HKU POP SITE releases the latest popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang and the HKSAR GovernmentBack

Press Release on February 24, 2009

Abstract

The Public Opinion Programme at the University of Hong Kong interviewed 1,001 Hong Kong people between 16-18 February by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. The survey finds that all opinion figures have remained stable, as people wait for the Budget Speech tomorrow. Compared to two weeks ago, both the popularity rating and approval rate of CE Donald Tsang have changed only within sampling errors. Compared to four months ago, people's satisfaction towards his policy direction has also not changed much. As for the popularity of the SAR Government, people's satisfaction rate has remained the same compared to a month ago, while dissatisfaction rate has significantly dropped by 6 percentage points, but it still shows negative popularity. The sampling error of all percentages is between +/-3 and +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of the rating figure is +/-1.2 marks. The response rate of the survey is 65%.

Points to note:

* The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
* The sample size of this survey is 1,001 successful interviews, not 1,001 x 64.5% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
* The sampling error of some of the figures is between +/-3 and +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures needs another calculation. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.2 and sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level".
* When quoting percentages of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used, in order to match the precision level of the figures.
* The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

Latest Figures

POP today releases on schedule via the POP Site the latest popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang and the HKSAR Government. As a general practice, all the figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in mid-2008. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:

Date of survey	Overall sample size	Response rate	Sampling error of percentages*
16-18/2/2009	1,001	64.5%	+/-3%

* Calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Sampling errors of ratings are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.

Recent popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang and people's satisfaction of the overall performance of the HKSAR Government are summarized as follows:

Date of survey	16-18/12/08	2-6/1/09	19-21/1/09	2-4/2/09	16-18/2/09*	Latest change^
Sample base	1,005	1,011	1,011	1,010	1,001	--
Overall response rate	71.7%	67.3%	76.5%	73.7%	64.5%	--
Rating of CE Donald Tsang	52.0#	52.9	53.3	54.9#	54.4 +/-1.2	-0.5
Vote of confidence in CE Donald Tsang	41%	41%	40%	42%	41% +/-3%	-1%
Vote of no confidence in CE Donald Tsang	40%	41%	39%	39%	37% +/-3%	-2%
Satisfaction rate of Tsang's policy direction**	--	--	--	--	28% +/-3%	--
Dissatisfaction rate of Tsang's policy direction**	--	--	--	--	32% +/-3%	--
Satisfaction rate of SARG performance**	23%#	--	27%#	--	27% +/-3%	--
Dissatisfaction rate of SARG performance**	38%#	--	36%	--	30% +/-3%	-6%#

* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of rating +/-1.2, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
** Collapsed from a 5-point scale.
^ The polling cycle for different items varies. Parallel comparison across items should be synchronized. For people's satisfaction with Donald Tsang's policy direction, the last survey was conducted in October 2008 and the positive and negative figures were 25% and 35% back then. In the latest survey, the sub-sample size of this question is 663.
# Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

The latest survey showed that, CE Donald Tsang scored 54.4 marks, and 41% supported him as the Chief Executive while 37% held an opposite view. As for people's satisfaction with Donald Tsang's policy direction, 28% of the respondents showed satisfaction while 32% were not satisfied. Regarding people's appraisal of the overall performance of the HKSAR Government, the latest figures revealed that 27% were satisfied, whereas another 30% were dissatisfied.

Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to "Opinion Daily" as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, using the previous survey as a reference point for comparison, our "Opinion Daily" for this release starts on November 10, 2008, because the previous survey of some items was conducted from October 27 to 29, 2008 while this survey was conducted from February 16 to 18, 2009. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

17/2/09	HK's unemployment rate soars to 4.6%.
6/2/09	Government weighs six steps to reduce drinking and driving.
30/1/09	Government announces a net surplus of HK$30.9 billion.
15/1/09	Chief Executive Donald Tsang Yam-kuen puts off the public consultation on electoral reforms for 2012 till the 4th quarter this year.
8/1/09	The government plans to relax the limits on teaching in English.
2/1/09	The government announces several modifications on the banning of idling engines.
31/12/08	Many newspapers report and discuss the review and forecast on Hong Kong's development.
1/12/08	The government arranges charter flights to pick up residents in Thailand.
18/11/08	The latest HK unemployment rate rises to 3.5%.
14/11/08	HK economy shrinks for a second quarter as global crisis bites.
10/11/08	HKSAR Government announces a HK$10 billion loans special scheme for small and medium-sized enterprises.

Commentary

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "Our latest survey shows that all opinion figures have remained stable, as people wait for the Budget Speech tomorrow. Compared to two weeks ago, both the popularity rating and approval rate of CE Donald Tsang have changed only within sampling errors. Compared to four months ago, people's satisfaction towards his policy direction has also not changed much. As for the popularity of the SAR Government, people's satisfaction rate has remained the same compared to a month ago, while dissatisfaction rate has significantly dropped by 6 percentage points, but it still shows negative popularity. As for the reasons affecting the ups and downs of these figures, we leave it to our readers to form their own judgment using detailed records displayed in our 'Opinion Daily'."

Next Release (Tentative)

February 26, 2009 (Thursday) 1pm to 2pm: Budget instant poll