HKU POP SITE releases the latest ratings of top 10 political figures in Mainland China and TaiwanBack

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) of the University of Hong Kong conducted a double stage survey on the ranking of the top 10 political figures in Mainland China and Taiwan in March, by means of random telephone surveys conducted by real interviewers. The surveys find that compared to 6 months ago, not many changes have occurred in the list of top 10 political figures. On the awareness level, Wu Yi who was ranked the 4th last time has now dropped out of the list because of her relatively low recognition rate, while Lu Hsiu-lien has re-entered the list to occupy the 9th place. This makes our top 10 list of cross-strait political figures a 50:50 split again. In terms of support rating, most changes fall within sampling errors. Only the ratings of Lien Chan, Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao have changed beyond sampling errors and registered significant increases. Meanwhile, Chen Shui-bian continues to be affected by his family corruption case and obtains an extremely low score of 15 marks, which is also an all-time record low of this survey series. Wen Jiabao continues to top the list with almost 80 marks. Director of POP Robert Chung cautioned, "Top 10 Cross-Strait Political Figures" only include those best known to the Hong Kong public, ranked according to their support ratings. Other political figures may have very high or low support ratings, but they are excluded from the list because they are relatively less well-known. Chung also noted, with the defrost of cross-strait relations, and increasing exchanges between Hong Kong and Taiwan, one can expect Hong Kong people's knowledge of Taiwan politicians to increase, both in terms of breadth and depth. The sampling errors of the rating survey registered fall between +/-1.0 and 1.6 while the response rate of the rating survey is 63%.

Points to note:

* The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
* The sample size of the first stage naming survey is 1,019 successful interviews, not 1,019 x 65.2% response rate, while the sample size of the second stage rating survey is 1,007 successful interviews, not 1,007 x 63.3% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-1.6 at 95% confidence level" when quoting the rating figures. In view of the error margins, one decimal place can be used when quoting these rating figures.
* The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

POP SITE today releases on schedule the latest ratings of the top 10 political figures in Mainland China and Taiwan. All the figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2008 year-end. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:

Date of survey	Overall sample size	Response rate	Sampling error of percentages/ratings*
9-11/3/2009 （First stage naming survey）	1,019	65.2%	+/-3%
17-18/3/2009 (Second stage rating survey)	1,007	63.3%	+/-1.6

* Calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.

The research design of our "Top 10 political figures of Mainland China and Taiwan" has been explained in detail under "Survey Method" in our corresponding web site. The top political figures listed in our latest survey were all those who obtained highest unprompted mentions in our first stage naming survey conducted in early March. In that survey, respondents could name, unaided, up to 10 political figures whom they knew best. Ma Ying-jeou, Wen Jiabao, Hu Jintao, Chen Shui-bian and Xi Jinping were mentioned most frequently. Please refer to the relevant table for the rest of the list. The 12 most frequently mentioned political figures were then entered into the second stage of the survey conducted in mid-March, during which respondents were asked to rate each political figure in turn using a 0-100 scale. 0 indicates absolutely no support, 100 indicates absolute support, and 50 means half-half. After calculation, the bottom 2 political figures in terms of recognition rate were dropped; the remaining 10 were then ranked according to their support ratings attained to become the top 10 political figures. For easy reference, the POP Site has already displayed the results of all naming surveys conducted since June 1997. Recent ratings of the top political figures in Mainland China and Taiwan are summarized as follows:

Date of survey	17-21/9/07	25-27/3/08	23-29/9/08	17-18/3/09		Latest change
Sample base	1,008	1,015	1,027	1,007		--
Overall response rate	65.5%	65.8%	65.9%	63.3%		--
Latest finding / Recognition rate	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding and error*	Recognition rate	--
Wen Jiabao	75.5[1]	78.3[1]#	79.7[1]#	79.6 +/-1.0 [1]	98.6%	-0.1
Hu Jintao	73.5[3]	77.2[2]#	74.9[3]#	76.8 +/-1.0 [2]	97.4%	+1.9#
Zhu Rongji	74.1[2]	77.1[3]#	75.0[2]#	74.3 +/-1.0 [3]	91.1%	-0.7
Ma Ying-jeou	58.2[6]#	74.9[4]#	64.5[5]#	64.7 +/-1.2 [4]	94.4%	+0.2
Jiang Zemin	63.2[5]	63.3[6]	58.9[6]#	62.4 +/-1.2 [5]	92.6%	+3.5#
Lien Chan	51.0[**]	--	51.3[7]	54.9 +/-1.2 [6]	80.7%	+3.6#
Li Peng	44.9[7]	--	45.4[8]	45.3 +/-1.6 [7]	85.4%	-0.1
Lee Teng-hui	35.8[8]	40.9[8]#	38.8[9]#	39.0 +/-1.6 [8]	85.8%	+0.2
Lu Hsiu-lien	31.4[9]#	35.0[9]#	--	32.6 +/-1.4 [9]	86.7%	--
Chen Shui-bian	22.5[10]#	25.8[10]#	15.6[10]#	15.0 +/-1.2 [10]	96.5%	-0.6
Wu Yi	71.4[4]	74.0[5]#	69.7[4]#	68.6 +/-1.2 [**]	79.9%	-1.1
Xi Jinping	--	57.8[**]	63.3[**]#	63.1 +/-1.2 [**]	79.2%	-0.2
Zeng Qinghong	59.1[**]	61.2[**]#	63.0[**]#	--	--	--
Hsieh Chang-ting	--	41.1[7]	--	--	--	--

* Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-1.6 at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
** Ratings with recognition rates not reaching top 10 in either stage of survey are not listed.
[ ] Number in square brackets indicates rankings.
# Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

Survey conducted in mid-March revealed that, among the ten most well-known political figures in Mainland China and Taiwan, in terms of popularity rating, Wen Jiabao topped the list, attaining 79.6 marks. The 2nd and 3rd ranks went to Hu Jintao and Zhu Rongji with respective scores of 76.8 and 74.3 marks. Ma Ying-jeou, Jiang Zemin, Lien Chan and Li Peng occupied the 4th to 7th ranks with 64.7, 62.4, 54.9 and 45.3 marks correspondingly. The 8th to 10th ranks fell to Lee Teng-hui, Lu Hsiu-lien and Chen Shui-bian with respective scores of 39.0, 32.6 and 15.0 marks. For this latest survey, Wu Yi and Xi Jinping obtained support ratings of 68.6 and 63.1 marks respectively, but they were dropped due to their relatively low recognition rates. The mean score obtained by the top 5 political figures was 71.6 marks, while that for the top 10 was 54.5 marks. As for the overall ratings ranked according to results obtained over the past 18 calendar months are tabulated as follows:

Date of survey	17-21/9/07	25-27/3/08	23-29/9/08	17-18/3/09	No. of times on top 10	Average rating*	Overall ranking#
Wen Jiabao	75.5	78.3	79.7	79.6	4	78.3	1
Hu Jintao	73.5	77.2	74.9	76.8	4	75.6	2
Zhu Rongji	74.1	77.1	75.0	74.3	4	75.2	3
Ma Ying-jeou	58.2	74.9	64.5	64.7	4	65.6	4
Jiang Zemin	63.2	63.3	58.9	62.4	4	62.0	5
Lee Teng-hui	35.8	40.9	38.8	39.0	4	38.6	6
Chen Shui-bian	22.5	25.8	15.6	15.0	4	19.7	7
Wu Yi	71.4	74.0	69.7	^	3	71.7	8
Li Peng	44.9	^	45.4	45.3	3	45.2	9
Lu Hsiu-lien	31.4	35.0	^	32.6	3	33.0	10
Lien Chan	^	^	51.3	54.9	2	53.1	11
Hsieh Chang-ting	^	41.1	^	^	1	41.1	12

* "Average rating" is the average of all ratings obtained by political figures over the past 18 months.
^ Ratings with recognition rates not reaching top 10 in either stage of survey are not listed.
# "Overall ranking" is first determined by their number of times on top 10, and then their average ratings.

The overall rankings in the past 18 months showed that seven political figures have been on the list for four times. They are Wen Jiabao in the top rank achieving an average rating of 78.3 marks, Hu Jintao and Zhu Rongji who ranked 2nd and 3rd, attaining 75.6 and 75.2 marks correspondingly, Ma Ying-jeou, Jiang Zemin, Lee Teng-hui and Chen Shui-bian who ranked 4th to 7th with respective scores of 65.6, 62.0, 38.6 and 19.7 marks. Wu Yi, Li Peng and Lu Hsiu-lien have been on the list for three times with 71.7, 45.2 and 33.0 marks and ranked the 8th to 10th correspondingly. Lien Chan has been on the list for two times, attaining 53.1 marks at the 11th rank. Hsieh Chang-ting was listed once, and occupied the 12th rank.

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to "Opinion Daily" as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from September 23 to 29, 2008 while this survey was conducted from March 17 to 18, 2009. In between these two surveys, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

13/3/09	Premier Wen Jiabao pledges that China is capable of launching a new stimulus package at any time.
5/3/09	Premier Wen Jiabao presents report on government work.
28/2/09	Wen Jiabao debutes online chat with netizens.
10/2/09	Chen's wife admits forgery, laundering.
11/1/09	Vice President Xi Jinping calls on the people of Macau to strengthen their resolve and find solutions to the hardships facing the region.
10/1/09	Vice-President Xi Jinping urges Macau to diversify its economy to cope with the financial crisis.
31/12/08	President Hu Jintao addresses 6 points on political and military co-operation with Taiwan.
12/12/08	Chen Shui-bien charged with corruption facing a maximum sentence of life imprisonment.
11/11/08	Former Taiwanese president Chen Shui-bian is in custody for money-laundering.
6/11/08	The meeting between Taiwan's leader Ma Ying-jeou and Chen Yunlin lasts for 8 minutes.
29/10/08	Premier Wen Jiabao issued five pledges to help Hong Kong ride out the global financial storm.

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "Compared to 6 months ago, not many changes have occurred in the list of top 10 political figures. On the awareness level, Wu Yi who was ranked the 4th last time has now dropped out of the list because of her relatively low recognition rate, while Lu Hsiu-lien has re-entered the list to occupy the 9th place. This makes our top 10 list of cross-strait political figures a 50:50 split again. In terms of support rating, most changes fall within sampling errors. Only the ratings of Lien Chan, Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao have changed beyond sampling errors and registered significant increases. Meanwhile, Chen Shui-bian continues to be affected by his family corruption case and obtains an extremely low score of 15 marks, which is also an all-time record low of this survey series. Wen Jiabao continues to top the list with almost 80 marks. It should be noted, however, that our 'Top 10 Cross-Strait Political Figures' only include those best known to the Hong Kong public, ranked according to their support ratings. Other political figures may have very high or low support ratings, but they are excluded from the list because they are relatively less well-known. As for the reasons affecting the ups and downs of those figures on the list, we leave it to our readers to form their own judgment using the detailed records displayed in our 'Opinion Daily'. With the defrost of cross-strait relations, and increasing exchanges between Hong Kong and Taiwan, one can expect Hong Kong people's knowledge of Taiwan politicians to increase, both in terms of breadth and depth."

• April 7, 2009 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Popularity of CE and Officials