HKU POP SITE releases the latest popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang and Principal OfficialsBack
| Press Release on April 7, 2009 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Abstract | Latest Figures | Opinion Daily | Commentary | Next Release (Tentative) | | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Abstract The Public Opinion Programme at the University of Hong Kong interviewed 1,001 Hong Kong people between 1 and 5 April by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. The survey shows that the popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang continue to rise. His support rating has almost gone back to the level registered before the Budget Speech, while his approval rate has also increased 3 percentage points to reach a 10-month high since June last year. His net approval rate (or approval rate minus disapproval rate) now stands at positive 8 percentage points, a record high since November last year. For the Secretaries of Departments, compared to a month ago, the popularity figures of CS Henry Tang have not changed much, while the approval rates and support ratings of FS John Tsang and SJ Wong Yan-lung have both increased significantly. As for the Directors of Bureaux, compared to a month ago, only three officials have registered changes in approval rates beyond sampling errors. They include Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing and Secretary for Food and Health York Chow, whose approval rates have gone up and down by 6 percentage points respectively, and Secretary for Education Michael Suen whose approval rate increased by 5 percentage points. Among all Secretaries and Directors, only Secretary for Food and Health York Chow, Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Stephen Lam and Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajar Chan have negative popularities, meaning that their disapproval rates are higher than their approval rates. Their net popularities now stand at -8, -2 and -1 percentage points. According to the benchmarks set by us quite some time ago, no official now falls under the category of "'ideal" performance. Ambrose Lee, Wong Yan-lung and Matthew Cheung can be labeled as "successful", Carrie Lam, Donald Tsang, Henry Tang, John Tsang, Michael Suen, Tsang Tak-sing, York Chow and Stephen Lam can be labeled as "mediocre", and Edward Yau, Eva Cheng, Denise Yue, Rita Lau and Ceajer Chan can be labeled as "inconspicuous". No official falls under the categories of "depressing" or "disastrous". The sampling error of all approval and disapproval rates is between +/-1 and 4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures needs another calculation. The response rate of the survey is 68%. Points to note: * The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there. * The sample size of this survey is 1,001 successful interviews, not 1,001 x 67.5% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake. * The maximum sampling error of all approval and disapproval rates is between +/-1 and 4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures needs another calculation. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-1.2 and sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level". * When quoting percentages of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used, in order to match the precision level of the figures. * The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Latest Figures POP today releases on schedule via POP SITE the latest popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang and Principal Officials under the accountability system. All the figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2008 year-end. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:
As different questions involve different sub-samples, the sample errors will vary accordingly. The table below briefly shows the relationship between sample size and maximum sampling errors for the readers to capture the corresponding changes:
"Maximum sampling errors" occur when survey figures are close to 50%. If the figures are close to 0% or 100%, the sampling error will diminish accordingly. The sampling errors of ratings, however, will depend on the distribution of the raw figures. Since January 2007, POP lists out the sampling errors of all survey figures in detail and explain them in due course. Recent popularity figures of Donald Tsang are summarized as follows:
^ These questions only use sub-samples of the survey concerned. The sub-sample sizes of questions on CE's support rating and hypothetical voting were 543 and 572 respectively. # Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful. Figures on the latest popularity ratings of the three Secretaries of Departments under the accountability system are summarized below:
** Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-1.2, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site. ^ These questions only use sub-samples of the survey concerned. The sub-sample sizes of questions on John Tsang's support rating and hypothetical voting were 591 and 590 respectively. Regarding the change of John Tsang's popularity figures, one can compare them per poll, or with other officials' figures after synchronizing them to the same cycle. # Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful. Figures on the latest popularity ratings of Directors of Bureaux under the accountability system are summarized below:
** Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site. # Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful. ^ The approval rates of Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing and Secretary for Food and Health York Chow are 32.3% and 31.8% respectively. The latest survey showed that, CE Donald Tsang scored 54.0 marks, and 47% supported him as the Chief Executive. Meanwhile, the corresponding ratings of CS Henry Tang Ying-yen, FS John Tsang Chun-wah and SJ Wong Yan-lung were 53.6, 51.1 and 60.3 marks, and 44%, 40% and 61% would vote for their reappointment correspondingly. As for the Directors of Bureaux, results revealed that the top approval rate fell to Secretary for Security Ambrose Lee Siu-kwong, attaining 63%. Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung Kin-chung and Secretary for Development Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor occupied the 2nd and 3rd ranks with respective support rates of 51% and 50%. Secretary for Education Michael Suen Ming-yeung, Secretary for Environment Edward Yau Tang-wah and Secretary for Transport and Housing Eva Cheng Yu-wah occupied the 4th to 6th ranks with respective support rates of 36%, 34% and 33%. Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing and Secretary for Food and Health York Chow Yat-ngok shared the 7th rank as both gained 32% vote of confidence from the public. Secretary for the Civil Service Denise Yue Chung-yee, Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Stephen Lam Sui-lung, Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Rita Lau Ng Wai-lan and Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan Ka-keung occupied the 9th to 12th ranks with respective support rates of 30%, 29%, 25% and 22%. In other words, only Ambrose Lee Siu-kwong and Matthew Cheung Kin-chung scored approval rates of over 50% among all Directors of Bureaux. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Opinion Daily In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to "Opinion Daily" as soon as they are verified by POP. For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey of some items was conducted from March 2 to 3, 2009 while this survey was conducted from April 1 to 5, 2009. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.
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| Commentary Note: The following commentary was written by Director of POP Robert Chung. Our latest survey shows that the popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang continue to rise. His support rating has almost gone back to the level registered before the Budget Speech, while his approval rate has also increased 3 percentage points to reach a 10-month high since June last year. His net approval rate (or approval rate minus disapproval rate) now stands at positive 8 percentage points, a record high since November last year. For the Secretaries of Departments, compared to a month ago, the popularity figures of CS Henry Tang have not changed much, while the approval rates and support ratings of FS John Tsang and SJ Wong Yan-lung have both increased significantly. As for the Directors of Bureaux, compared to a month ago, only three officials have registered changes in approval rates beyond sampling errors. They include Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing and Secretary for Food and Health York Chow, whose approval rates have gone up and down by 6 percentage points respectively, and Secretary for Education Michael Suen whose approval rate increased by 5 percentage points. Among all Secretaries and Directors, only Secretary for Food and Health York Chow, Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Stephen Lam and Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajar Chan have negative popularities, meaning that their disapproval rates are higher than their approval rates. Their net popularities now stand at -8, -2 and -1 percentage points. According to the benchmarks set by us quite some time ago, no official now falls under the category of "'ideal" performance. Ambrose Lee, Wong Yan-lung and Matthew Cheung can be labeled as "successful", Carrie Lam, Donald Tsang, Henry Tang, John Tsang, Michael Suen, Tsang Tak-sing, York Chow and Stephen Lam can be labeled as "mediocre", and Edward Yau, Eva Cheng, Denise Yue, Rita Lau and Ceajer Chan can be labeled as "inconspicuous". No official falls under the categories of "depressing" or "disastrous". As for the reasons affecting the popularity change of these officials, readers can make their own judgment using detailed records shown in our "Opinion Daily" feature page. The following table summarizes the grading of the principal officials for readers' easy reference:
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Next Release (Tentative)
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| | Abstract | Latest Figures | Opinion Daily | Commentary | Next Release (Tentative) | | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
