HKU POP SITE releases the latestfindings of people's opinions towards Taiwan issues, Tibet issues and their appraisal of past Chinese leadersBack

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Press Release on March 17, 2009

| Abstract | Latest Figures | Opinion Daily | Commentary | Next Release (Tentative) |
| Detailed Findings (Opinion on Independence of Taiwan / Confidence in Cross-strait Reunification) |
| Detailed Findings (Opinion on Applicability of "One Country, Two Systems" to Taiwan) |
| Detailed Findings (Opinion on Taiwan's Rejoining the United Nations / Tibet Issues) |
| Detailed Findings (Merits and Faults of Past Chinese Leaders) |

Abstract

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong interviewed 1,019 Hong Kong people between 9 and 11 March by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. The survey finds that compared to three months ago, Hong Kong people's opinion towards the independence of Taiwan and Tibet, and Taiwan rejoining the United Nations has not changed much, but their confidence in reunification across the strait has increased significantly by 7 percentage points, reaching a 3-year high. People's opposition to the independence of Taiwan and Tibet remains high, at almost 80%, while their confidence in reunification across the strait and the applicability of "one country, two systems" to Taiwan remains positive, at 60% or more. About half opposes to Taiwan rejoining the United Nations, which is lower than that opposing the independence of Taiwan. This shows that some people are quite sympathetic to Taiwan's quest for more international space. On the other hand, people's appraisal of the merits and faults of past Chinese leaders Deng Xiaoping, Zhao Ziyang and Yang Shangkun has also not changed much over the past six months. The sampling error of all percentages released today is between +/-1 to 3 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the response rate of the survey is 65%.

Points to note:

* The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
* The sample size of this survey is 1,019 successful interviews, not 1,019 x 65.2% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
* The maximum sampling error of all percentages is below +/-1 to 3 percentage points at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level".
* When quoting percentages of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places in order to match the precision level of the figures.
* The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

Latest Figures

POP today releases via the POP Site the latest figures of people's opinions towards Taiwan, Tibet issues and their appraisal of past Chinese leaders. All the figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2007 year-end. Herewith the contact information for the survey:

Date of survey	Sample base	Overall response rate	Sampling error of percentages*
9-11/3/2009	1,019	65.2%	+/-3%

* Calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.

Recent figures of people's opinions towards Taiwan and Tibet issues are summarized as follows:

Date of survey	12-14/3/08	11-13/6/08	10-12/9/08	9-12/12/08	9-11/3/09*	Latest change
Sample base	1,017	1,012	1,006	1,016	1,019	--
Overall response rate	65.8%	67.4%	62.2%	69.3%	65.2%	--
Taiwan independence: Opposition rate	80%	81%	79%	79%	79% +/-3%	--
Taiwan independence: Support rate	12%	11%	11%	12%	13% +/-2%	+1%
Tibet independence: Opposition rate	71%	82%#	80%	78%	77% +/-3%	-1%
Tibet independence: Support rate	11%#	7%#	7%	9%	10% +/-2%	+1%
Confidence in cross-strait reunification	56%#	59%	59%	53%#	60% +/-3%	+7%#
No-confidence in cross-strait reunification	33%#	31%	29%	35%#	31% +/-3%	-4%#
Taiwan rejoining the United Nations: Opposition rate	58%#	46%#	49%	47%	48% +/-3%	+1%
Taiwan rejoining the United Nations: Support rate	25%#	37%#	33%#	35%	37% +/-3%	+2%
Believed "one country, two systems" was applicable to Taiwan	61%#	60%	59%	58%	61% +/-3%	+3%
Believed "one country, two systems" was not applicable to Taiwan	27%#	29%	29%	29%	30% +/-3%	+1%

* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
# Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

Results obtained in mid-March revealed that 79% of Hong Kong people interviewed opposed the independence of Taiwan whereas only 13% showed support. Meanwhile, 77% objected Tibet becoming independent whilst only 10% held a positive view. Besides, 60% were confident in the ultimate reunification across the strait whilst 31% expressed no confidence. Moreover, 48% opposed Taiwan rejoining the United Nations, 37% supported it. As for the applicability of "one country, two systems" to Taiwan, 61% gave a positive view while 30% gave a negative answer.

As for respondents' appraisals of the merits and faults of past Chinese leaders, POP has been tracking people's appraisal of these leaders since 1995, but our series on Mao Zedong, Zhou Enlai and Chiang Kai Shek stopped in 2003, while that on more recently deceased leaders Zhao Ziyang, Yang Shangkun and Deng Xiaoping continued. The most recent results are summarized as follows:

Date of survey	13-16/3/07	4-7/9/07	12-14/3/08	10-12/9/08	9-11/3/09*	Latest change
Sample base	1,036	1,025	1,017	1,006	1,019	--
Overall response rate	61.2%	66.0%	65.8%	62.2%	65.2%	--
Deng Xiaoping had accrued more merits	81%	82%	77%#	80%	83% +/-2%	+3%#
Deng Xiaoping had accrued more faults	2%	3%	3%	3%	3% +/-1%	--
Zhao Ziyang had accrued more merits	58%	59%	48%#	51%	52% +/-3%	+1%
Zhao Ziyang had accrued more faults	3%	3%	4%	3%	3 % +/-1%	--
Yang Shangkun had accrued more merits	17%	21%#	14%#	17%#	16 % +/-2%	-1%
Yang Shangkun had accrued more faults	18%	20%	16%#	15%	17% +/-2%	+2%

Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to "Opinion Daily" as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, using the previous survey as a reference point for comparison, our "Opinion Daily" for this release starts on October 29, 2008, because the previous survey of some items was conducted from September 10 to 12, 2008 while this survey was conducted from March 9 to 11, 2009. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

5/3/09	Premier Wen Jiabao presents report on government work.
28/2/09	Wen Jiabao debutes online chat with netizens.
10/2/09	Chen's wife admits forgery, laundering.
11/1/09	Vice President Xi Jinping calls on the people of Macau to strengthen their resolve and find solutions to the hardships facing the region.
10/1/09	Vice-President Xi Jinping urges Macau to diversify its economy to cope with the financial crisis.
31/12/08	President Hu Jintao addresses 6 points on political and military co-operation with Taiwan.
21/12/08	1) Caritas Hospital defends clerk for the deadly delay. 2) Beijing helps Taipei tackle financial crisis.
12/12/08	Chen Shui-bien charged with corruption facing a maximum sentence of life imprisonment.
11/11/08	Former Taiwanese president Chen Shui-bian is in custody for money-laundering.
6/11/08	The meeting between Taiwan's leader Ma Ying-jeou and Chen Yunlin lasts for 8 minutes.
4/11/08	ARATS and SEF officials sign four agreements for cross-strait co-operation.
3/11/08	ARATS and SEF officials start negotiations for further co-operation across the straits.
2/11/08	Chen Yunlin visits Taiwan.
29/10/08	Premier Wen Jiabao issued five pledges to help Hong Kong ride out the global financial storm.

Commentary

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "Compared to three months ago, Hong Kong people's opinion towards the independence of Taiwan and Tibet, and Taiwan rejoining the United Nations has not changed much, but their confidence in reunification across the strait has increased significantly by 7 percentage points, reaching a 3-year high. People's opposition to the independence of Taiwan and Tibet remains high, at almost 80%, while their confidence in reunification across the strait and the applicability of 'one country, two systems' to Taiwan remains positive, at 60% or more. About half opposes to Taiwan rejoining the United Nations, which is lower than that opposing the independence of Taiwan. This shows that some people are quite sympathetic to Taiwan's quest for more international space. On the other hand, people's appraisal of the merits and faults of past Chinese leaders Deng Xiaoping, Zhao Ziyang and Yang Shangkun has also not changed much over the past six months. As for the reasons affecting the ups and downs of different figures, readers are free to form their own judgment using the detailed records displayed in our 'Opinion Daily'."

Next Release (Tentative)

March 24, 2009 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Popularity figures of CE and the HKSAR Government