HKU POP SITE releases survey findings on the Executive Councilors, Under Secretaries and Political AssistantsBack

The Public Opinion Programme at the University of Hong Kong conducted a double stage survey on the ranking of non-official Executive Councillors, Under Secretaries and Political Assistants in April, by means of random telephone surveys conducted by real interviewers. The surveys find that compared to three months ago, the popularity ratings of people's most familiar non-official Executive Councillors have generally increased. Among them, Ronald Arculli and Leung Chun-ying's ratings have significantly increased. In terms of relative ranking, Ronald Arculli continues to top the list, Leung Chun-ying moves up 3 places to become the second, while Lau Kong-wah and Cheng Yiu-tong stay at the third and fourth positions. Lau Wong-fat enters the list for the first time to become the fifth. Regarding Under Secretaries and Political Assistants, it was found that 2 out of 8 Under Secretaries and 3 out of 9 Political Assistants receive zero recognition, while no official has a recognition rate up to 2%. The situation is almost like that of three months ago, meaning that people are still not at all familiar with the team. Nearly a year have elapsed since the government announced the appointment of these officials, but over one-quarter of them still have zero recognition. The situation is far from satisfactory. The sampling errors of the ratings registered fall between +/-1.3 and 1.6 while the response rate of the rating survey is 68%.

POP today releases on schedule via the "POP SITE" the latest ratings of the Top 5 members of Executive Council. As a general practice, all figures have already been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2008 year-end. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:

Date of survey	Overall sample size	Response rate	Sampling error of percentages/ratings*
1-5/4/2009 （First stage naming survey）	1,001	67.5%	+/-3%
6-9/4/2009 （Second stage rating survey）	1,010	67.5%	+/-1.6

* Calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Sampling errors of ratings are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.

The research design of our "Top 5 Executive Councilors" is similar to that of our "Top 10" series, it is explained in detail under "Survey Method" in our web page. The top councillors listed in our latest survey were all those who obtained the highest unprompted mentions in our first stage naming survey conducted in early-April. In that survey, respondents could name, unaided, up to 5 non-official Executive Councillors whom they knew best. Leung Chun-ying, Lau Wong-fat, Lau Kong-wah, Cheng Yiu-tong, Ronald Arculli, Anthony Cheung, Laura Cha, Anna Wu, Lawrence Lau and Yeh V Nee were the ten most frequently mentioned councillors. Please refer to the relevant table in our website for the rest of the list. Those 6 who were named most frequently then entered into the second stage rating survey. During the second stage rating survey conducted in early-April, respondents were asked to rate each short-listed councillor in turn using a 0-100 scale. 0 indicates absolutely no support, 100 indicates absolute support, and 50 means half-half. After calculation, the bottom 1 councillors in terms of recognition rate was dropped; the remaining 5 were then ranked according to their support ratings attained to become the top 5 Executive Councillors. Recent ratings of the top 5 members of Executive Council are summarized as follows:

Date of survey	23-25/4/08	23-25/7/08	27-29/10/08	12-13/1/2009	6-9/4/09		Latest change
Sample base	1,029	1,007	1,015	1,015	1,010		--
Overall response rate	68.1%	67.4%	70.3%	70.2%	67.5%		--
Finding / Recognition rate	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding and Error*	Recognition rate	--
Ronald Arculli	61.1 [1]	63.3 [1] #	54.9 [1] #	55.5 [1]	57.1 +/-1.3 [1]	76.1%	+1.6 #
Leung Chun-ying	51.2 [4]	56.3 [3] #	47.3 [4] #	49.1 [5] #	51.4 +/-1.4 [2]	79.8%	+2.3 #
Lau Kong-wah	Not a Exco member then		46.5 [5]	49.8 [3] #	51.1 +/-1.6 [3]	74.4%	+1.3
Cheng Yiu-tong	--	56.0 [4]	48.6 [3] #	49.6 [4]	51.0 +/-1.5 [4]	69.1%	+1.4
Lau Wong-fat	Not a Exco member then				46.4 +/-1.4 [5]	81.3%	--
Anthony Cheung	--	58.4 [**]	53.7 [2] #	55.2 [2]	55.6 +/-1.5[**]	54.3%	--
Laura Cha	53.6 [**]	--	--	49.3 [**]	--	--	--
Bernard Chan	55.5 [3]	58.4 [**]#	53.2 [**] #	--	--	--	--
Selina Chow	55.7 [2] #	58.4 [2] #	--	--	--	--	--
Jasper Tsang	49.8 [5]	53.4 [5] #	--	--	--	--	--

* Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level", meaning that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-1.6 at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
** Ratings with recognition rates not reaching top 5 in either stage of survey are not available.
[ ] Number in square brackets indicates rankings.
# Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

The latest survey conducted in early April showed that Ronald Arculli was the most popularly supported non-official Executive Councillor, attaining 57.1 marks. The 2nd to 4th ranks went to Leung Chun-ying, Lau Kong-wah and Cheng Yiu-tong with 51.4, 51.1 and 51.0 marks respectively. The 5th rank went to Lau Wong-fat with 46.4 marks. The mean score obtained by these top 5 non-official Executive Councillors was 51.4 marks. For this latest survey, Anthony Cheung obtained a support rating of 55.6 marks, but he was dropped due to his relatively low recognition rate. The overall ratings ranked according to results obtained over the past year are tabulated as follows:

Date of survey	23-25/7/08	27-29/10/08	12-13/1/09	6-9/4/09	No. of times on top 5	Average rating*	Overall ranking**
Ronald Arculli	63.3	54.9	55.5	57.1	4	57.7	1
Cheng Yiu-tong	56.0	48.6	49.6	51.0	4	51.3	2
Leung Chun-ying	56.3	47.3	49.1	51.4	4	51.1	3
Lau Kong-wah	-	46.5	49.8	51.1	3	49.1	4
Anthony Cheung	^	53.7	55.2	^	2	54.4	5
Selina Chow	58.4	^	^	-	1	58.4	6
Jasper Tsang	53.4	^	^	-	1	53.4	7
Lau Wong-fat	^	^	^	46.4	1	46.4	8

* "Average rating" is the average of all ratings obtained by Executive Councillors over the past 4 surveys.
** "Overall ranking" is first determined by their number of times on top 10, and then their average ratings.
^ Ratings with recognition rates not reaching top 5 in either stage of survey are not available.

The overall rankings in the past year showed that three non-official Executive Councillors have been on the list for four times. Ronald Arculli, Cheung Yiu-yong and Leung Chun-ying achieved an average rating of 57.7, 51.3 and 51.1 marks, Lau Kong-wah has been on the list for three times with average rating of 49.1 marks and ranked 4th. Anthony Cheung has been on the list for two times and ranked 5th. Selina Chow, Jasper Tsang and Lau Wong-fat have been on the list once and ranked 6th to 8th with 58.4, 53.4 and 46.4 marks respectively.

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "This is the first regular survey conducted after the government announced the appointment of new Exco members on January 20. Compared to three months ago, the popularity ratings of people's most familiar non-official Executive Councillors have generally increased. Among them, Ronald Arculli and Leung Chun-ying's ratings have significantly increased. In terms of relative ranking, Ronald Arculli continues to top the list, Leung Chun-ying moves up 3 places to become the second, while Lau Kong-wah and Cheng Yiu-tong stay at the third and fourth positions. Lau Wong-fat enters the list for the first time to become the fifth. It should be noted, however, that our list of 'top five' only includes non-official councillors best known to the public, ranked according to their support ratings. Some of the other councillors may well have very high or low support ratings, but because they are not the most well-known councillors, they do not appear on the list by design. As for the reasons affecting the ups and downs of these popularity ratings, we leave it to our readers to form their own judgment using the detailed records displayed in the 'Opinion Daily' of our POP Site."

In May 2008, the HKSAR Government announced the list of newly employed Under Secretaries and Political Assistants. POP has now conducted a survey to gauge people's familiarity with these officials, as a test of their popularity. Herewith the contact information for the survey:

Date of survey	Overall sample size	Response rate	Sampling error of percentages*
1-5/4/2009	1,001	67.5%	+/-3%

* Calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.

Herewith the result of our latest survey on "people's most familiar Under Secretaries":

Date of survey	22-24/10/08	2-6/1/09	1-5/4/2009		Latest change
Sub-sample base	665	666	516		--
Latest finding/Rank	Percentage	Percentage	Percentage and Error*	Rank	--
Under Secretary for the Education Kenneth Chen Wei-on	--	0.5%	1.1% +/- 1%	1	+0.6%
Under Secretary for the Environment Dr. Kitty Poon Kit	1.6%	1.3%	0.8% +/- 1%^	2	-0.5%
Under Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Julia Leung Fung-yee	3.3%#	0.4%#	0.8% +/- 1%^	3	+0.4%
Under Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Gregory So Kam-leung	4.0%	1.3%#	0.7% +/- 1%	4	-0.6%
Under Secretary for Home Affairs Florence Hui Hiu-fai	--	--	0.6% +/- 1%	5	--
Under Secretary for Transport and Housing Yau Shing-mu	0.5%	1.1%	0.2% +/- 1%	6	-0.9%
Under Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Raymond Tam Chi-yuen	0.4%#	0.4%	--	--	--
Under Secretary for Food and Health Professor Gabriel Matthew Leung	0.2%	0.2%	--	--	--
Wrongly answered the name of Secretaries of Departments/Directors of Bureaux	6.1%#	2.8%#	2.9% +/- 1%	--	+0.1%
Wrongly answered the name of Political Assistants	0.6%	2.2%#	2.1% +/- 1%	--	-0.1%
Wrongly answered the name of others	1.8%	1.5%	0.8% +/- 1%	--	-0.7%
Don't know	85.4%#	90.0%#	91.3% +/- 2%	--	+1.3%

* Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
# Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.
^ The percentages of respondents who could name Kitty Poon Kit and Julia Leung Fung-yee were 0.82% and 0.81% respectively. Hence Poon ranked the 2nd while Leung was placed at 3rd rank.

Herewith the result of our latest survey on "people's most familiar Political Assistants":

Date of survey	22-24/10/08	2-6/1/09	1-5/4/2009		Latest change
Sub-sample base	529	448	513		--
Latest finding/Rank	Percentage	Percentage	Percentage and Error*	Rank	--
Political Assistant to the Secretary for Education Jeremy Young Chit-on	0.8%	0.5%	0.7% +/- 1%	1	+0.2%
Political Assistant to the Secretary for Food & Health Paul Chan Chi-yuen	0.2%#	0.3%	0.5% +/- 1%	2	+0.2%
Political Assistant to the Secretary for Labour & Welfare Zandra Mok Yee-tuen	0.1%#	1.0%	0.5% +/- 1%	2	-0.5%
Political Assistant to the Secretary for Development Raymond Cheung Man-to	0.2%	0.3%	0.4% +/- 1%	4	+0.1%
Political Assistant to the Secretary for Environment Linda Choy Siu-min	--	--	0.3%+/- 1%	5	--
Political Assistant to the Secretary for Security Victor Lo Yik-kee	0.1%	0.2%	0.2% +/- 1%	6	--
Political Assistant to the Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Katherine Ng Kit-shuen	0.3%	0.3%	--	--	--
Wrongly answered the name of Secretaries of Departments/Directors of Bureaux	1.9%	1.5%	1.7% +/- 1%	--	+0.2%
Wrongly answered the name of Under Secretaries	0.7%	1.1%	0.9% +/- 1%	--	-0.2%
Wrongly answered the name of others	2.9%	2.7%	1.4% +/- 1%	--	-1.3%#
Don't know	93.0%#	92.4%	93.5% +/- 2%	--	+1.1%

* Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
# Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

In our naming survey conducted in early-April, respondents could name, unaided, Under Secretaries and Political Assistants whom they knew best. Results showed that only six Under Secretaries were mentioned, they were Chen Wei-on, Kitty Poon, Julia Leung, Gregory So, Florence Hui and Yau Shing-mu. The corresponding percentages of respondents who could name these figures were 1.1% and five obtaining less than 1%. Yet, 91% of the respondents could not recall any names of Under Secretaries. As for Political Assistants, similarly, only six Political Assistants were mentioned, they were Jeremy Young, Paul Chan, Zandra Mok, Raymond Cheung, Linda Choy and Victor Lo. The corresponding percentages of respondents who could name these figures were all less than 1%. Yet, 94% of the respondents could not recall any names of Political Assistants.

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "In our latest survey, 2 out of 8 Under Secretaries and 3 out of 9 Political Assistants receive zero recognition, while no official has a recognition rate up to 2%. The situation is almost like that of three months ago, meaning that people are still not at all familiar with the team. Nearly a year have elapsed since the government announced the appointment of these officials, but over one-quarter of them still have zero recognition. The situation is far from satisfactory. It should be noted, however, that our ranking of recognition is based on respondents' ability to name these officials unaided. This kind of familiarity measurement is not the same as prompted ratings, and the results may not necessarily indicate people's support of these officials. In other words, those high on the list may not be the most supported figures, while those lower down may have a different ranking if we use a prompting method. As for the reasons affecting the popularity of these officials, we leave it to our readers to form their own judgment using the detailed records displayed in the 'Opinion Daily' of our POP Site."

• April 21, 2009 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Performance of the media