HKU POP SITE releases the latest findings of people's ethnic identityBack

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong interviewed 1,002 Hong Kong people between June 8 and 13 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. The survey finds that compared to three months ago, Hong Kong people's opinion towards the independence of Tibet, reunification across the strait and applicability of 'one country, two systems' to Taiwan has not changed much. However, their support to Taiwan rejoining the United Nations has jumped 14 percentage-points, reaching a record high since August 1994. The net support rate now stands at positive 19 percentage-points, probably because Taiwan was recently invited to join the World Health Assembly as an observer. However, despite the significant 4 percentage-point drop in people's opposition to the independence of Taiwan, it remains high at 75%. Combining these two sets of figures, it can be seen that although people in Hong Kong oppose the independence of Taiwan, they are quite sympathetic to Taiwan's quest for more international space. The sampling error of all percentages released today is between +/-2 and 3 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the response rate of the survey is 68%.

Points to note:
* The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
* The sample size of this survey is 1,002 successful interviews, not 1,002 x 67.7% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
* The maximum sampling error of all percentages is between +/-2 and 3 percentage points at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level".
* When quoting percentages of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places in order to match the precision level of the figures.
* The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

POP today releases via the POP Site the latest figures of Hong Kong people's opinion towards Taiwan and Tibet issues. All the figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2008 year-end. Herewith the contact information for the survey:

Recent figures of people's opinions towards Taiwan and Tibet issues are summarized as follows:

Results obtained in the first half of June revealed that 75% of Hong Kong people interviewed opposed the independence of Taiwan whereas only 16% showed support. Meanwhile, 75% objected Tibet becoming independent whilst only 12% held a positive view. Besides, 57% were confident in the ultimate reunification across the strait whilst 34% expressed no confidence. Moreover, 51% supported Taiwan rejoining the United Nations, 32% opposed it. As for the applicability of 'one country, two systems' to Taiwan, 59% gave a positive view while 31% gave a negative answer.

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to "Opinion Daily" as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from March 9 to 11, 2009 while this survey was conducted from June 8 to 13, 2009. In between these two surveys, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "Compared to three months ago, Hong Kong people's opinion towards the independence of Tibet, reunification across the strait and applicability of 'one country, two systems' to Taiwan has not changed much. However, their support to Taiwan rejoining the United Nations has jumped 14 percentage-points, reaching a record high since August 1994. The net support rate now stands at positive 19 percentage-points, probably because Taiwan was recently invited to join the World Health Assembly as an observer. However, despite the significant 4 percentage-point drop in people's opposition to the independence of Taiwan, it remains high at 75%. Combining these two sets of figures, it can be seen that although people in Hong Kong oppose the independence of Taiwan, they are quite sympathetic to Taiwan's quest for more international space. As for the reasons affecting the ups and downs of different figures, readers are free to form their own judgment using the detailed records displayed in our 'Opinion Daily'."

• June 23, 2009 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Popularity of CE and HKSARG
• June 25, 2009 (Thursday) 1pm to 2pm: 6 latest trust and confidence indicators