HKU POP SITE releases popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang, Secretaries of Departments and Directors of Bureaux under the accountability systemBack
| Press Release on May 12, 2009 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Abstract | Latest Figures | Opinion Daily | Commentary | Next Release (Tentative) | | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Abstract The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong interviewed 1,006 Hong Kong people between 5 and 7 May by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. The survey was conducted shortly after the first case of swine flu was confirmed in Hong Kong, and a number of quarantine measures were being taken. Findings show that the popularity figures of all government officials have gone up, with Secretary for Food and Health York Chow taking the lead with a 17-percentage-point increase in his own approval rate. Director of POP Robert Chung considers this to be a clear sign that people support the government's first wave of anti-epidemic measures. Besides, compared to half a month ago, CE Donald Tsang's popularity has increased significantly. His support rating has climbed to 57.0 marks while his approval rate has gone up to 50% and his net approval rate (or approval rate minus disapproval rate) now stands at positive 13 percentage points. All three figures are at their record highs since June last year. For the Secretaries of Departments, compared to one month ago, all their support ratings have increased notably, while their approval rates have increased slightly. SJ Wong Yan-lung remains to be the most popular Secretary of Department. As for the Directors of Bureaux, compared to one month ago, the approval rates of all Directors have increased. Among them, the approval rate of Secretary for Food and Health York Chow has rocketed 17 percentage points, reaching a record high since February last year, obviously due to his performance in fighting against the epidemic. Other Directors of Bureaux whose approval rates have registered changes beyond sampling errors include Secretary for Transport and Housing Eva Cheng, Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan and Secretary for the Civil Service Denise Yue. Their approval rates have gone up by 10, 9 and 5 percentage points respectively. Among all Secretaries and Directors, none have negative popularity, meaning that all have approval rates higher than disapproval rates. According to the benchmarks set by us quite some time ago, no official now falls under the categories of "'ideal" performance. Ambrose Lee, Wong Yan-lung, Carrie Lam and Matthew Cheung can be labeled as "successful", Donald Tsang, York Chow, Henry Tang, Eva Cheng, John Tsang, Michael Suen, Edward Yau, Tsang Tak-sing, Stephen Lam and Ceajer Chan can be labeled as "mediocre", and Denise Yue and Rita Lau can be labeled as "inconspicuous". No official falls under the categories of "depressing" or "disastrous". The sampling error of all approval and disapproval rates is between +/-1 and 4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures needs another calculation. The response rate of the survey is 67%. Points to note: * The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there. * The sample size of this survey is 1,006 successful interviews, not 1,006 x 66.5% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake. * The maximum sampling error of all approval and disapproval rates is between +/-1 and 4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures needs another calculation. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-1.2 and sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level". * When quoting percentages of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used, in order to match the precision level of the figures. * The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Latest Figures POP today releases on schedule via the POP Site the latest figures of CE Donald Tsang, Secretaries of Departments and Directors of Bureaux under the accountability system. As a general practice, all figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2008 year-end. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:
As different questions involve different sub-samples, the sample errors will vary accordingly. The table below briefly shows the relationship between sample size and maximum sampling errors for the readers to capture the corresponding changes:
"Maximum sampling errors" occur when survey figures are close to 50%. If the figures are close to 0% or 100%, the sampling error will diminish accordingly. The sampling errors of ratings, however, will depend on the distribution of the raw figures. Since January 2007, POP lists out the sampling errors of all survey figures in detail and explain them in due course. Recent popularity figures of Donald Tsang are summarized as follows:
# Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful. Figures on the latest popularity ratings of the three Secretaries of Departments under the accountability system are summarized below:
** Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-1.2, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site. ^ These questions only use sub-samples of the survey concerned. The sub-sample sizes of questions on John Tsang's support rating and hypothetical voting were 591 and 590 respectively. Regarding the change of John Tsang's popularity figures, one can compare them per poll, or with other officials' figures after synchronizing them to the same cycle. # Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful. Figures on the latest popularity ratings of Directors of Bureaux under the accountability system are summarized below:
** Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site. # Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful. ^ The approval rates of Secretary for Development Carrie Lam and Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung are 54.1% and 53.9% respectively. ^^ The approval rates of Secretary for Education Michael Suen and Secretary for the Environment Edward Yau are 37.4% and 37.2% respectively. The latest survey showed that, CE Donald Tsang scored 57.0 marks, and 50% supported him as the Chief Executive. Meanwhile, the corresponding ratings of CS Henry Tang Ying-yen, FS John Tsang Chun-wah and SJ Wong Yan-lung were 57.0, 54.6 and 62.8 marks, and 46%, 42% and 63% would vote for their reappointment correspondingly. As for the Directors of Bureaux, results revealed that the top approval rate fell to Secretary for Security Ambrose Lee Siu-kwong, attaining 66%. Secretary for Development Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor and Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung Kin-chung shared the 2nd rank as both gained 54% vote of confidence from the public. Secretary for Food and Health York Chow Yat-ngok and Secretary for Transport and Housing Eva Cheng Yu-wah occupied the 4th and 5th ranks with respective support rates of 49% and 43%. Secretary for Education Michael Suen Ming-yeung and Secretary for Environment Edward Yau Tang-wah shared the 6th rank as both gained 37% vote of confidence from the public. The 8th to 11th ranks fell to Secretary for the Civil Service Denise Yue Chung-yee, Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing, Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Stephen Lam Sui-lung and Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan Ka-keung with respective support rates of 35%, 34%, 32% and 31%. The 12th rank went to Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Rita Lau Ng Wai-lan, achieving 27% of public support. In other words, only Ambrose Lee Siu-kwong, Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor and Matthew Cheung Kin-chung scored approval rates of over 50% among all Directors of Bureaux. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Opinion Daily In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to "Opinion Daily" as soon as they are verified by POP. For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey of some items was conducted from April 1 to 5, 09 while this survey was conducted from May 5 to 7, 09. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.
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| Commentary Note: The following commentary was written by Director of POP Robert Chung. Our latest survey was conducted shortly after the first case of swine flu was confirmed in Hong Kong, and a number of quarantine measures were being taken. According to our findings, the popularity figures of all government officials have gone up, with Secretary for Food and Health York Chow taking the lead with a 17-percentage-point increase in his own approval rate. This clearly indicates that people support the government's first wave of anti-epidemic measures. Besides, compared to half a month ago, CE Donald Tsang's popularity has increased significantly. His support rating has climbed to 57.0 marks while his approval rate has gone up to 50% and his net approval rate (or approval rate minus disapproval rate) now stands at positive 13 percentage points. All three figures are at their record highs since June last year. For the Secretaries of Departments, compared to one month ago, all their support ratings have increased notably, while their approval rates have increased slightly. SJ Wong Yan-lung remains to be the most popular Secretary of Department. As for the Directors of Bureaux, compared to one month ago, the approval rates of all Directors have increased. Among them, the approval rate of Secretary for Food and Health York Chow has rocketed 17 percentage points, reaching a record high since February last year, obviously due to his performance in fighting against the epidemic. Other Directors of Bureaux whose approval rates have registered changes beyond sampling errors include Secretary for Transport and Housing Eva Cheng, Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan and Secretary for the Civil Service Denise Yue. Their approval rates have gone up by 10, 9 and 5 percentage points respectively. Among all Secretaries and Directors, none have negative popularity, meaning that all have approval rates higher than disapproval rates. According to the benchmarks set by us quite some time ago, no official now falls under the categories of "'ideal" performance. Ambrose Lee, Wong Yan-lung, Carrie Lam and Matthew Cheung can be labeled as "successful", Donald Tsang, York Chow, Henry Tang, Eva Cheng, John Tsang, Michael Suen, Edward Yau, Tsang Tak-sing, Stephen Lam and Ceajer Chan can be labeled as "mediocre", and Denise Yue and Rita Lau can be labeled as "inconspicuous". No official falls under the categories of "depressing" or "disastrous". Other than for the fight against swine flu, readers can make their own judgment on the reasons affecting the popularity change of these officials using detailed records shown in our "Opinion Daily" feature page. The following table summarizes the grading of the principal officials for readers' easy reference:
^^ The approval rate of CE Donald Tsang Yam-kuen is 50.0% in 1 decimal place. * The approval rates of Secretary for Development Carrie Lam and Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung are 54.1% and 53.9% respectively. ** The approval rates of Secretary for Education Michael Suen and Secretary for the Environment Edward Yau are 37.4% and 37.2% respectively. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next Release (Tentative)
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| | Abstract | Latest Figures | Opinion Daily | Commentary | Next Release (Tentative) | | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
*Erratum: The date in the original release is "10/4/09".
