HKU POP SITE releases the latest popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang and Principal OfficialsBack
| Press Release on February 10, 2009 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Abstract | Latest Figures | Opinion Daily | Commentary | Next Release (Tentative) | | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Abstract The Public Opinion Programme at the University of Hong Kong interviewed 1,010 Hong Kong people between 2-4 February by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. The survey finds that CE Donald Tsang's support rating has increased for four consecutive times, from around 50 marks registered in early December last year to around 55 marks, or about one grade. His net approval rate (or approval rate minus disapproval rate) has also increased from -2 percentage points to +3 percentage points. However, our biannual survey shows that only 30% of the people consider Donald Tsang doing a good job as CE, which is record low since he becomes CE. For the Secretaries of Departments, compared to a month ago, all popularity figures have increased. FS John Tsang records the biggest jump, as his support rating rises 3.5 marks and his approval rate surges 7 percentage points, obviously due to the publicity of his forthcoming Budget Speech. As for the Directors of Bureaux, compared to a month ago, only two officials have registered changes in approval rates beyond sampling errors. They include Secretary for Security Ambrose Lee whose approval rate increased by 8 percentage points, and Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan whose approval rate increased by 5 percentage points. Among all Secretaries and Directors, only Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Stephen Lam has negative popularity, meaning that his disapproval rate is higher than his approval rate. His net popularity now stands at -7 percentage points. According to the benchmarks set by us quite some time ago, no official now falls under the categories of "'ideal" performance. Ambrose Lee, Wong Yan-lung and Matthew Cheung can be labeled as "successful", Carrie Lam, John Tsang, Henry Tang, Donald Tsang, Michael Suen, York Chow, Tsang Tak-sing and Stephen Lam can be labeled as "mediocre", and Eva Cheng, Edward Yau, Denise Yue, Ceajer Chan and Rita Lau can be labeled as "inconspicuous". No official falls under the categories of "depressing" or "disastrous". The sampling error of all approval and disapproval rates is between +/-1 to 4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures needs another calculation. The response rate of the survey is 74%. Points to note: * The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there. * The sample size of this survey is 1,010 successful interviews, not 1,010 x 73.7% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake. * The maximum sampling error of all approval and disapproval rates is between +/-1 to 4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures needs another calculation. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-1.2 and sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level". * When quoting percentages of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used, in order to match the precision level of the figures. * The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Latest Figures POP today releases on schedule via POP SITE the latest popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang and Principal Officials under the accountability system. All the figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in mid-2008. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:
As different questions involve different sub-samples, the sample errors will vary accordingly. The table below briefly shows the relationship between sample size and maximum sampling errors for the readers to capture the corresponding changes:
"Maximum sampling errors" occur when survey figures are close to 50%. If the figures are close to 0% or 100%, the sampling error will diminish accordingly. The sampling errors of ratings, however, will depend on the distribution of the raw figures. Since January 2007, POP lists out the sampling errors of all survey figures in detail and explain them in due course. Recent popularity figures of Donald Tsang are summarized as follows:
** Collapsed from a 5-point scale. ^ The polling cycle for this item is different from the rest. The last survey was conducted in early August 2008 and the positive and negative figures were 32% and 26% back then. # Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful. Figures on the latest popularity ratings of the three Secretaries of Departments under the accountability system are summarized below:
** "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-1.1, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site. # Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful. Figures on the latest popularity ratings of Directors of Bureaux under the accountability system are summarized below:
** "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site. # Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful. ^ The approval rates of Secretary for Education Michael Suen Ming-yeung, Secretary for Transport and Housing Eva Cheng Yu-wah and Secretary for Food and Health York Chow Yat-ngok are 36.15%, 36.06% and 35.80% respectively. ^^ The approval rates of Secretary for the Civil Service Denise Yue Chung-yee and Secretary for Environment Edward Yau Tang-wah are 33.37% and 33.18% respectively. The latest survey showed that, CE Donald Tsang scored 54.9 marks, and 42% supported him as the Chief Executive. By using a 5-point scale, 30% of the respondents thought Tsang was doing a good job as the CE, while 27% held the opposite view. Meanwhile, the corresponding ratings of CS Henry Tang Ying-yen, FS John Tsang Chun-wah and SJ Wong Yan-lung were 55.7, 56.7 and 61.0 marks, and 43%, 47% and 61% would vote for their reappointment correspondingly. As for the Directors of Bureaux, results revealed that the top approval rate fell to Secretary for Security Ambrose Lee Siu-kwong, attaining 64%. Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung Kin-chung and Secretary for Development Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor, occupied the 2nd and 3rd ranks with respective support rates of 53% and 50%. Secretary for Education Michael Suen Ming-yeung, Secretary for Transport and Housing Eva Cheng Yu-wah and Secretary for Food and Health York Chow Yat-ngok shared the 4th rank as both gained 36% vote of confidence from the public. Secretary for the Civil Service Denise Yue Chung-yee and Secretary for Environment Edward Yau Tang-wah shared the 7th rank as both gained 33% vote of confidence from the public. Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan Ka-keung and Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing occupied the 9th and 10th ranks with respective support rates of 30% and 29%. Meanwhile, Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Stephen Lam Sui-lung and Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Rita Lau Ng Wai-lan occupied the 11th and 12th rank, achieving 28% and 22%. In other words, only Ambrose Lee Siu-kwong and Matthew Cheung Kin-chung scored approval rates of over 50% among all Directors of Bureaux. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Opinion Daily In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to "Opinion Daily" as soon as they are verified by POP. For the polling items covered in this press release, using the previous survey as a reference point for comparison, our "Opinion Daily" for this release starts on August 5, 2008, because the previous survey of some items was conducted from August 1 to 4, 2008 while this survey was conducted from February 2 to 4, 2009. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.
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| Commentary Note: The following commentary was written by Director of POP Robert Chung. Our latest survey shows that CE Donald Tsang's support rating has increased for four consecutive times, from around 50 marks registered in early December last year to around 55 marks, or about one grade. His net approval rate (or approval rate minus disapproval rate) has also increased from -2 percentage points to +3 percentage points. However, our biannual survey shows that only 30% of the people consider Donald Tsang doing a good job as CE, which is record low since he becomes CE. For the Secretaries of Departments, compared to a month ago, all popularity figures have increased. FS John Tsang records the biggest jump, as his support rating rises 3.5 marks and his approval rate surges 7 percentage points, obviously due to the publicity of his forthcoming Budget Speech. As for the Directors of Bureaux, compared to a month ago, only two officials have registered changes in approval rates beyond sampling errors. They include Secretary for Security Ambrose Lee whose approval rate increased by 8 percentage points, and Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan whose approval rate increased by 5 percentage points. Among all Secretaries and Directors, only Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Stephen Lam has negative popularity, meaning that his disapproval rate is higher than his approval rate. His net popularity now stands at -7 percentage points. According to the benchmarks set by us quite some time ago, no official now falls under the categories of "'ideal" performance. Ambrose Lee, Wong Yan-lung and Matthew Cheung can be labeled as "successful", Carrie Lam, John Tsang, Henry Tang, Donald Tsang, Michael Suen, York Chow, Tsang Tak-sing and Stephen Lam can be labeled as "mediocre", and Eva Cheng, Edward Yau, Denise Yue, Ceajer Chan and Rita Lau can be labeled as "inconspicuous". No official falls under the categories of "depressing" or "disastrous". As for the reasons affecting the popularity change of these officials, readers can make their own judgment using detailed records shown in our "Opinion Daily" feature page. The following table summarizes the grading of the principal officials for readers' easy reference:
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| | Abstract | Latest Figures | Opinion Daily | Commentary | Next Release (Tentative) | | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
