HKU POP SITE releases latest trust and confidence indicatorsBack

Press Release on May 5, 2009

| Abstract | Latest Figures | Opinion Daily | Commentary | Next Release (Tentative) |
| Detailed Findings (People's Trust in the HKSAR Government/People's Trust in the Taiwan Government) |
| Detailed Findings (People's Trust in the Beijing Central Government) |
| Detailed Findings (People's Confidence in HK's Future/People's Confidence in China's Future) |
| Detailed Findings (People's Confidence in "One Country, Two Systems") |

Abstract

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong interviewed 1,014 Hong Kong people between 21 and 23 April by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. Our survey finds that compared to two months ago, almost all 6 trust and confidence indicators have increased. Amongst them, 3 have gone up significantly, including people's trust in the Taiwan government, people's trust in the central government and people's confidence in the future of China. In our latest survey, people's trust in the central government is still 14 percentage points higher than that of the local government. As for people's confidence in the future, optimism in the future of China exceeds 90% again, and is at all-time record high since this survey began in 1997. Together with people's confidence in the future of Hong Kong and the 'one country, two systems', the 3 confidence indicators have remained high at about 70% to 90%. Director of POP Robert Chung cautioned, this survey was conducted before the first case of swine influenza (Influenza A H1N1) in Hong Kong was confirmed. Exactly how government's performance in handling the epidemic affects various popularity figures is yet to be seen. The sampling error of all percentages is between +/-2 to 3 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the response rate of the survey is 69%.

Points to note:

* The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
* The sample size of this survey is 1,014 successful interviews, not 1,014 x 68.9% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
* The maximum sampling error of all percentages is below +/-2 to 3 percentage points at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level".
* When quoting percentages of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places in order to match the precision level of the figures.
* The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

Latest Figures

POP today releases on schedule via the POP Site the latest findings on people's trust in the HKSAR, Beijing Central and Taiwan Governments, their confidence in Hong Kong's future, China's future and "one country, two systems". As a general practice, all figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2008 year-end. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:

Date of survey	Overall sample size	Response rate	Sampling error of percentages*
21-23/4/2009	1,014	68.9%	+/-3%

* Calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.

Recent popularity figures of SAR, Central and Taiwan Governments, and people's confidence in the future are summarized below:

Date of survey	25-26/8/08	27-29/10/08	23-29/12/08	23-26/2/09	21-23/4/09	Latest Change
Sample base	1,065	1,015	1,022	1,020	1,014	--
Overall response rate	70.3%	70.3%	72.8%	66.5%	68.9%	--
Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding & error*
Trust in HKSAR Government**	45%#	41%#	42%	43%	43% +/-3%	--
Distrust in HKSAR Government**	16%#	21%#	19%	19%	18% +/-2%	-1%
Trust in Beijing Government**	49%#	54%#	56%	50%#	57% +/-3%	+7%#
Distrust in Beijing Government**	14%	15%	14%	16%	14% +/-2%	-2%
Trust in Taiwan Government**	12%#	15%#	14%	11%#	19% +/-3%	+8%#
Distrust in Taiwan Government**	40%#	46%#	45%	44%	36% +/-3%	-8%#
Confidence in HK's future	74%	67%#	69%	69%	70% +/-3%	+1%
No-confidence in HK's future	20%	25%#	24%	28%#	24% +/-3%	-4%#
Confidence in China's future	89%	84%#	91%#	87%#	91% +/-2%	+4%#
No-confidence in China's future	7%	11%#	6%#	9%#	7% +/-2%	-2%
Confidence in "one country, two systems"	74%	69%#	73%#	72%	73% +/-3%	+1%
No-confidence in "one country, two systems"	20%	25%#	21%#	22%	22% +/-3%	--

* Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
** Collapsed from a 5-point scale.
# Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

Survey conducted in late-April revealed that 43% of the respondents trusted the HKSAR Government, 57% trusted the Beijing Central Government, and 19% trusted the Taiwan Government. On the other hand, 70% of the respondents had confidence in Hong Kong's future and 91% had confidence in China's future, while 73% of the respondents were confident in "one country, two systems".

Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to "Opinion Daily" as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from February 23 to 26, 2009 while this survey was conducted from April 21 to 23, 2009. In between these two surveys, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

22/4/09	The Court of Appeal blocks PCCW's privatization.
18/4/09	The central government rolls out a raft of measures to help Hong Kong through the global economic meltdown.
17/4/09	Cathay Pacific asks its staff to take unpaid leave.
16/4/09	China's economy expands 6.1% year on year in the first quarter.
*11/4/09	Premier Wen Jiabao reminds HK people to strive to stabilize its status of financial centre.
9/4/09	Hong Kong is preparing for the development of RMB business.
6/4/09	PCCW privatization on hold after SFC made an appeal to the court.
2/4/09	G20 leaders agree to plegde an adidtional $1.1 trillion for economic recovery.
31/3/09	Tang to head new safety task force after inquest into teen tragedy.
27/3/09	Lawmakers urged not to use offensive language.
15/3/09	35 pan-democrats are allowed to enter Macau while another 5 are refused.
13/3/09	Premier Wen Jiabao pledges that China is capable of launching a new stimulus package at any time.
5/3/09	Premier Wen Jiabao presents report on government work.
2/3/09	HSBC seeks HK$140b in new funds.
28/2/09	Wen Jiabao debutes online chat with netizens.
25/2/09	John Tsang delivers budget speech with short-term strategies of countering financial crisis and preserving job.

Commentary

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "Compared to two months ago, almost all 6 trust and confidence indicators have increased. Amongst them, 3 have gone up significantly, including people's trust in the Taiwan government, people's trust in the central government and people's confidence in the future of China. In our latest survey, people's trust in the central government is still 14 percentage points higher than that of the local government. As for people's confidence in the future, optimism in the future of China exceeds 90% again, and is at all-time record high since this survey began in 1997. Together with people's confidence in the future of Hong Kong and the 'one country, two systems', the 3 confidence indicators have remained high at about 70% to 90%. As for the reasons affecting the ups and downs of these figures, readers are welcome to make their own judgment using the detailed records displayed in our 'Opinion Daily'. It should be noted, however, that this survey was conducted before the first case of swine influenza (Influenza A H1N1) in Hong Kong was confirmed. Exactly how government's performance in handling the epidemic affects various popularity figures is yet to be seen."

Next Release (Tentative)

May 12, 2009 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Popularity of CE, Secretaries and Directors

*Erratum: The date in the original release is "10/4/09".