HKU POP SITE releases the latest popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang and the HKSAR GovernmentBack
| Press Release on April 28, 2009 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Abstract | Latest Figures | Opinion Daily | Commentary | Next Release (Tentative) | | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Abstract The Public Opinion Programme at the University of Hong Kong interviewed 1,014 Hong Kong people between 21 and 23 April by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. The survey finds that compared to two weeks as well as one month ago, the popularity figures of the CE and the SAR Government have all changed within sampling errors, meaning small fluctuations. CE Donald Tsang's net popularity (meaning approval rate minus disapproval rate) now stands at positive 4 percentage points, while the net popularity of the SAR Government (meaning satisfaction rate minus dissatisfaction rate) now stands at negative 9 percentage points. Director of POP Robert Chung expects that the way government handles the fast spreading swine flu epidemic would directly affect its popularity to come. The sampling error of all percentages is below +/- 3 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figure is below +/-1.3 marks. The response rate of the survey is 69%. Points to note: * The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there. * The sample size of this survey is 1,014 successful interviews, not 1,014 x 68.9% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake. * The maximum sampling error of all percentages is below +/-3 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figure is below +/-1.3 marks. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error below +/-3% at 95% confidence level for percentage figures, and +/-1.3 for rating figure". * When quoting percentages of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used, in order to match the precision level of the figures. * The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Latest Figures POP today releases on schedule via the "POP SITE" the latest popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang and the HKSAR Government. As a general practice, all figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2008 year-end. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:
Recent popularity figures of Donald Tsang and people's satisfaction of the overall performance of the HKSAR Government are summarized as follows:
** Collapsed from a 5-point scale. ^ These questions only use sub-samples of the survey concerned. The sub-sample sizes of questions on CE's support rating and hypothetical voting were 543 and 572 respectively. # Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful. The latest survey conducted in late-April showed that, CE Donald Tsang scored 53.2 marks, and 44% supported him as the Chief Executive while another 40% opposed. Regarding people's appraisal of the overall performance of the HKSAR Government, the latest figures revealed that 25% were satisfied, whereas 34% were dissatisfied. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Opinion Daily In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to "Opinion Daily" as soon as they are verified by POP. For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey of some items was conducted from March 9 to 11, 2009 while this survey was conducted from April 21 to 23, 2009. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.
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| Commentary Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "Compared to two weeks as well as one month ago, the popularity figures of the CE and the SAR Government have all changed within sampling errors, meaning small fluctuations. CE Donald Tsang's net popularity (meaning approval rate minus disapproval rate) now stands at positive 4 percentage points, while the net popularity of the SAR Government (meaning satisfaction rate minus dissatisfaction rate) now stands at negative 9 percentage points. As for the reasons affecting the ups and downs of these figures, we leave it to our readers to form their own judgment using detailed records displayed in our 'Opinion Daily'. However, it can be expected that the way government handles the fast spreading swine flu epidemic would directly affect its popularity to come." | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next Release (Tentative)
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| | Abstract | Latest Figures | Opinion Daily | Commentary | Next Release (Tentative) | |
