HKU POP SITE releases the instant poll results on the BudgetBack
| Press Release on February 26, 2009 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Abstract | Background | Latest Figures | Commentary | Next Release (Tentative) | | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Abstract The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong interviewed 1,015 Hong Kong people last night (25 February) by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. The survey finds that based on those who understand the Budget, our survey finds that people's instant reaction to John Tsang's Second Budget is far from satisfactory, as satisfaction rate plunges 38 percentage points compared to last year, while satisfaction rating drops by almost 16 marks. Across the 12 Budgets after the handover, it only surpasses Antony Leung's Second Budget in 2003. FS John Tsang has obviously failed to boost people's confidence by his Budget. In terms of personal popularity, his support rating and approval rate have both dropped, which is completely different from last year. As for the popularity of CE Donald Tsang, his popularity has remained stable, which is also somewhat different from last year. Whether and how people's reaction will change after knowing more about the Budget will have to be revealed by our next survey. The sampling error of all percentages is between +/-3 and 4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures needs another calculation. The response rate of the survey is 68%. Points to note: * The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there. * The sample size of this survey is 1,015 successful interviews, not 1,015 x 67.7% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake. * The maximum sampling error of all percentages is between +/-3 and 4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures needs another calculation. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-1.6 and sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level". * When quoting percentages of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used, in order to match the precision level of the figures. * The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Background Since 1992, HKUPOP has been conducting Policy Address instant surveys every year. From 1998 onwards, we expanded our instant surveys to cover the Budget Talks. In free and democratic societies, instant surveys are indispensable sources of free information. Combined with appropriate follow-up surveys, and in parallel to expert analyses, they give a multi-dimensional picture of opinion development. They are an important part of a society's interactive development. Starting 2008, we split up previous years' instant survey into two surveys. In our first survey, we measure people's overall appraisal of the Budget, their rating of the Budget, their change in confidence towards Hong Kong's future, and FS's popularity. In our second survey, we focus on people's reactions towards different government proposals, their satisfaction with the government's fiscal policies, and other relevant issues. The instant survey released today is our second release under our new operation. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Latest Figures The findings of the Budget instant poll released by the POP SITE today have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in mid-2008. Herewith the contact information of various surveys:
People's satisfaction figures with this year's Budget are summarized below together with the previous findings:
** Collapsed from a 5-point scale. # Those respondents who said they had not heard of the Budget/ were not clear about the Budget content are excluded from the sub-sample. As the sub-sample is smaller, the sampling error increases correspondingly. After excluding those respondents who said they had not heard of the Budget/ were not clear about the Budget content, this year's instant survey showed that 30% were satisfied with it, 22% were dissatisfied and 43% said "half-half" while the average rating registered for the Budget was 54.8 marks. Because part of the respondents said they had not heard of the Budget/ were not clear about the Budget content during the instant poll, the valid sub-sample of this item was smaller. The sampling error for this question has increased accordingly. The survey also gauged the change of people's confidence towards Hong Kong's future after FS John Tsang has delivered his Budget Talk. Results are as follows:
^ Those respondents who said they had not heard of the Budget are excluded from the sub-sample. As the sub-sample is smaller, the sampling error increases correspondingly. # Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful. Findings showed that excluding those who said they had not heard of the Budget, 21% said their confidence in the future of Hong Kong had increased, 46% opted for "no change", whilst 28% said their confidence had decreased. Changes in the popularity figures of Financial Secretary John Tsang after the announcement of the Budget in both 2008 and 2009 are summarized as follows:
**Starting from 2006, these questions only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned. The sub-sample sizes of questions on FS's support rating and hypothetical voting in 2009 were 591 and 590 respectively while those in 2008 were 529 and 526. # Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful. The instant survey conducted last night showed that, the latest rating of FS John Tsang after his Budget Talk was 54.9 marks, with an approval and disapproval rate of 43% and 15% respectively. Changes in the popularity figures of Chief Executive Donald Tsang after the announcement of the Budget in both 2008 and 2009 are summarized as follows:
**Starting from 2006, these questions only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned. The sub-sample sizes of questions on CE's support rating and hypothetical voting in 2009 were 543 and 572 respectively while those in 2008 were 524 and 523 respectively. # Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful. The instant survey also showed that, the latest rating of CE Donald Tsang after the Budget was 53.6 marks and 42% supported him as the Chief Executive while 39% held an opposite view. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Commentary Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "Based on those who understand the Budget, our survey finds that people's instant reaction to John Tsang's Second Budget is far from satisfactory, as satisfaction rate plunges 38 percentage points compared to last year, while satisfaction rating drops by almost 16 marks. Across the 12 Budgets after the handover, it only surpasses Antony Leung's Second Budget in 2003. FS John Tsang has obviously failed to boost people's confidence by his Budget. In terms of personal popularity, his support rating and approval rate have both dropped, which is completely different from last year. As for the popularity of CE Donald Tsang, his popularity has remained stable, which is also somewhat different from last year. Whether and how people's reaction will change after knowing more about the Budget will have to be revealed by our next survey." | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next Release (Tentative)
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| | Abstract | Background | Latest Figures | Commentary | Next Release (Tentative) | | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
