HKU POP SITE releases the latest findings of people's ethnic identityBack

 
Press Release on June 18, 2009

| Abstract | Latest Figures | Opinion Daily | Commentary | Next Release (Tentative) |
| Detailed Findings (Opinion on Independence of Taiwan / Confidence in Cross-strait Reunification) |
| Detailed Findings (Opinion on Applicability of "One Country, Two Systems" to Taiwan) |
| Detailed Findings (Opinion on Taiwan's Rejoining the United Nations / Tibet Issues) |


Abstract

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong interviewed 1,002 Hong Kong people between June 8 and 13 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. The survey finds that compared to three months ago, Hong Kong people's opinion towards the independence of Tibet, reunification across the strait and applicability of 'one country, two systems' to Taiwan has not changed much. However, their support to Taiwan rejoining the United Nations has jumped 14 percentage-points, reaching a record high since August 1994. The net support rate now stands at positive 19 percentage-points, probably because Taiwan was recently invited to join the World Health Assembly as an observer. However, despite the significant 4 percentage-point drop in people's opposition to the independence of Taiwan, it remains high at 75%. Combining these two sets of figures, it can be seen that although people in Hong Kong oppose the independence of Taiwan, they are quite sympathetic to Taiwan's quest for more international space. The sampling error of all percentages released today is between +/-2 and 3 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the response rate of the survey is 68%.

Points to note:
* The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
* The sample size of this survey is 1,002 successful interviews, not 1,002 x 67.7% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
* The maximum sampling error of all percentages is between +/-2 and 3 percentage points at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level".
* When quoting percentages of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places in order to match the precision level of the figures.
* The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

Latest Figures

POP today releases via the POP Site the latest figures of Hong Kong people's opinion towards Taiwan and Tibet issues. All the figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2008 year-end. Herewith the contact information for the survey:

Date of survey

Sample base

Overall response rate

Sampling error of percentages*

8-13/6/09

1,002

67.7%

+/-3%

* Calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.

Recent figures of people's opinions towards Taiwan and Tibet issues are summarized as follows:

Date of survey

11-13/6/08

10-12/9/08

9-12/12/08

9-11/3/09

8-13/6/09

Latest change

Sample base

1,012

1,006

1,016

1,019

1,002

--

Overall response rate

67.4%

62.2%

69.3%

65.2%

67.7%

--

Latest finding

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding and error*

--

Taiwan independence: Opposition rate

81%

79%

79%

79%

75% +/- 3%

-4%#

Taiwan independence: Support rate

11%

11%

12%

13%

16% +/- 2%

+3%#

Tibet independence: Opposition rate

82%#

80%

78%

77%

75% +/-3%

-2%

Tibet independence: Support rate

7%#

7%

9%

10%

12% +/-2%

+2%

Confidence in cross-strait reunification

59%

59%

53%#

60%#

57% +/-3%

-3%

No confidence in cross-strait reunification

31%

29%

35%#

31%#

34% +/-3%

+3%

Taiwan rejoining the United Nations: Support rate

37%#

33%#

35%

37%

51% +/-3%

+14%#

Taiwan rejoining the United Nations: Opposition rate

46%#

49%

47%

48%

32% +/-3%

-16%#

Believed "one country, two systems" was applicable to Taiwan

60%

59%

58%

61%

59% +/-3%

-2%

Believed "one country, two systems" was not applicable to Taiwan

29%

29%

29%

30%

31% +/-3%

+1%

* Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
# Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

Results obtained in the first half of June revealed that 75% of Hong Kong people interviewed opposed the independence of Taiwan whereas only 16% showed support. Meanwhile, 75% objected Tibet becoming independent whilst only 12% held a positive view. Besides, 57% were confident in the ultimate reunification across the strait whilst 34% expressed no confidence. Moreover, 51% supported Taiwan rejoining the United Nations, 32% opposed it. As for the applicability of 'one country, two systems' to Taiwan, 59% gave a positive view while 31% gave a negative answer.

Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to "Opinion Daily" as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from March 9 to 11, 2009 while this survey was conducted from June 8 to 13, 2009. In between these two surveys, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

12/5/09

Sichuan earthquake marks its first anniversary.

11/5/09

Many newspapers report the upcoming first anniversary of the Sichuan earthquake.

30/4/09

The swine influenza (Influenza A H1N1) outbreak spreads fast across the world as global epidemic.

28/4/09

Many newspapers report and discuss the suspect cases of swine flu in Asia and the precautionary measures in Hong Kong.

27/4/09

The swine flu outbreak spreads fast across the world as global epidemic.

16/4/09

China's economy expands 6.1% year on year in the first quarter.

13/3/09

Premier Wen Jiabao pledges that China is capable of launching a new stimulus package at any time.

 

Commentary

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "Compared to three months ago, Hong Kong people's opinion towards the independence of Tibet, reunification across the strait and applicability of 'one country, two systems' to Taiwan has not changed much. However, their support to Taiwan rejoining the United Nations has jumped 14 percentage-points, reaching a record high since August 1994. The net support rate now stands at positive 19 percentage-points, probably because Taiwan was recently invited to join the World Health Assembly as an observer. However, despite the significant 4 percentage-point drop in people's opposition to the independence of Taiwan, it remains high at 75%. Combining these two sets of figures, it can be seen that although people in Hong Kong oppose the independence of Taiwan, they are quite sympathetic to Taiwan's quest for more international space. As for the reasons affecting the ups and downs of different figures, readers are free to form their own judgment using the detailed records displayed in our 'Opinion Daily'."

Next Release (Tentative)
  • June 23, 2009 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Popularity of CE and HKSARG
  • June 25, 2009 (Thursday) 1pm to 2pm: 6 latest trust and confidence indicators


| Abstract | Latest Figures | Opinion Daily | Commentary | Next Release (Tentative) |
| Detailed Findings (Opinion on Independence of Taiwan / Confidence in Cross-strait Reunification) |
| Detailed Findings (Opinion on Applicability of "One Country, Two Systems" to Taiwan) |
| Detailed Findings (Opinion on Taiwan's Rejoining the United Nations / Tibet Issues) |