HKU POP SITE releases the survey on people's feeling towards different governments and peoplesBack

Press Release on May 19, 2009

Abstract

The Public Opinion Programme at the University of Hong Kong conducted a double stage survey on Hong Kong citizens' feeling towards different governments and peoples this month, by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers. The survey finds that Hong Kong people feel much more positively about other peoples than their governments, with the exception of Mainland China. Regarding the four cross-strait societies, Hong Kong people's positive feeling towards fellow Hong Kong people is 18 percentage points higher than that towards the Hong Kong SAR Government, that towards the Taiwan people is 14 percentage points higher than that of the Taiwan government, and that towards the Macau people is 2 percentage points higher than that of the Macau SAR government. However, their positive feeling towards Mainland Chinese people is 4 percentage points lower than that of the Mainland Chinese government. As for countries outside the cross-strait region, Hong Kong people's positive feelings towards the people of Japan is 31 percentage points higher than that of the Japanese government, that towards the people of Thailand is 25 percentage points higher than that of the Thai government, that towards the people of France is 15 percentage points higher than that of the French government, and that towards the people of South Korea is 13 percentage points higher than that of the South Korean government. In terms of absolute percentages, Hong Kong people seem to dislike the governments of Thailand, Japan, France, the United States and Taiwan, whereas they seem to like all peoples rather than dislike them. This finding is worth studying by various governments. Moreover, also worth noting is that compared to half a year ago, Hong Kong people's negative feeling towards the United States government has dropped 16 percentage points, that towards the Taiwan people has dropped 12 percentage points, that towards the Taiwan government has dropped 9 percentage points, but their negative feeling towards the Thai and French governments have both risen by 9 percentage points. Barack Obama's becoming the President of the United States, thawing of cross-strait relationship, and demonstrations in Thailand may all have affected such figures. The sampling error of all percentages is between +/-1 to 4 percentage points at 95% confidence level while the response rate of the second stage opinion survey is 65%.

Points to note:

* The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
* The sample size of the first stage naming survey is 1,006 successful interviews, not 1,006 x 66.5% response rate, while the sample size of the second stage rating survey is 1,011 successful interviews, not 1,011 x 65.4% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error of various percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level".
* When quoting percentages of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places in order to match the precision level of the figures.
* The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

Latest Figures

POP today releases on schedule via the "POP SITE" the survey findings on Hong Kong people's feeling towards different governments and peoples. These surveys on governments are conducted at least once a year since 1997, while the surveys on peoples only began in 2007, this being the fourth time. As a general practice, all figures released today have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2008 year-end. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:

Date of survey	Overall sample size	Response rate	Sampling error of percentages*
5-7/5/09 (First stage naming survey)	1,006	66.5%	+/-3%
11-16/5/09 (Second stage opinion survey)	1,011	65.4%	+/-3%

* Calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Questions using only sub-samples would have bigger sample error.

The research design of our survey on "people's feeling towards different governments and peoples" has been explained in detail under "Survey Method" in our corresponding web page. For many years, POP have selected 15 regions and countries that are best known to Hong Kong people, and conducted surveys to measure people's feeling towards the governments of these places. Our primary objective was to map Hong Kong people's cosmopolitan view over time. In 2007, we improved our research design. Our mid-2007 survey was divided into two stages, namely, a naming survey and an opinion survey. In the 2007 year-end survey, we further added the people module to the survey. In specific terms, in our naming survey, other than Hong Kong, Mainland China, Taiwan and Macau, respondents can name, unaided, up to ten regions or countries which they know best. The four cross-strait regions together with 12 other regions and countries most frequently mentioned in the naming stage were then shortlisted into the second stage, with their governments and peoples rated by respondents as "very positive", "quite positive", "half-half", "quite negative" or "very negative". In our first stage survey conducted on May 5-7, the United States, the United Kingdom, Japan, France and Australia were mentioned most frequently. Please refer to the relevant table in our website for the rest of the list. Our second stage survey was conducted on May 11-16. The following table summarizes the findings of Hong Kong people's feeling towards the governments and peoples of the four cross-strait regions.

Date of survey		3-7/12/07	14-16/5/08	11-14/11/08	11-16/5/09
Sample base		1,012	1,005	1,012	1,011
Overall response rate		68.3%	65.5%	69.1%	65.4%
Feeling towards different governments / peoples **		Finding	Finding	Finding	Base^	Finding and error*	Latest change^^	Difference with gov'ts / peoples
Hong Kong	Government Positive	47%	42%	24%#	527	29% +/-4%	+5%#	-18%
	Government Negative	9%	8%	23%#	527	16% +/-3%	-7%#	+11%
	People Positive	58%	57%	43%#	527	47% +/-4%	+4%	+18%
	People Negative	5%	3%	7%#	527	5% +/-2%	-2%	-11%
Mainland	Government Positive	49%	48%	45%	573	41% +/-4%	-4%	+4%
	Government Negative	12%	8%	13%#	573	11% +/-3%	-2%	-1%
	People Positive	39%	42%	37%#	573	37% +/-4%	--	-4%
	People Negative	16%	13%	20%#	573	12% +/-3%	-8%#	+1%
Taiwan	Government Positive	10%	22%	23%	566	25% +/-4%	+2%	-14%
	Government Negative	56%	30%	35%#	566	26% +/-4%	-9%#	+18%
	People Positive	40%	48%	31%#	566	39% +/-4%	+8%#	+14%
	People Negative	10%	5%	20%#	566	8% +/-2%	-12%#	-18%
Macau	Government Positive	44%	41%	50%#	521	44% +/-4%	-6%#	-2%
	Government Negative	14%	6%	7%	521	9% +/-3%	+2%	+6%
	People Positive	51%	46%	45%	521	46% +/-4%	+1%	+2%
	People Negative	3%	2%	2%	521	3% +/-1%	+1%	-6%

Date of survey

3-7/12/07

14-16/5/08

11-14/11/08

11-16/5/09

Sample base

1,012

1,005

1,012

1,011

Overall response rate

68.3%

65.5%

69.1%

65.4%

Feeling towards different governments / peoples **

Finding

Base^

Finding and
error*

Latest
change^^

Difference with gov'ts / peoples

Singapore

Government Positive

59%

54%

51%

591

50% +/-4%

-1%

-4%

Government Negative

10%

591

10% +/-2%

+7%

People Positive

63%

57%

52%#

591

54% +/-4%

+2%

+4%

People Negative

591

3% +/-1%

-1%

-7%

Canada

Government Positive

45%

46%

41%#

525

47% +/-4%

+6%#

-4%

Government Negative

525

2% +/-1%

-1%

+1%

People Positive

52%

53%

47%#

525

51% +/-4%

+4%

People Negative

525

1% +/-1%

-1%

Australia

Government Positive

46%

39%

42%

520

45% +/-4%

+3%

-4%

Government Negative

520

2% +/-1%

-1%

People Positive

47%

46%

44%

520

49% +/-4%

+5%#

+4%

People Negative

520

2% +/-1%

-1%

Japan

Government Positive

17%

19%

21%

568

17% +/-3%

-4%#

-31%

Government Negative

43%

27%

26%

568

33% +/-4%

+7%#

+25%

People Positive

46%

47%

568

48% +/-4%

+1%

+31%

People Negative

12%

568

8% +/-2%

-1%

-25%

United Kingdom

Government Positive

38%

34%

39%#

567

36% +/-4%

-3%

-4%

Government Negative

12%

8%#

567

10% +/-3%

+2%

+6%

People Positive

45%

36%

41%#

567

40% +/-4%

-1%

+4%

People Negative

567

4% +/-2%

-6%

South Korea

Government Positive

39%

32%

25%#

559

24% +/-4%

-1%

-13%

Government Negative

11%

559

12% +/-3%

+1%

+4%

People Positive

45%

40%

38%

559

37% +/-4%

-1%

+13%

People Negative

10%#

559

8% +/-2%

-2%

-4%

Thailand

Government Positive

20%

23%

13%#

538

9% +/-2%

-4%#

-25%

Government Negative

29%

19%

37%#

538

46% +/-4%

+9%#

+29%

People Positive

40%

39%

36%

538

34% +/-4%

-2%

+25%

People Negative

11%#

538

17% +/-3%

+6%#

-29%

Malaysia

Government Positive

580

22% +/-3%

-11%

Government Negative

580

14% +/-3%

+8%

People Positive

580

33% +/-4%

+11%

People Negative

580

6% +/-2%

-8%

USA

Government Positive

16%

15%

545

23% +/-4%

+8%#

-9%

Government Negative

45%

41%

42%

545

26% +/-4%

-16%#

+16%

People Positive

41%

33%

36%

545

32% +/-4%

-4%

+9%

People Negative

10%

545

10% +/-3%

-16%

Germany

Government Positive

26%

27%

25%

540

28% +/-4%

+3%

-4%

Government Negative

540

5% +/-2%

-1%

+2%

People Positive

31%

32%

31%

540

32% +/-4%

+1%

+4%

People Negative

540

3% +/-1%

-2%

France

Government Positive

24%

16%

20%#

526

16% +/-3%

-4%#

-15%

Government Negative

23%

11%#

526

20% +/-3%

+9%#

+12%

People Positive

32%

27%

29%

526

31% +/-4%

+2%

+15%

People Negative

11%

5%#

526

8% +/-2%

+3%#

-12%

Italy

Government Positive

18%

19%

562

17% +/-3%

-2%

-11%

Government Negative

562

6% +/-2%

+1%

+3%

People Positive

28%

24%

562

28% +/-4%

+4%

+11%

People Negative

562

3% +/-1%

-3%#

-3%

Russia

Government Positive

17%

16%

17%

Government Negative

24%

21%

23%

People Positive

26%

19%

25%#

People Negative

* Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
** Collapsed from a 5-point scale.
^ These questions only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned, the sample size for each question also varies.
^^ Comparison made with survey findings of 11-14/11/08.
# Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

Findings obtained in mid-May showed that, regarding the results of people's feeling towards different governments, 29% felt positive towards the HKSAR government while 16% felt negative. For the other cross-strait governments, the corresponding positive figures for the Mainland, Taiwan and Macau SAR governments were 41%, 25% and 44%, while the corresponding negative figures were 11%, 26% and 9%. As for other governments, the positive figures for Singapore, Canada and Australia were 50%, 47% and 45% respectively, while those for the United Kingdom, Germany, South Korea, the United States, Malaysia, Italy, Japan and France were 36%, 28%, 24%, 23%, 22%, 17%, 17% and 16% correspondingly. Lastly, only 9% expressed positive feelings towards the government of Thailand.

As regards the results of people's feeling towards different peoples, latest survey showed that 47% felt positive towards the HKSAR people while 5% felt negative. For the other cross-strait regions, the corresponding positive figures for the Mainland, Taiwan and Macau SAR peoples were 37%, 39% and 46%, while the corresponding negative figures were 12%, 8% and 3%. As for the peoples of other regions and countries, the positive figures for Singapore, Canada, Australia and Japan were highest, with 54%, 51%, 49% and 48% respectively, while those for the United Kingdom, South Korea, Thailand, Malaysia, the United States, Germany and France were 40%, 37%, 34%, 33%, 32%, 32% and 31% correspondingly. Lastly, only 28% expressed positive feelings towards the people of Italy.

Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to "Opinion Daily" as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, because the previous survey of some items was conducted from November 11 to 14, 2008 while this survey was conducted from May 11 to 16, 2009. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

17/5/09	Hong Kong government confirms the third case of Influenza A.
16/5/09	30 people are injured by acid attack in Mong Kok.
15/5/09	Hong Kong's first-quarter GDP shrinks 7.8 per cent.
13/5/09	Hong Kong government confirms second imported case of Influenza A.
12/5/09	Sichuan earthquake marks its first anniversary.
9/5/09	The CEPA supplement is signed to boost HK financial sector.
8/5/09	7-day quarantine ends for Metropark Hotel.
7/5/09	Many nerwspapers follow and discuss the Influenza A H1N1 epidemic and the quarantine measures.
4/5/09	The swine influenza (Influenza A H1N1) outbreak spreads fast across the world as global epidemic.
1/5/09	HK confirms first swine influenza (Influenza A H1N1) case.
27/4/09	The swine flu outbreak spreads fast across the world as global epidemic.
18/4/09	The central government rolls out a raft of measures to help Hong Kong through the global economic meltdown.
13/4/09	Nearly 100 hurt and 2 killed as soldiers battled bands of Bangkok protesters.
*11/4/09	1) Anti-government protesters storm meeting venue of Asean summit. 2) Premier Wen Jiabao reminds HK people to strive to stabilize its status of financial centre.
9/4/09	Hong Kong is preparing for the development of RMB business.
5/4/09	North Korea shock the world by launching a satellite.
2/4/09	G20 leaders agree to plegde an adidtional $1.1 trillion for economic recovery.
19/3/09	US Fed starts printing cash to revive the US economy.
15/3/09	35 pan-democrats are allowed to enter Macau while another 5 are refused.
13/3/09	Premier Wen Jiabao pledges that China is capable of launching a new stimulus package at any time.
5/3/09	Premier Wen Jiabao presents report on government work.
28/2/09	Wen Jiabao debutes online chat with netizens.
25/2/09	John Tsang delivers budget speech with short-term strategies of countering financial crisis and preserving job.
21/2/09	China and the US agree on new era of ties.
10/2/09	Chen's wife admits forgery, laundering.
6/2/09	Government weighs six steps to reduce drinking and driving.
30/1/09	Government announces a net surplus of HK$30.9 billion.
22/1/09	Sanlu Group executives and milk farmers are sentenced to death penalty and life improsonment.
20/1/09	Barack Obama swears in as the US President.
15/1/09	Chief Executive Donald Tsang Yam-kuen puts off the public consultation on electoral reforms for 2012 till the 4th quarter this year.
11/1/09	Vice President Xi Jinping calls on the people of Macau to strengthen their resolve and find solutions to the hardships facing the region.
8/1/09	The government plans to relax the limits on teaching in English.
2/1/09	The government announces several modifications on the banning of idling engines.
31/12/08	1) Many newspapers report and discuss the review and forecast on Hong Kong's development. 2) President Hu Jintao addresses 6 points on political and military co-operation with Taiwan.
26/12/08	Chinese naval fleet sets sail for anti-piracy duty off Somalia.
24/12/08	People enjoy Christmas during tough time.
19/12/08	The Central Government will implement 14 measures to help the city's economy.
12/12/08	Chen Shui-bien charged with corruption facing a maximum sentence of life imprisonment.
10/12/08	The three-day Central Economic Work Conference ends in Beijing.
8/12/08	Hong Kong SAR government announces a massive rescue package.
2/12/08	Newspapers report and discuss the issue of Hong Kong people stranded in Thailand.
1/12/08	The government arranges charter flights to pick up residents in Thailand.
24/11/08	Citigroup receives US$306 billion from US government.
18/11/08	The latest HK unemployment rate rises to 3.5%
16/11/08	G20 summit ends in Washington D.C.
14/11/08	HK economy shrinks for a second quarter as global crisis bites.
12/11/08	The Legislative Council will investigate the Lehman Brothers minibonds affair.
11/11/08	Former Taiwanese president Chen Shui-bian is in custody for money-laundering.

Commentary

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "Our latest survey shows that Hong Kong people feel much more positively about other peoples than their governments, with the exception of Mainland China. Regarding the four cross-strait societies, Hong Kong people's positive feeling towards fellow Hong Kong people is 18 percentage points higher than that towards the Hong Kong SAR Government, that towards the Taiwan people is 14 percentage points higher than that of the Taiwan government, and that towards the Macau people is 2 percentage points higher than that of the Macau SAR government. However, their positive feeling towards Mainland Chinese people is 4 percentage points lower than that of the Mainland Chinese government. As for countries outside the cross-strait region, Hong Kong people's positive feelings towards the people of Japan is 31 percentage points higher than that of the Japanese government, that towards the people of Thailand is 25 percentage points higher than that of the Thai government, that towards the people of France is 15 percentage points higher than that of the French government, and that towards the people of South Korea is 13 percentage points higher than that of the South Korean government. In terms of absolute percentages, Hong Kong people seem to dislike the governments of Thailand, Japan, France, the United States and Taiwan, whereas they seem to like all peoples rather than dislike them. This finding is worth studying by various governments. Moreover, also worth noting is that compared to half a year ago, Hong Kong people's negative feeling towards the United States government has dropped 16 percentage points, that towards the Taiwan people has dropped 12 percentage points, that towards the Taiwan government has dropped 9 percentage points, but their negative feeling towards the Thai and French governments have both risen by 9 percentage points. Barack Obama's becoming the President of the United States, thawing of cross-strait relationship, and demonstrations in Thailand may all have affected such figures. Readers can make their own judgment using detailed records shown in our 'Opinion Daily' feature page. It should be noted, however, that our survey only covers regions and countries best known to Hong Kong people. Hong Kong people may well like or dislike other places much more, but because they are not the most well-known places, they do not appear on the list by design."

Next Releases (Tentative)

May 26, 2009 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Popularity of CE and HKSAR Government

May 27, 2009 (Wednesday) 1pm to 2pm: June Fourth Incident anniversary survey

*Erratum: The date in the original release is "10/4/09".