HKU POP SITE releases the latest ratings of the Top 10 Legislative CouncillorsBack

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong conducted a double stage survey on the ranking of Legislative Councillors in April, by means of random telephone surveys conducted by real interviewers. This third round of "top 10" survey after the formation of the new Legco shows that Andrew Cheng who entered the list for the first time last round fails to obtain high enough unprompted mentions in our latest naming survey. His position is replaced by Albert Chan who enters the list for the first time, to occupy the eighth place. Compared to three months ago, the popularity ratings of most "top 10" Legco members have dropped. Those with significant drops include Wong Yuk-man, Leung Kwok-hung, Albert Chan and Lee Cheuk-yan, while only Jasper Tsang registers a significant increase. Among them, the ratings of Wong Yuk-man, Leung Kwok-hung and Albert Chan have plummeted by 7.1, 4.3 and 4.0 marks respectively, probably due to the "foul language incidence". In terms of relative rankings, Audrey Eu and Alan Leong continue to occupy the first and second places, while Regina Ip climbs one place to the third. For others remaining on the list, their relative positions have changed just within two places. The sampling errors of the ratings registered fall between +/-1.2 and 1.7 while the response rate of the rating survey is 69%.

Points to note:

* The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
* The sample size of the first stage naming survey is 1,010 successful interviews, not 1,010 x 67.5% response rate, while the sample size of the second stage rating survey is 1,014 successful interviews, not 1,014 x 68.9% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-1.7 at 95% confidence level" when quoting the rating figures. In view of the error margins, one decimal place can be used when quoting these rating figures.
* The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

POP today releases on schedule via the "POP SITE" the latest popularity figures of the Top 10 Legislative Councillors. As a general practice, all figures have already been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2008 year-end. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:

Date of survey	Overall sample size	Response rate	Sampling error of percentages/ratings*
6-9/4/09 (First stage naming survey)	1,010	67.5%	+/-3%
21-23/4/09 (Second stage rating survey)	1,014	68.9%	+/-1.7

* Calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.

The research design of our "Top 10 Legislative Councillors" has been explained in detail under "Survey Method" in our corresponding web page. The top councillors listed in our latest survey were all those who obtained the highest unprompted mentions in our first stage naming survey conducted in early-April. In that survey, respondents could name, unaided, up to 10 legislators whom they knew best. Leung Kwok-hung, Wong Yuk-man, Emily Lau, Lau Kong-wah and Audrey Eu were mentioned most frequently. Please refer to the relevant table for the rest of the list. Those 12 who were named most frequently then entered into the second stage rating survey. During the second stage rating survey conducted in late-April, respondents were asked to rate each legislator in turn using a 0-100 scale. 0 indicates absolutely no support, 100 indicates absolute support, and 50 means half-half. After calculation, the bottom 2 legislators in terms of recognition rate were dropped; the remaining 10 were then ranked according to their support ratings attained to become the top 10 Legislative Councillors. For easy reference, the POP Site has already displayed the results of all naming surveys conducted since the year 1998. Recent ratings of top 10 Legislative Councillors are summarized below:

Date of survey	16-18/4/08	9-10/7/08	22-24/10/08	19-21/1/09	21-23/4/09	Latest change
Sample base	1,009	1,008	1,018	1,011	1,014	--
Overall response rate	69.6%	69.5%	70.5%	76.5%	68.9%	--
Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding & error*	--
Audrey Eu	62.6[2]#	65.3[2]#	60.2[1]#	60.9[1]	59.9[1] +/-1.2	-1.0
Alan Leong	--	--	--	59.0[2]	58.0[2] +/-1.3	-1.0
Regina Ip	Not a LC member then		53.5[5]	56.4[4]#	56.5[3] +/-1.2	+0.1
Albert Ho	--	--	55.5[4]	56.0[6]	55.9[4] +/-1.3	-0.1
Lee Cheuk-yan	53.3[6]	58.9[4]#	56.3[3]#	56.4[4]	55.0[5] +/-1.3	-1.4#
Jasper Tsang	52.2[7]#	52.4[9]	45.4[8]#	51.2[7]#	53.8[6] +/-1.3	+2.6#
Emily Lau	52.2[7]#	56.4[6]#	52.0[7]#	51.2[7]	50.8[7] +/-1.4	-0.4
Albert Chan	--	--	49.0[**]	45.2[**]#	41.2[8] +/-1.7	-4.0#
Wong Yuk-man	Not a LC member then		43.3[9]	42.1[9]	35.0[9] +/-1.7	-7.1#
Leung Kwok-hung	35.9[10]#	36.6[10]	39.0[10]#	36.5[10]#	32.2[10] +/-1.7	-4.3#
Cheung Man-kwong	--	--	--	--	56.3[**] +/-1.4	--
Lau Kong-wah	--	--	47.5[**]	47.5[**]	49.4[**] +/-1.4	+1.9#
Andrew Cheng	--	--	--	56.8[3]	--	--
Fred Li	--	--	56.4[2]	--	--	--
Tam Yiu-chung	56.9[**]#	55.0[**]#	52.2[6]#	--	--	--
Rita Fan^	68.7[1]#	70.5[1]#	--	--	--	--
Anson Chan^	58.5[3]#	59.7[3]	--	--	--	--
James Tien^	57.3[5]#	58.4[5]	--	--	--	--
Selina Chow^	57.7[4]#	55.8[7]#	--	--	--	--
Martin Lee^	50.9[9]#	55.2[8]#	--	--	--	--
Lee Wing-tat	--	56.1[**]	--	--	--	--
Chan Yuen-han^	60.7[**]	--	--	--	--	--
James To	53.1[**]	--	--	--	--	--

* Errors are calculated at "95% confidence level", meaning that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-1.7 at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
** Ratings with recognition rates not reaching top 10 in either stage of survey are not available.
[ ] Number in square brackets indicates rankings.
# Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.
^ Former Legislative Councillors

The latest survey conducted in late-April showed that Audrey Eu was the most popularly supported councillor attaining 59.9 marks while Alan Leong and Regina Ip ranked the 2nd and 3rd with 58.0 and 56.5 marks correspondingly. The 4th to 8th ranks went to Albert Ho, Lee Cheuk-yan, Jasper Tsang, Emily Lau and Albert Chan who attained 55.9, 55.0, 53.8, 50.8 and 41.2 marks respectively. The 9th and 10th ranks went to Wong Yuk-man and Leung Kwok-hung who attained 35.0 and 32.2 marks respectively. The mean score obtained by the top 5 councillors was 57.1 marks, while that for the top 10 was 49.8 marks. For this latest survey, Cheung Man-kwong and Lau Kong-wah obtained support ratings of 56.3 and 49.4 marks respectively, but they were dropped due to their relatively low recognition rates. The overall ratings ranked according to results obtained over the past 12 calendar months are tabulated as follows:

Date of survey	9-10/7/08	22-24/10/08	19-21/1/09	21-23/4/09	No. of times on top 10	Average rating*	Overall ranking**
Audrey Eu	65.3	60.2	60.9	59.9	4	61.6	1
Lee Cheuk-yan	58.9	56.3	56.4	55.0	4	56.7	2
Emily Lau	56.4	52.0	51.2	50.8	4	52.6	3
Jasper Tsang	52.4	45.4	51.2	53.8	4	50.7	4
Leung Kwok-hung	36.6	39.0	36.5	32.2	4	36.1	5
Albert Ho	-	55.5	56.0	55.9	3	55.8	6
Regina Ip	-	53.5	56.4	56.5	3	55.4	7
Wong Yuk-man	-	43.3	42.1	35.0	3	40.1	8
Alan Leong	-	-	59.0	58.0	2	58.5	9
Rita Fan^	70.5	-	-	-	1	70.5	10
Anson Chan^	59.7	-	-	-	1	59.7	11
James Tien^	58.4	-	-	-	1	58.4	12
Andrew Cheng	-	-	56.8	-	1	56.8	13
Fred Li	-	56.4	-	-	1	56.4	14
Selina Chow^	55.8	-	-	-	1	55.8	15
Martin Lee^	55.2	-	-	-	1	55.2	16
Tam Yiu-chung	-	52.2	-	-	1	52.2	17
Albert Chan	-	-	-	41.2	1	41.2	18

* "Average rating" is the average of all ratings obtained by Legislative Councillors over the past 12 months.
** "Overall ranking" is first determined by their number of times on top 10, and then their average ratings.
^ Former Legislative Councillors

The overall rankings in the past 12 months showed that five Legislative Councillors have been on the list for four times. They are Audrey Eu in the top rank achieving an average rating of 61.6 marks, Lee Cheuk-yan, Emily Lau, Jasper Tsang and Leung Kwok-hung who ranked the 2nd to 5th and attained 56.7, 52.6, 50.7 and 36.1 marks correspondingly. Albert Ho, Regina Ip and Wong Yuk-man have been on the list for three times and ranked the 6th to 8th with 55.8, 55.4 and 40.1 marks. Alan Leong have been on the list for two times and ranked the 9th with 58.5 marks. Rita Fan, Anson Chan, James Tien, Andrew Cheng, Fred Li, Selina Chow, Martin Lee, Tam Yiu-chung and Albert Chan have been on the list once and ranked the 10th to 18th with 70.5, 59.7, 58.4, 56.8, 56.4, 55.8, 55.2, 52.2 and 41.2 marks.

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to provide readers with accurate information so that they can judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP since July 24 each day a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to the "Opinion Daily" feature page as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from January 19 to 21, 2009 while this survey was conducted from April 21 to 23, 2009. In between these two surveys, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

20/4/09	Court of Appeal judge regards PCCW's buyout as "outrageous".
6/4/09	PCCW privatization on hold after SFC made an appeal to the court.
27/3/09	Lawmakers urged not to use offensive language.
16/3/09	Tai Sang Wai villagers protest at Fairview Park entrance blocking trucks from using the road.
15/3/09	35 pan-democrats are allowed to enter Macau while another 5 are refused.
6/2/09	Government weighs six steps to reduce drinking and driving.
4/2/09	PCCW's privatisation is approved.
30/1/09	Government announces a net surplus of HK$30.9 billion.

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "Our third round of 'top 10' survey after the formation of the new Legco shows that Andrew Cheng who entered the list for the first time last round fails to obtain high enough unprompted mentions in our latest naming survey. His position is replaced by Albert Chan who enters the list for the first time, to occupy the eighth place. Compared to three months ago, the popularity ratings of most 'top 10' Legco members have dropped. Those with significant drops include Wong Yuk-man, Leung Kwok-hung, Albert Chan and Lee Cheuk-yan, while only Jasper Tsang registers a significant increase. Among them, the ratings of Wong Yuk-man, Leung Kwok-hung and Albert Chan have plummeted by 7.1, 4.3 and 4.0 marks respectively, probably due to the 'foul language incidence'. In terms of relative rankings, Audrey Eu and Alan Leong continue to occupy the first and second places, while Regina Ip climbs one place to the third. For others remaining on the list, their relative positions have changed just within two places. It should be noted, however, that our list of 'top 10' only includes Legco members who are best known to the public, ranked according to their support ratings. Some of the other 50 councillors may well have very high or low support ratings, but because they are not the most well-known councillors, they do not appear on the 'top 10' list by design. We leave it for our readers to figure out the reasons for the ups and downs of these popularity ratings using detailed records shown in our 'Opinion Daily' feature page."

• May 5, 2009 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: 6 latest trust and confidence indicators