HKU POP SITE releases the latest ratings of the top 10 political groupsBack

The Public Opinion Programme at the University of Hong Kong conducted a double stage survey on the ranking of the top 10 political groups this month, by means of random telephone surveys conducted by real interviewers. The surveys find that compared to 3 months ago, the ratings of LP and DAB have increased significantly by 2.5 marks and 1.9 marks respectively. Apart from AFA, the ratings of other political groups have gone down, but none of them have dropped beyond sampling errors. In terms of relative rankings, FTU and HKCTU continue to occupy the first and second places, while DAB advances three positions to become 3rd. CP drops one position and shares the 4th position with ADPL. DP drops one position to become 6th. Other political groups including Frontier which is still a legal entity, LSD, LP and AFA remain at their previous positions of 7th to 10th. The sampling errors of the ratings registered fall between +/-1.2 and 1.8 while the response rate of the rating survey is 65%.

Points to note:

* The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
* The sample size of the first stage naming survey is 1,011 successful interviews, not 1,011 x 67.0% response rate, while the sample size of the second stage rating survey is 1,001 successful interviews, not 1,001 x 64.5% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-1.8 at 95% confidence level" when quoting the rating figures. In view of the error margins, one decimal place can be used when quoting these rating figures.
* The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

POP today releases on schedule via the POP Site the latest ratings of the top 10 political groups. As a general practice, all the figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in mid-2008. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:

Date of survey	Overall sample size	Response rate	Sampling error of percentages/ratings*
10-12/2/09 (First stage naming survey)	1,011	67.0%	+/-3%
16-18/2/09 (Second stage rating survey)	1,001	64.5%	+/-1.8

* Calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.

The research design of our "Top ten political groups" has been explained in detail under "Survey Method" in our corresponding web page. The top political groups listed in our latest survey were all those who obtained highest unprompted mentions in our first stage naming survey conducted from February 10 to 12, 2009. In that survey, respondents could name, unaided, up to 10 political groups whom they knew best. Democratic Alliance for Betterment and Progress of Hong Kong (DAB), Democratic Party (DP), Liberal Party (LP), Civic Party (CP) and League of Social Democrats (LSD) were mentioned most frequently. Please refer to the relevant table in our website for the rest of the list. The 12 most frequently mentioned political groups then entered into the second stage rating survey. During that second stage survey conducted from February 16 to 18, 2009, respondents were asked to rate each political group in turn using a 0-100 scale. 0 indicates absolutely no support, 100 indicates absolute support, and 50 means half-half. After calculation, the bottom 2 political groups in terms of recognition rate were dropped, leaving behind the top 10. In case any group failed to reach the 50% benchmark recognition rate, it would also be dropped. It should, however, be noted that because political groups are not yet legal entities in Hong Kong, such definitions are rather vague, and so-called political groups are constantly evolving. As a result, strange names may appear in the list of groups mentioned by respondents in Stage One surveys. In order to avoid personal bias, our research team will eliminate groups which fall outside the popular definition only after the first stage of the survey. In the latest survey, our research team considered whether we should eliminate the Frontier from the list. However, since Frontier is still a legal entity, it has remained on our list. To facilitate readers follow our research process step by step, the POP Site has already displayed the results of all naming surveys conducted since July 1998. The latest ratings of the top 10 political groups, together with the previous ratings, are summarized below:

Date of survey	20-22/5/08	18-20/8/08	26-30/11/08	16-18/2/09*		Latest change
Sample base	1,023	1,000	1,002	1,001		--
Overall response rate	67.1%	69.6%	67.3%	64.5%		--
Finding /Recognition rate	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Recognition rate
FTU	55.7 [1]#	53.3 [1]#	53.4[1]	52.9 [1] +/-1.2	85.3%	-0.5
HKCTU	52.1 [4]	51.7 [3]	52.3 [2]	51.6 [2] +/-1.2	78.9%	-0.7
DAB	53.6 [2]#	48.5 [5]#	48.5 [6]	50.4 [3] +/-1.4	88.8%	+1.9#
Civic Party	53.1 [3]	52.4 [2]	51.1 [3]	49.7 [4] ^ +/-1.4	77.3%	-1.4
ADPL	51.1 [5]#	51.0 [4]	50.7 [4]	49.7 [4] ^ +/-1.2	69.1%	-1.0
DP	48.7 [7]	47.7 [6]	49.5 [5]#	48.3 [6] +/-1.2	89.2%	-1.2
Frontier	45.9 [9]	46.2 [8]	46.6 [7]	46.5 [7] +/-1.4	74.3%	-0.1
LSD	44.6 [**]	44.6 [**]	45.4 [8]	43.8 [8] +/-1.8	70.0%	-1.6
LP	49.8 [6]	47.4 [7]#	41.0 [9]#	43.5 [9] +/-1.2	83.7%	+2.5#
AFA	35.7 [10]	35.4 [10]	36.5 [10]	36.5 [10] +/-1.6	70.6%	--
NWS	52.6 [**]#	52.0 [**]	51.0 [**]	51.1 [**] +/-1.6	63.0%	+0.1
CF	--	--	44.0 [**]	45.5 [**] +/-1.8	42.6%	+1.5
HKASPDMC	46.4 [8]	44.0 [9]	--	--	--	--

* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-1.8 at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
** Ratings with recognition rates not reaching top 10 in either stage of survey are not available.
[ ] Number in square brackets indicates rankings.
# Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.
^ The ratings of Civic Party and ADPL were 49.72 and 49.67 respectively.

Findings obtained in mid-February showed that, the best-known political group was the Hong Kong Federation of Trade Unions (FTU) which attained 52.9 marks. Hong Kong Confederation of Trade Unions (HKCTU) and Democratic Alliance for Betterment and Progress of Hong Kong (DAB) ranked 2nd to 3rd, achieving 51.6 and 50.4 marks respectively. Meanwhile, Civic Party (CP) and Hong Kong Association for Democracy & People's Livelihood (ADPL) shared the 4th rank as both gained 49.7 marks. The 6th to 10th ranks fell to Democratic Party (DP), Frontier, League of Social Democrats (LSD), Liberal Party (LP) and April Fifth Action (AFA), with respective scores of 48.3, 46.5, 43.8, 43.5 and 36.5 marks. The mean score obtained by the top 5 political groups was 50.9 marks. For this latest survey, Neighbourhood and Worker's Service Centre (NWS) and Civil Force (CF) obtained a support rating of 51.1 and 45.5 marks respectively, but they were dropped due to their relatively low recognition rates. The overall ratings ranked according to results obtained over the past 12 months are tabulated as follows:

Date of survey	20-22/5/08	18-20/8/08	26-30/11/08	16-18/2/09	No. of times on top 10	Average rating*	Overall ranking**
FTU	55.7	53.3	53.4	52.9	4	53.8	1
HKCTU	52.1	51.7	52.3	51.6	4	51.9	2
CP	53.1	52.4	51.1	49.7	4	51.6	3
ADPL	51.1	51.0	50.7	49.7	4	50.6	4
DAB	53.6	48.5	48.5	50.4	4	50.3	5
DP	48.7	47.7	49.5	48.3	4	48.5	6
Frontier	45.9	46.2	46.6	46.5	4	46.3	7
LP	49.8	47.4	41.0	43.5	4	45.5	8
AFA	35.7	35.4	36.5	36.5	4	36.0	9
HKASPDMC	46.4	44.0	^	^	2	45.2	10
LSD	^	^	45.4	43.8	2	44.6	11

* "Average rating" is the average of all ratings obtained by political groups over the past 12 months.
** "Overall ranking" is first determined by their number of times on top 10, and then their average ratings.
^ Ratings with recognition rates not reaching top 10 in either stage of survey are not available.

The overall rankings in the past 12 months showed that, the top 9 political groups were all listed for four times. FTU was in the top rank, achieving an average rating of 53.8 marks. HKCTU, CP, ADPL and DAB ranked 2nd to 5th, attaining 51.9, 51.6, 50.6 and 50.3 marks respectively. Meanwhile, the 6th to 9th ranks fell to DP, Frontier, LP and AFA with respective scores of 48.5, 46.3, 45.5 and 36.0. HKASPDMC and LSD was listed for two times and ranked 10th to 11th, attaining 45.2 and 44.6 marks.

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to "Opinion Daily" as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from November 26 to 30, 2008 while this survey was conducted from February 16 to 18, 2009. In between these two surveys, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

17/2/09	HK's unemployment rate soars to 4.6%.
12/2/09	ATV laid off 207 employees.
9/2/09	PCCW contractors set for half-day strike against cuts in wages.
6/2/09	Government weighs six steps to reduce drinking and driving.
5/2/09	Hong Kong tycoons hit hard as riches dwindle in financial crisis.
4/2/09	PCCW's privatisation is approved.
3/2/09	New dirvers of private cars or light goods vehicles must carry P plates at their vehicles within one-year probationary period.
2/2/09	Negative equity rises threefold to nearly 11,000 in the last quarter of 2008.
30/1/09	Government announces a net surplus of HK$30.9 billion.
27/1/09	Lau Wong-fat draws a fortune stick that predicts worst luck for Hong Kong.
15/1/09	Chief Executive Donald Tsang Yam-kuen puts off the public consultation on electoral reforms for 2012 till the 4th quarter this year.
9/1/09	The Monetary Authority defended the city's financial regulatory system.
8/1/09	The government plans to relax the limits on teaching in English.
6/1/09	The Pamela Youde Nethersole Eastern Hospital loses the body of a dead baby.
5/1/09	Caritas Medical Centre submits an investigation report on the death of a man who collapsed at its doorsteps.
2/1/09	The government announces several modifications on the banning of idling engines.
27/12/08	Workers' bonus protest delays dozens of flights.
22/12/08	Hospital Authority apologizes for the failure to rescue a dying patient on the doorstep of Caritas Medical Centre.
21/12/08	Caritas Hospital defends clerk for the deadly delay.
8/12/08	Hong Kong SAR government announces a massive rescue package.
3/12/08	Taxi strike against new fare structure blocks highway.
1/12/08	The government arranges charter flights to pick up residents in Thailand.

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "In our latest survey of 'Top 10 Political Groups', compared to 3 months ago, the ratings of LP and DAB have increased significantly by 2.5 marks and 1.9 marks respectively. Apart from AFA, the ratings of other political groups have gone down, but none of them have dropped beyond sampling errors. In terms of relative rankings, FTU and HKCTU continue to occupy the first and second places, while DAB advances three positions to become 3rd. CP drops one position and shares the 4th position with ADPL. DP drops one position to become 6th. Other political groups including Frontier which is still a legal entity, LSD, LP and AFA remain at their previous positions of 7th to 10th. It should be noted, however, that our 'Top 10 Political Groups' only includes groups which are best known to the public, ranked according to their support ratings. Other political groups may well have very high or low support ratings, but because they are relatively less well-known, they are not included in our final list. As to what events have affected the ups and downs of the popularity of these groups, readers can make their own judgment after reading through detailed records placed in our 'Opinion Daily'."

• March 3, 2009 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: second round of Budget survey


• March 5, 2009 (Thursday) 1pm to 2pm: six trust and confidence indicators