HKU POP SITE releases the latest popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang and the HKSAR GovernmentBack

Press Release on May 26, 2009

Abstract

The Public Opinion Programme at the University of Hong Kong interviewed 1,011 Hong Kong people between 19 and 22 May by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. The survey finds that after the across the board rise in popularity of all government officials in early May, the popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang have dropped significantly in the second half of May, probably due to his inappropriate remarks on the June Fourth Incident. Nevertheless, compared to a month ago, CE's support rating and approval rate have still increased. His net popularity (meaning approval rate minus disapproval rate) now stands at positive 11 percentage points. As for people's satisfaction with the SAR Government, compared to a month ago, satisfaction rate has increased 9 percentage points, while its net popularity (meaning satisfaction rate minus dissatisfaction rate) has changed from negative 9 percentage points to positive 9 percentage points. The sampling error of all percentages is below +/-3 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figure is below +/-1.3 marks. The response rate of the survey is 68%.

Points to note:

* The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
* The sample size of this survey is 1,011 successful interviews, not 1,011 x 68.3% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
* The maximum sampling error of all percentages is below +/-3 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figure is below +/-1.3 marks. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error below +/-3% at 95% confidence level for percentage figures, and +/-1.3 for rating figure".
* When quoting percentages of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used, in order to match the precision level of the figures.
* The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

Latest Figures

POP today releases on schedule via the "POP SITE" the latest popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang and the HKSAR Government. As a general practice, all figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2008 year-end. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:

Date of survey	Overall sample size	Response rate	Sampling error of percentages*
19-22/5/2009	1,011	68.3%	+/-3%

* Calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Sampling errors of ratings are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.

Recent popularity figures of Donald Tsang and people's satisfaction of the overall performance of the HKSAR Government are summarized as follows:

Date of survey	9-11/3/09	1-5/4/09	21-23/4/09	5-7/5/09	19-22/5/09	Latest Change
Sample base	1,019	1,001	1,014	1,006	1,011	--
Overall response rate	65.2%	67.5%	68.9%	66.5%	68.3%	--
Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding & error*	--
Rating of CE Donald Tsang	52.4	54.0#	53.2	57.0 #	54.4 +/-1.3	-2.6#
Vote of confidence in CE Donald Tsang	44%	47%	44%	50%#	47% +/-3%	-3%
Vote of no confidence in CE Donald Tsang	41%	39%	40%	37%	36% +/-3%	-1%
Satisfaction rate of SARG performance**	24%	--	25%	--	34% +/-3%	+9%#
Dissatisfaction rate of SARG performance**	36%#	--	34%	--	25% +/-3%	-9%#

* Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.3, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
** Collapsed from a 5-point scale.
# Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

The latest survey conducted in second half of May showed that, CE Donald Tsang scored 54.4 marks, and 47% supported him as the Chief Executive while another 36% opposed. Regarding people's appraisal of the overall performance of the HKSAR Government, the latest figures revealed that 34% were satisfied, whereas 25% were dissatisfied.

Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to "Opinion Daily" as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey of some items was conducted from April 21 to 23, 2009 while this survey was conducted from May 19 to 22, 2009. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

22/5/09	Hong Kong government confirms the fourth case of Influenza A.
19/5/09	Joseph Yam Chi-kwong will step down as head of the Monetary Authority on October 1.
18/5/09	Hong Kong's 160,000 civil servants may face pay cuts or freezes.
17/5/09	Hong Kong government confirms the third case of Influenza A.
16/5/09	30 people are injured by acid attack in Mong Kok.
13/5/09	Hong Kong government confirms second imported case of Influenza A.
9/5/09	The CEPA supplement is signed to boost HK financial sector.
8/5/09	7-day quarantine ends for Metropark Hotel.
7/5/09	Many newspapers follow and discuss the Influenza A H1N1 epidemic and the quarantine measures.
4/5/09	Many newspapers follow and discuss the Influenza A H1N1 epidemic.
3/5/09	The where-about of the taxi driver taking the Mexican patient to hospital is unknown.
2/5/09	Government hunts for people with contacts with Mexican patient.
1/5/09	HK confirms first swine influenza (Influenza A H1N1) case.
30/4/09	The swine influenza (Influenza A H1N1) outbreak spreads fast across the world as global epidemic.
29/4/09	The first death case of the swine flu in the US is confirmed.
28/4/09	Many newspapers report and discuss the suspect cases of swine flu in Asia and the precautionary measures in Hong Kong.
27/4/09	The swine flu outbreak spreads fast across the world as global epidemic.
26/4/09	Local government issues a string of precautionary measures.
25/4/09	Flu checks in HK amid fear of flu pandemic.

Commentary

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "Our latest survey shows that, after the across the board rise in popularity of all government officials in early May, the popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang have dropped significantly in the second half of May, probably due to his inappropriate remarks on the June Fourth Incident. Nevertheless, compared to a month ago, CE's support rating and approval rate have still increased. His net popularity (meaning approval rate minus disapproval rate) now stands at positive 11 percentage points. As for people's satisfaction with the SAR Government, compared to a month ago, satisfaction rate has increased 9 percentage points, while its net popularity (meaning satisfaction rate minus dissatisfaction rate) has changed from negative 9 percentage points to positive 9 percentage points. Other than CE's remarks on the June Fourth Incident and the performance of the government in fighting against swine flu, readers can make their own judgment on other reasons which have affected the popularity of the CE and the government, using detailed records shown in our 'Opinion Daily' feature page."

Next Releases (Tentative)

May 27, 2009 (Wednesday) 1pm to 2pm: June Fourth anniversary survey

June 2, 2009 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Top 10 political groups