Vote of no confidence in CE Donald Tsang	40%	37%	36%	40%#	39%	+/-3%	-1%
Satisfaction rate of SARG performance**	25%	--	34%#	--	31%	+/-3%	-3%
Dissatisfaction rate of SARG performance**	34%	--	25%#	--	26%	+/-3%	+1%

* Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.3, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
** Collapsed from a 5-point scale.
# Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

The latest survey conducted in second half of June showed that, CE Donald Tsang scored 55.4 marks, and 45% supported him as the Chief Executive while another 39% opposed. Regarding people's appraisal of the overall performance of the HKSAR Government, the latest figures revealed that 31% were satisfied, whereas 26% were dissatisfied. Recent figures on people's appraisal of the five specific policy areas of the HKSAR Government are tabulated as follows:

Date of survey	18-20/6/08	17-19/9/08	16-18/12/08	9-11/3/09	16-21/6/09	Latest Change
Sample base	1,003	1,003	1,005	1,019	1,012	--
Overall response rate	70.3%	63.6%	71.7%	65.2%	69.0%	--
Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding & error*	--
Relation with the Central Government: Satisfaction rate**	65%	55%#	58%	58%	56% +/-3%	-2%
Relation with the Central Government: Dissatisfaction rate**	10%	14%#	12%	13%	15% +/-2%	+2%
Protecting human rights and freedom: Satisfaction rate**	43%#	45%	46%	45%	40% +/-3%	-5%#
Protecting human rights and freedom: Dissatisfaction rate**	23%#	22%	21%	23%	28% +/-3%	+5%#
Maintaining economic prosperity: Satisfaction rate**	42%#	32%#	25%#	24%	35% +/-3%	+11%#
Maintaining economic prosperity: Dissatisfaction rate**	22%#	32%#	37%#	42%#	27% +/-3%	-15%#
Improving people's livelihood: Satisfaction rate**	28%#	24%#	25%	23%	30% +/-3%	+7%#
Improving people's livelihood: Dissatisfaction rate**	36%#	41%#	43%	45%	35% +/-3%	-10%#
Pace of democratic development: Satisfaction rate**	32%#	30%	31%	32%	28% +/-3%	-4%#
Pace of democratic development: Dissatisfaction rate**	33%#	35%	32%	36%#	38% +/-3%	+2%

* Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
** Collapsed from a 5-point scale.
# Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

Of the 5 specific policy areas, people were most satisfied with the government's handling of its relation with the Central Government, with a satisfaction percentage of 56%. The government's performance in protecting human rights followed, attaining a satisfaction percentage of 40%. Finally, a respective of 35%, 30% and 28% of the respondents were satisfied with the government's performance in maintaining economic prosperity, improving people's livelihood, as well as developing democracy.

Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to "Opinion Daily" as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey of some items was conducted from March 9 to 11, 2009 while this survey was conducted from June 16 to 21, 2009. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

18/6/09	Five more schools are ordered to close after new swine flu cases are confirmed.
16/6/09	The executive council proposes a pay cut of 5.38% for all civil servants in the upper salary band.
15/6/09	Many newspapers report and discuss the controversial issue of Zheng Sheng College's relocation to Mui Wo.
13/6/09	Many newspapers report and discuss a minibus driver is arrested on the suspicion of dangerous driving.
11/6/09	All primary schools and kindergartens are suspended for 2 weeks to prevent spread of the swine flu.
10/6/09	A 16-year-old girl becomes the city's first non-imported case of human swine flu.
8/6/09	People are injured by acid attack again in Mong Kok.
6/6/09	Many newspapers report on increasing drug abuse among youngsters.
4/6/09	An estimated 150,000 people gather in Victoria Park for the 20th anniversary of June 4th Incident.
29/5/09	Government unveils the adjustments to the medium-of-instruction policy.
28/5/09	A Kwun Tong secondary school is ordered to close for two weeks after a new swine flu cases is confirmed.
26/5/09	Many newspapers report that Hong Kong government announces a $16.8 billion economic relief package.
23/5/09	Hong Kong government confirms the fifth and the sixth case of Influenza A.
22/5/09	Hong Kong government confirms the fourth case of Influenza A.
18/5/09	Hong Kong's 160,000 civil servants may face pay cuts or freezes.
17/5/09	Hong Kong government confirms the third case of Influenza A.
16/5/09	30 people are injured by acid attack in Mong Kok.
15/5/09	Hong Kong's first-quarter GDP shrinks 7.8 per cent.
13/5/09	Hong Kong government confirms second imported case of Influenza A.
9/5/09	The CEPA supplement is signed to boost HK financial sector.
8/5/09	7-day quarantine ends for Metropark Hotel.
7/5/09	Many nerwspapers follow and discuss the Influenza A H1N1 epidemic and the quarantine measures.
1/5/09	HK confirms first swine influenza (Influenza A H1N1) case.
18/4/09	The central government rolls out a raft of measures to help Hong Kong through the global economic meltdown.
16/4/09	China's economy expands 6.1% year on year in the first quarter.
*11/4/09	Premier Wen Jiabao reminds HK people to strive to stabilize its status of financial centre.
9/4/09	Hong Kong is preparing for the development of RMB business.
31/3/09	Tang to head new safety task force after inquest into teen tragedy.
15/3/09	35 pan-democrats are allowed to enter Macau while another 5 are refused.
13/3/09	Premier Wen Jiabao pledges that China is capable of launching a new stimulus package at any time.

Commentary

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "Our latest survey shows that the support rating of CE Donald Tsang has increased significantly compared to two weeks ago, back to the level registered before he made his inappropriate remarks on the June Fourth Incident. The latest change in his approval rate, however, is within sampling error. Compared to a month ago, the satisfaction rate of the SAR Government has also changed within sampling error. CE's net popularity now stands at positive 6 percentage-points, while that of SARG stands at positive 5 percentage-points. Both figures are slightly lower than those registered in a similar survey conducted a month ago. As for the five specific policy areas, compared to 3 months ago, people's satisfaction rate over maintaining economic prosperity has surged by 11 percentage points, dissatisfaction rate plummeted by 15 percentage points, making the number of items with negative satisfaction drop from 3 to 2. The net satisfaction rates of the five indicators are, relationship with the Central Government at positive 41 percentage-points, protection of human rights at positive 12 percentage-points, maintaining economic prosperity at positive 8 percentage-points, improving people's livelihood at negative 5 percentage-points and then developing democracy at negative 10 percentage-points. As for the reasons affecting the ups and downs of these figures, we leave it to our readers to form their own judgment using detailed records displayed in our 'Opinion Daily'."

Next Release (Tentative)

June 25, 2009 (Thursday) 1pm to 2pm: Six Indicators of Trust and Confidence
June 30, 2009 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: HKSAR Anniversary

*Erratum: The date in the original release is "10/4/09".