HKU POP SITE releases 6 latest trust and confidence indicatorsBack

Press Release on March 5, 2009

| Abstract | Latest Figures | Opinion Daily | Commentary | Next Release (Tentative) |
| Detailed Findings (People's Trust in the HKSAR Government/People's Trust in the Taiwan Government) |
| Detailed Findings (People's Trust in the Beijing Central Government) |
| Detailed Findings (People's Confidence in HK's Future/People's Confidence in China's Future) |
| Detailed Findings (People's Confidence in "One Country, Two Systems") |

Abstract

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong interviewed 1,020 Hong Kong people between 23 and 26 February by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. Our survey finds that compared to two months ago, most of the 6 trust and confidence indicators have dropped. Amongst them, 3 have gone down significantly, including people's trust in the central government, people's confidence in the future of China and people's trust in the Taiwan government. In our latest survey, people's trust in the central government is still 7 percentage points higher than that of the local government. As for people's confidence in the future, pessimism in the future of Hong Kong and China has increased significantly, but positive confidence is still high. Together with people's confidence in "one country, two systems", the 3 confidence indicators have remained high at about 70% to 85%. The sampling error of all percentages is between +/-2 to 3 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the response rate of the survey is 67%.

Points to note:

* The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
* The sample size of this survey is 1,020 successful interviews, not 1,020 x 66.5% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
* The maximum sampling error of all percentages is below +/-2 to 3 percentage points at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level".
* When quoting percentages of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places in order to match the precision level of the figures.
* The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

Latest Figures

POP today releases on schedule via the POP Site the latest findings on people's trust in the HKSAR, Beijing Central and Taiwan Governments, their confidence in Hong Kong's future, China's future and "one country, two systems". As a general practice, all figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in mid-2008. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:

Date of survey	Overall sample size	Response rate	Sampling error of percentages*
23-26/2/2009	1,020	66.5%	+/-3%

* Calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.

Recent popularity figures of SAR, Central and Taiwan Governments, and people's confidence in the future are summarized below:

Date of survey	18-20/6/08	25-26/8/08	27-29/10/08	23-29/12/08	23-26/2/2009*	Latest Change
Sample base	1,003	1,065	1,015	1,022	1,020	--
Overall response rate	70.3%	70.3%	70.3%	72.8%	66.5%	--
Trust in HKSAR Government**	62%	45%#	41%#	42%	43% +/-3%	+1%
Distrust in HKSAR Government**	12%#	16%#	21%#	19%	19% +/-2%	--
Trust in Beijing Government**	58%	49%#	54%#	56%	50% +/-3%	-6%#
Distrust in Beijing Government**	12%	14%	15%	14%	16% +/-2%	+2%
Trust in Taiwan Government**	23%#	12%#	15%#	14%	11% +/-2%	-3%#
Distrust in Taiwan Government**	20%#	40%#	46%#	45%	44% +/-3%	-1%
Confidence in HK's future	73%#	74%	67%#	69%	69% +/-3%	--
No-confidence in HK's future	19%#	20%	25%#	24%	28% +/-3%	+4%#
Confidence in China's future	88%	89%	84%#	91%#	87% +/-2%	-4%#
No-confidence in China's future	8%	7%	11%#	6%#	9% +/-2%	+3%#
Confidence in "one country, two systems"	71%#	74%	69%#	73%#	72% +/-3%	-1%
No-confidence in "one country, two systems"	21%#	20%	25%#	21%#	22% +/-3%	+1%

* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
** Collapsed from a 5-point scale.
# Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

Survey conducted in late-February revealed that 43% of the respondents trusted the HKSAR Government, 50% trusted the Beijing Central Government, and 11% trusted the Taiwan Government. On the other hand, 69% of the respondents had confidence in Hong Kong's future and 87% had confidence in China's future, while 72% of the respondents were confident in "one country, two systems".

Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to "Opinion Daily" as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from December 23 to 29, 2008 while this survey was conducted from February 23 to 26, 2009. In between these two surveys, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

25/2/09	John Tsang delivers budget speech with short-term strategies of countering financial crisis and preserving job.
21/2/09	China and the US agree on new era of ties.
17/2/09	HK's unemployment rate soars to 4.6%.
2/2/09	Negative equity rises threefold to nearly 11,000 in the last quarter of 2008.
30/1/09	Government announces a net surplus of HK$30.9 billion.
21/1/09	Joseph Yam warns the "second wave'' of the financial tsunami is looming.
15/1/09	Chief Executive Donald Tsang Yam-kuen puts off the public consultation on electoral reforms for 2012 till the 4th quarter this year.
11/1/09	Vice President Xi Jinping calls on the people of Macau to strengthen their resolve and find solutions to the hardships facing the region.
10/1/09	Vice-President Xi Jinping urges Macau to diversify its economy to cope with the financial crisis.
9/1/09	The Monetary Authority defended the city's financial regulatory system.
31/12/08	President Hu Jintao addresses 6 points on political and military co-operation with Taiwan.

Commentary

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "Compared to two months ago, most of the 6 trust and confidence indicators have dropped. Amongst them, 3 have gone down significantly, including people's trust in the central government, people's confidence in the future of China and people's trust in the Taiwan government. In our latest survey, people's trust in the central government is still 7 percentage points higher than that of the local government. As for people's confidence in the future, pessimism in the future of Hong Kong and China has increased significantly, but positive confidence is still high. Together with people's confidence in "one country, two systems", the 3 confidence indicators have remained high at about 70% to 85%. As for the reasons affecting the ups and downs of these figures, readers are welcome to make their own judgment using the detailed records displayed in our 'Opinion Daily'."

Next Release (Tentative)

March 10, 2009 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Popularity of CE, Secretaries and Directors