HKU POP SITE releases figures of people's satisfaction with Legco members in general, the Hong Kong Police Force and the PLA Hong Kong GarrisonBack

Press Release on March 26, 2009

| Abstract | Latest Figures | Opinion Daily | Commentary | Next Release (Tentative) |
| Detailed Findings (People's Satisfaction with the Performance of Members of the Fourth HKSAR Legislative Council) |
| Detailed Findings (People's Satisfaction with the Performance of the People's Liberation Army Hong Kong Garrison) |
| Detailed Findings (People's Satisfaction with the Performance of the Hong Kong Police Force) |

Abstract

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) of the University of Hong Kong interviewed 1,019 Hong Kong people between 9 and 11 March by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. The survey finds that people's dissatisfaction with the performance of Legco members has surged 11 percentage points over the past three months, now reaching a record high since January 2005. Legco's net popularity now stands at negative 19 percentage points, which is 7 negative points more than that of HKSARG over the same period. As for the two disciplinary forces, people's satisfaction with the Hong Kong Police Force has increased significantly by 4 percentage points over the past three months, while their satisfaction with the PLA Hong Kong Garrison has increased significantly by 5 percentage points. The net popularity of the two forces now stands at positive 54 and 59 percentage points respectively. The dissatisfaction rate of the PLA Hong Kong Garrison continues to remain near zero. Programme Director Robert Chung stresses that people's satisfaction with Legco members in general includes those returned by geographical and functional constituencies, it is not a direct measurement of individual Legco members' performance. The sampling error of the survey is between +/-1 and +/-3 percentage points at 95% confidence level, response rate being 65%.

Points to note:

* The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
* The sample size of this survey is 1,019 successful interviews, not 1,019 x 65.2% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
* The maximum sampling error of all percentages is between +/-1 and 3 percentage points at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level".
* When quoting figures of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting the decimal places, because sampling errors do not entail this kind of precision.
* The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

Latest Figures

POP today releases on schedule via the "POP SITE" the latest figures of people's satisfaction with the performance of Legislative Council members in general, the People's Liberation Army Hong Kong Garrison (PLA) and the Hong Kong Police Force (HKPF). As a general practice, all figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in mid-2008. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:

Date of survey	Overall sample size	Response rate	Sampling error of percentages*
9-11/3/2009	1,019	65.2%	+/-3%

* Calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.

Recent figures are summarized as follows:

Date of survey	18-20/3/08	18-20/6/08	17-19/9/08	16-18/12/08	9-11/3/2009	Latest change
Sample base	1,026	1,003	1,003	1,005	1,019	--
Overall response rate	65.7%	70.3%	63.6%	71.7%	65.2%	--
Finding /Sampling error	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding and Error*	--
Satisfaction rate of overall performance of Legco members**	31%#	25%#	26%	26%	21% +/-3%	-5%#
Dissatisfaction rate of overall performance of Legco members**	22%#	23%	29%#	29%	40% +/-3%	+11%#
Satisfaction rate of HKPF**	73%#	70%	70%	62%#	66% +/-3%	+4%#
Dissatisfaction rate of HKPF**	7%	8%	8%	15%#	12% +/-2%	-3%#
Satisfaction rate of PLA**	57%	61%#	58%	56%	61% +/-3%	+5%#
Dissatisfaction rate of PLA**	1%	1%	2%	2%	2% +/-1%	--

* Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
** Collapsed from a 5-point scale.
# Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

Results of survey conducted in mid-March revealed that 21% of the respondents were satisfied with the overall performance of the Legco members, and 40% were dissatisfied. As for the performance of the HKPF, 66% were satisfied while 12% were dissatisfied. Besides, 61% were satisfied with the performance of the PLA stationed in Hong Kong, whereas only 2% were dissatisfied.

Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to "Opinion Daily" as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from December 16 to 18, 2008 while this survey was conducted from March 9 to 11, 2009. In between these two surveys, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

5/3/09	Premier Wen Jiabao presents report on government work.
25/2/09	John Tsang delivers budget speech with short-term strategies of countering financial crisis and preserving job.
17/2/09	HK's unemployment rate soars to 4.6%.
6/2/09	Government weighs six steps to reduce drinking and driving.
3/2/09	New dirvers of private cars or light goods vehicles must carry P plates at their vehicles within one-year probationary period.
2/2/09	Negative equity rises threefold to nearly 11,000 in the last quarter of 2008.
30/1/09	Government announces a net surplus of HK$30.9 billion.
28/1/09	Newspapers discuss the prospects of Hong Kong in the Year of Ox.
24/1/09	Newspapers follow up the car crash in Lok Ma Chau.
15/1/09	Chief Executive Donald Tsang Yam-kuen puts off the public consultation on electoral reforms for 2012 till the 4th quarter this year.
9/1/09	The Monetary Authority defended the city's financial regulatory system.
8/1/09	The government plans to relax the limits on teaching in English.
2/1/09	The government announces several modifications on the banning of idling engines.
31/12/08	Many newspapers report and discuss the review and forecast on Hong Kong's development.
30/12/08	Hong Kong stock exchange delays extending a ban on directors selling shares before earnings announcements.
29/12/08	There is a widespread opposition to extend listed company directors blackout period.
24/12/08	Yuan will be used in transactions for companies in HK and Macau with trade partners in Guangdong and the Yangtze River Delta as part of a pilot project.
19/12/08	The Central Government will implement 14 measures to help the city's economy.

Commentary

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "Our survey shows that people's dissatisfaction with the performance of Legco members has surged 11 percentage points over the past three months, now reaching a record high since January 2005. Legco's net popularity now stands at negative 19 percentage points, which is 7 negative points more than that of HKSARG over the same period. (Note: The figures were released two days ago.) As for the two disciplinary forces, people's satisfaction with the Hong Kong Police Force has increased significantly by 4 percentage points over the past three months, while their satisfaction with the PLA Hong Kong Garrison has increased significantly by 5 percentage points. The net popularity of the two forces now stands at positive 54 and 59 percentage points respectively. The dissatisfaction rate of the PLA Hong Kong Garrison continues to remain near zero. As for the reasons affecting the ups and downs of these figures, we leave it to our readers to form their own judgment using detailed records displayed in our 'Opinion Daily'. It should be noted, however, that people's satisfaction with Legco members in general includes those returned by geographical as well as functional constituencies. It is not a direct measurement of individual Legco members' performance."

Next Release (Tentative)

March 31, 2009 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Budget follow-up survey
April 2, 2009 (Thursday) 1pm to 2pm: Ratings of top 10 political figures in Mainland China and Taiwan