HKU POP SITE releases the latest popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang and the HKSAR GovernmentBack

Press Release on March 24, 2009

Abstract

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) of the University of Hong Kong interviewed 1,019 Hong Kong people between 9 and 11 March by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. The survey finds that the popularity of CE Donald Tsang has not changed much, while that of SAR Government has dropped significantly compared to a month ago. Dissatisfaction rate has climbed again, giving a net popularity figure of negative 12 percentage points. As for the five specific policy areas, compared to 3 months ago, dissatisfaction has increased across the board. Amongst them, negative satisfaction over economic prosperity and pace of democracy registered the biggest increase. The dissatisfaction rates for both items now stand at record high since January 2005. The ranked order of people's satisfaction across the five policy areas is: relationship with the Central Government, protection of human rights, developing democracy, maintaining economic prosperity and then improving people's livelihood. Three of these five areas have negative rates, so the situation is far from ideal. The sampling error of all percentages is between +/-2 to +/-3 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figure is +/-1.2 marks. The response rate of the survey is 65%.

Points to note:

* The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
* The sample size of this survey is 1,019 successful interviews, not 1,019 x 65.2% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
* The maximum sampling error of all percentages is between +/-2 to 3 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figure is +/-1.2. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.2 and sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level".
* When quoting percentages of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used, in order to match the precision level of the figures.
* The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

Latest Figures

POP today releases on schedule via the "POP SITE" the latest popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang and the HKSAR Government. As a general practice, all figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in mid-2008. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:

Date of survey	Overall sample size	Response rate	Sampling error of percentages*
9-11/3/2009	1,019	65.2%	+/-3%

* Calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Questions using only sub-samples would have bigger sample error. Sampling errors of ratings are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.

Recent popularity figures of Donald Tsang and people's satisfaction of the overall performance of the HKSAR Government are summarized as follows:

Date of survey	2-4/2/09	16-18/2/09	25/2/09	2-3/3/09	9-11/3/09*	Latest change
Sample base	1,010	1,001	1,015^	1,006	1,019	--
Overall response rate	73.7%	64.5%	67.7%	66.1%	65.2%	--
Rating of CE Donald Tsang	54.9#	54.4	53.6	51.6#	52.4 +/-1.2	+0.8
Vote of confidence in CE Donald Tsang	42%	41%	42%	42%	44% +/-3%	+2%
Vote of no confidence in CE Donald Tsang	39%	37%	39%	39%	41% +/-3%	+2%
Satisfaction rate of SARG performance**	--	27%	--	--	24 % +/-3%	-3%
Dissatisfaction rate of SARG performance**	--	30%#	--	--	36% +/-3%	+6%#

* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-1.2, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
** Collapsed from a 5-point scale.
^ These questions only use sub-samples of the survey concerned. The sub-sample sizes of questions on CE's support rating and hypothetical voting were 687 and 671 respectively.
# Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

The latest survey conducted in mid-March showed that, CE Donald Tsang scored 52.4 marks, and 44% supported him as the Chief Executive while 41% opposed. Regarding people's appraisal of the overall performance of the HKSAR Government, the latest figures revealed that 24% were satisfied, whereas 36% were dissatisfied. Recent figures on people's appraisal of the five specific policy areas of the HKSAR Government are tabulated as follows:

Date of survey	18-20/3/08	18-20/6/08	17-19/9/08	16-18/12/08	9-11/3/09*	Latest change
Sample base	1,026	1,003	1,003	1,005	1,019	--
Overall response rate	65.7%	70.3%	63.6%	71.7%	65.2%	--
Relation with the Central Government: Satisfaction rate**	64%#	65%	55%#	58%	58% +/-3%	--
Relation with the Central Government: Dissatisfaction rate**	8%#	10%	14%#	12%	13% +/-2%	+1%
Protecting human rights and freedom: Satisfaction rate**	49%	43%#	45%	46%	45% +/-3%	-1%
Protecting human rights and freedom: Dissatisfaction rate**	18%	23%#	22%	21%	23% +/-3%	+2%
Pace of democratic development: Satisfaction rate**	37%	32%#	30%	31%	32% +/-3%	+1%
Pace of democratic development: Dissatisfaction rate**	28%#	33%#	35%	32%	36% +/-3%	+4%#
Maintaining economic prosperity: Satisfaction rate**	57%	42%#	32%#	25%#	24% +/-3%	-1%
Maintaining economic prosperity: Dissatisfaction rate**	13%#	22%#	32%#	37%#	42% +/-3%	+5%#
Improving people's livelihood: Satisfaction rate**	39%#	28%#	24%#	25%	23% +/-3%	-2%
Improving people's livelihood: Dissatisfaction rate**	26%#	36%#	41%#	43%	45% +/-3%	+2%

* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
** Collapsed from a 5-point scale.
# Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

Of the 5 specific policy areas, people were most satisfied with the government's handling of its relation with the Central Government, with a satisfaction percentage of 58%. The government's performance in protecting human rights followed, attaining a satisfaction percentage of 45%. Finally, a respective of 32%, 24% and 23% of the respondents were satisfied with the government's performance in developing democracy, maintaining economic prosperity as well as improving people's livelihood.

Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to "Opinion Daily" as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, using the previous survey as a reference point for comparison, our "Opinion Daily" for this release starts on December 17, 2008, because the previous survey of some items was conducted from December 16 to 18, 2008 while this survey was conducted from March 9 to 11, 2009. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

10/3/09	HSBC shares bounce back to HK$37.60.
9/3/09	HSBC shares slid 24% to close at HK$33.
2/3/09	HSBC seeks HK$140b in new funds.
25/2/09	John Tsang delivers budget speech with short-term strategies of countering financial crisis and preserving job.
19/2/09	HK millionaires suffer great wealth loss due to economic turmoil.
17/2/09	HK's unemployment rate soars to 4.6%.
12/2/09	ATV laid off 207 employees.
9/2/09	PCCW contractors set for half-day strike against cuts in wages.
6/2/09	Government weighs six steps to reduce drinking and driving.
5/2/09	Hong Kong tycoons hit hard as riches dwindle in financial crisis.
4/2/09	PCCW's privatisation is approved.
2/2/09	Negative equity rises threefold to nearly 11,000 in the last quarter of 2008.
30/1/09	Government announces a net surplus of HK$30.9 billion.
21/1/09	Joseph Yam warns the "second wave'' of the financial tsunami is looming.
15/1/09	Chief Executive Donald Tsang Yam-kuen puts off the public consultation on electoral reforms for 2012 till the 4th quarter this year.
9/1/09	The Monetary Authority defended the city's financial regulatory system.
8/1/09	The government plans to relax the limits on teaching in English.
2/1/09	The government announces several modifications on the banning of idling engines.
27/12/08	Workers' bonus protest delays dozens of flights.
18/12/08	CSSA Scheme is being misapplied.
17/12/08	Federal Reserve cut benchmark interest rate, HK banks refuse to follow.

Commentary

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "The popularity of CE Donald Tsang has not changed much, while that of SAR Government has dropped significantly compared to a month ago. Dissatisfaction rate has climbed again, giving a net popularity figure of negative 12 percentage points. As for the five specific policy areas, compared to 3 months ago, dissatisfaction has increased across the board. Amongst them, negative satisfaction over economic prosperity and pace of democracy registered the biggest increase. The dissatisfaction rates for both items now stand at record high since January 2005. The ranked order of people's satisfaction across the five policy areas is: relationship with the Central Government, protection of human rights, developing democracy, maintaining economic prosperity and then improving people's livelihood. Three of these five areas have negative rates, so the situation is far from ideal. As for the reasons affecting the ups and downs of these figures, we leave it to our readers to form their own judgment using detailed records displayed in our 'Opinion Daily'.

Next Release (Tentative)

March 26, 2009 (Thursday) 1pm to 2pm: People's satisfaction with Legco members, the Hong Kong Police Force and the PLA Hong Kong Garrisony

March 31, 2009 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Budget follow-up survey