HKU POP SITE releases popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang, Secretaries of Departments and Directors of Bureaux under the accountability systemBack
| Press Release on March 10, 2009 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Abstract | Latest Figures | Opinion Daily | Commentary | Commentary | Next Release (Tentative) | | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Abstract The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong interviewed 1,006 Hong Kong people between 2 and 3 March by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. The survey finds that the popularity of FS John Tsang continues to drop after he delivered his second Budget Speech. His support rating has decreased by almost 8 marks in total to a record low since he became FS, while his approval rate has plunged 12 percentage points in total to the level registered in February 2008, obviously due to the public's negative reaction to his Budget Speech. Probably because of the Budget effect and the volatile stock market, the support ratings of CE Donald Tsang, CS Henry Tang and SJ Wong Yan-lung have all dropped significantly. Wong's rating is now at a record low since he took up the post of Secretary for Justice. The approval rates of most of the Directors have dropped. Those with the decrements beyond sampling errors include Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan and Secretary for Education Michael Suen. Their approval rates have gone down 7 and 5 percentage points respectively. The two Directors now have negative popularity, meaning that their disapproval rates are higher than their approval rates, both at -3 percentage points. According to the benchmarks set by us quite some time ago, no official now falls under the category of 「'ideal」 performance. Ambrose Lee, Wong Yan-lung and Matthew Cheung can be labeled as 「successful」, Carrie Lam, Henry Tang, Donald Tsang, York Chow, John Tsang, Michael Suen, Stephen Lam and Tsang Tak-sing can be labeled as 「mediocre」, and Eva Cheng, Denise Yue, Edward Yau, Ceajer Chan and Rita Lau can be labeled as 「inconspicuous」. No official falls under the categories of 「depressing」 or 「disastrous」. The sampling error of all approval and disapproval rates is between +/-2 and 4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures needs another calculation. The response rate of the survey is 66%. Points to note: * The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there. * The sample size of this survey is 1,006 successful interviews, not 1,006 x 66.1% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake. * The maximum sampling error of all approval and disapproval rates is between +/-2 and 4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures needs another calculation. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-1.2 and sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level". * When quoting percentages of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used, in order to match the precision level of the figures. * The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Latest Figures POP today releases on schedule via the POP Site the latest figures of CE Donald Tsang, Secretaries of Departments and Directors of Bureaux under the accountability system. As a general practice, all figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in mid-2008. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:
As different questions involve different sub-samples, the sample errors will vary accordingly. The table below briefly shows the relationship between sample size and maximum sampling errors for the readers to capture the corresponding changes:
"Maximum sampling errors" occur when survey figures are close to 50%. If the figures are close to 0% or 100%, the sampling error will diminish accordingly. The sampling errors of ratings, however, will depend on the distribution of the raw figures. Since January 2007, POP lists out the sampling errors of all survey figures in detail and explain them in due course. Recent popularity figures of Donald Tsang are summarized as follows:
^ These questions only use sub-samples of the survey concerned. The sub-sample sizes of questions on CE's support rating and hypothetical voting were 543 and 572 respectively. # Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful. Figures on the latest popularity ratings of the three Secretaries of Departments under the accountability system are summarized below:
** "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-1.2, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site. ^ These questions only use sub-samples of the survey concerned. The sub-sample sizes of questions on John Tsang's support rating and hypothetical voting were 591 and 590 respectively. Regarding the change of John Tsang's popularity figures, one can compare them per poll, or with other officials' figures after synchronizing them to the same cycle. # Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful. Figures on the latest popularity ratings of Directors of Bureaux under the accountability system are summarized below:
** "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site. # Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful. ^ The approval rates of Secretary or Environment Edward Yau Tang-wah and Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Stephen Lam are 29.9% and 29.8% respectively. The latest survey showed that, CE Donald Tsang scored 51.6 marks, and 42% supported him as the Chief Executive. Meanwhile, the corresponding ratings of CS Henry Tang Ying-yen, FS John Tsang Chun-wah and SJ Wong Yan-lung were 53.4, 49.2 and 58.8 marks, and 43%, 35% and 57% would vote for their reappointment correspondingly. As for the Directors of Bureaux, results revealed that the top approval rate fell to Secretary for Security Ambrose Lee Siu-kwong, attaining 63%. Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung Kin-chung and Secretary for Development Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor occupied the 2nd and 3rd ranks with respective support rates of 52% and 47%. Secretary for Food and Health York Chow Yat-ngok, Secretary for Transport and Housing Eva Cheng Yu-wah, Secretary for the Civil Service Denise Yue Chung-yee and Secretary for Education Michael Suen Ming-yeung occupied the 4th to 7th ranks with respective support rates of 38%, 34%, 33% and 31%. Secretary for Environment Edward Yau Tang-wah and Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Stephen Lam Sui-lung shared the 8th rank as both gained 30% vote of confidence from the public. Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing, Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan Ka-keung and Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Rita Lau Ng Wai-lan occupied the 10th to 12th ranks with respective support rates of 26%, 23% and 22%. In other words, only Ambrose Lee Siu-kwong and Matthew Cheung Kin-chung scored approval rates of over 50% among all Directors of Bureaux. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Opinion Daily In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to "Opinion Daily" as soon as they are verified by POP. For the polling items covered in this press release, using the previous survey as a reference point for comparison, our "Opinion Daily" for this release starts on February 2, 2009, because the previous survey of some items was conducted from February 2 to 4, 2009 while this survey was conducted from March 2 to 3, 2009. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.
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| Commentary Note: The following commentary was written by Director of POP Robert Chung. Our latest survey shows that the popularity of FS John Tsang continues to drop after he delivered his second Budget Speech. His support rating has decreased by almost 8 marks in total to a record low since he became FS, while his approval rate has plunged 12 percentage points in total to the level registered in February 2008, obviously due to the public's negative reaction to his Budget Speech. Probably because of the Budget effect and the volatile stock market, the support ratings of CE Donald Tsang, CS Henry Tang and SJ Wong Yan-lung have all dropped significantly. Wong's rating is now at a record low since he took up the post of Secretary for Justice. As for the Directors of Bureaux, compared to a month ago, the approval rates of most of the Directors have dropped. Those with the decrements beyond sampling errors include Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan and Secretary for Education Michael Suen. Their approval rates have gone down 7 and 5 percentage points respectively. The two Directors now have negative popularity, meaning that their disapproval rates are higher than their approval rates, both at -3 percentage points. According to the benchmarks set by us quite some time ago, no official now falls under the category of "'ideal" performance. Ambrose Lee, Wong Yan-lung and Matthew Cheung can be labeled as "successful", Carrie Lam, Henry Tang, Donald Tsang, York Chow, John Tsang, Michael Suen, Stephen Lam and Tsang Tak-sing can be labeled as "mediocre", and Eva Cheng, Denise Yue, Edward Yau, Ceajer Chan and Rita Lau can be labeled as "inconspicuous". No official falls under the categories of "depressing" or "disastrous". As for the reasons affecting the popularity change of these officials, readers can make their own judgment using detailed records shown in our "Opinion Daily" feature page. The following table summarizes the grading of the principal officials for readers' easy reference:
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