HKU POP SITE releases the latest ratings of the Top 10 Legislative CouncillorsBack

Press Release on February 3, 2009

Abstract

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong conducted a double stage survey on the ranking of Legislative Councillors in January, by means of random telephone surveys conducted by real interviewers. This second round of "top 10" survey after the formation of the new Legco shows that two of the five new faces in the last survey fail to pass the recognition benchmark this time, and their places are replaced by two legislators who also do not hold very high recognition rates. This seems to show that the popularity structure of the "top 10" list is still evolving. Compared to three months ago, there are both ups and downs in the popularity ratings of Legco members on the "top 10" list. Those with significant increases include Jasper Tsang and Regina Ip, while Leung Kwok-hung registers a significant drop. In terms of relative rankings, Audrey Eu continues to top the list, followed in the second place by Alan Leong who re-enters the list first time after October 2007, and in the third place by Andrew Cheng who enters the list for the first time since he became a Legco member in 1995. Fred Li and Tam Yiu-chung, who ranked second and sixth last time, have dropped out of the list due to their relatively low recognition rates. For all others on the list, their relative positions have changed within two places. The sampling errors of the ratings registered fall between +/-1.2 and 1.6 while the response rate of the rating survey is 77%.

Points to note:

* The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
* The sample size of the first stage naming survey is 1,015 successful interviews, not 1,015 x 70.2% response rate, while the sample size of the second stage rating survey is 1,011 successful interviews, not 1,011 x 76.5% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-1.6 at 95% confidence level" when quoting the rating figures. In view of the error margins, one decimal place can be used when quoting these rating figures.
* The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

Latest Figures

POP today releases on schedule via the "POP SITE" the latest popularity figures of the Top 10 Legislative Councillors. As a general practice, all figures have already been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in mid-2008. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:

Date of survey	Overall sample size	Response rate	Sampling error of percentages/ratings*
12-13/1/09 (First stage naming survey)	1,015	70.2%	+/-3%
19-21/1/09 (Second stage rating survey)	1,011	76.5%	+/-1.6

* Calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.

The research design of our "Top 10 Legislative Councillors" has been explained in detail under "Survey Method" in our corresponding web page. The top councillors listed in our latest survey were all those who obtained the highest unprompted mentions in our first stage naming survey conducted in mid-January. In that survey, respondents could name, unaided, up to 10 legislators whom they knew best. Wong Yuk-man, Leung Kwok-hung, Lau Kong-wah, Emily Lau and Audrey Eu were mentioned most frequently. Please refer to the relevant table for the rest of the list. Those 12 who were named most frequently then entered into the second stage rating survey. During the second stage rating survey conducted in late-January, respondents were asked to rate each legislator in turn using a 0-100 scale. 0 indicates absolutely no support, 100 indicates absolute support, and 50 means half-half. After calculation, the bottom 2 legislators in terms of recognition rate were dropped; the remaining 10 were then ranked according to their support ratings attained to become the top 10 Legislative Councillors. For easy reference, the POP Site has already displayed the results of all naming surveys conducted since the year 1998. Recent ratings of top 10 Legislative Councillors are summarized below:

Date of survey	16-18/1/08	16-18/4/08	9-10/7/08	22-24/10/08	19-21/1/09*	Latest change
Sample base	1,022	1,009	1,008	1,018	1,011	--
Overall response rate	66.7%	69.6%	69.5%	70.5%	76.5%	--
Audrey Eu	58.9 [**]	62.6[2]#	65.3[2]#	60.2[1]#	60.9[1] +/-1.2	+0.7
Alan Leong	--	--	--	--	59.0[2] +/-1.2	--
Andrew Cheng	--	--	--	--	56.8[3] +/-1.2	--
Lee Cheuk-yan	52.4 [5]#	53.3[6]	58.9[4]#	56.3[3]#	56.4[4] +/-1.2	+0.1
Regina Ip	Not a LC member then			53.5[5]	56.4[4] +/-1.2	+2.9#
Albert Ho	50.9 [6]#	--	--	55.5[4]	56.0[6] +/-1.2	+0.5
Emily Lau	45.5 [9]#	52.2[7]#	56.4[6]#	52.0[7]#	51.2[7] +/-1.4	-0.8
Jasper Tsang	49.7 [7]#	52.2[7]#	52.4[9]	45.4[8]#	51.2[7] +/-1.4	+5.8#
Wong Yuk-man	Not a LC member then			43.3[9]	42.1[9] +/-1.6	-1.2
Leung Kwok-hung	30.2 [10]#	35.9[10]#	36.6[10]	39.0[10]#	36.5[10] +/-1.6	-2.5#
Lau Kong-wah	--	--	--	47.5[**]	47.5[] +/-1.4**	--
Albert Chan	--	--	--	49.0[**]	45.2[] +/-1.6**	-3.8#
Fred Li	--	--	--	56.4[2]	--	--
Tam Yiu-chung	53.7 [**]	56.9[**]#	55.0[**]#	52.2[6]#	--	--
Rita Fan^	65.5 [1]#	68.7[1]#	70.5[1]#	--	--	--
Anson Chan^	55.1 [3]	58.5[3]#	59.7[3]	--	--	--
James Tien^	55.3 [2]	57.3[5]#	58.4[5]	--	--	--
Selina Chow^	52.6 [4]#	57.7[4]#	55.8[7]#	--	--	--
Martin Lee^	45.8 [8]#	50.9[9]#	55.2[8]#	--	--	--
Lee Wing-tat	--	--	56.1[**]	--	--	--
Chan Yuen-han^	--	60.7[**]	--	--	--	--
James To	--	53.1[**]	--	--	--	--

* Sampling errors calculated at "95% confidence level", meaning that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-1.6 at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
** Ratings with recognition rates not reaching top 10 in either stage of survey are not available.
[ ] Number in square brackets indicates rankings.
# Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.
^ Former Legislative Councillors

The latest survey conducted in late-January showed that Audrey Eu was the most popularly supported councillor attaining 60.9 marks while Alan Leong and Andrew Cheng ranked the 2nd and 3rd with 59.0 and 56.8 marks correspondingly. Lee Cheuk-yan and Regina Ip shared the 4th rank with the same score of 56.4 marks. The 6th rank fell to Albert Ho who scored 56.0 marks. Emily Lau and Jasper Tsang shared the 7th rank with the same score of 51.2 marks. The 9th and 10th ranks went to Wong Yuk-man and Leung Kwok-hung who attained 42.1 and 36.5 marks respectively. The mean score obtained by the top 5 councillors was 57.9 marks, while that for the top 10 was 52.7 marks. For this latest survey, Lau Kong-wah and Albert Chan obtained support ratings of 47.5 and 45.2 marks respectively, but they were dropped due to their relatively low recognition rates. The overall ratings ranked according to results obtained over the past 12 calendar months are tabulated as follows:

Date of survey	16-18/4/08	9-10/7/08	22-24/10/08	19-21/1/09	No. of times on top 10	Average rating*	Overall ranking**
Audrey Eu	62.6	65.3	60.2	60.9	4	62.3	1
Lee Cheuk-yan	53.3	58.9	56.3	56.4	4	56.2	2
Emily Lau	52.2	56.4	52.0	51.2	4	53.0	3
Jasper Tsang	52.2	52.4	45.4	51.2	4	50.3	4
Leung Kwok-hung	35.9	36.6	39.0	36.5	4	37.0	5
Rita Fan^	68.7	70.5	-	-	2	69.6	6
Anson Chan^	58.5	59.7	-	-	2	59.1	7
James Tien^	57.3	58.4	-	-	2	57.8	8
Selina Chow^	57.7	55.8	-	-	2	56.8	9
Albert Ho	-	-	55.5	56.0	2	55.8	10
Regina Ip	-	-	53.5	56.4	2	54.9	11
Martin Lee^	50.9	55.2	-	-	2	53.1	12
Wong Yuk-man	-	-	43.3	42.1	2	42.7	13
Alan Leong	-	-	-	59.0	1	59.0	14
Andrew Cheng	-	-	-	56.8	1	56.8	15
Fred Li	-	-	56.4	-	1	56.4	16
Tam Yiu-chung	-	-	52.2	-	1	52.2	17

* "Average rating" is the average of all ratings obtained by Legislative Councillors over the past 12 months.
** "Overall ranking" is first determined by their number of times on top 10, and then their average ratings.
^ Former Legislative Councillors

The overall rankings in the past 12 months showed that five Legislative Councillors have been on the list for four times. They are Audrey Eu in the top rank achieving an average rating of 62.3 marks, Lee Cheuk-yan, Emily Lau, Jasper Tsang and Leung Kwok-hung who ranked the 2nd to 5th and attained 56.2, 53.0, 50.3 and 37.0 marks correspondingly. Rita Fan, Anson Chan, James Tien, Selina Chow, Albert Ho, Regina Ip, Martin Lee and Wong Yuk-man have been on the list for two times and ranked 6th to 13th with 69.6, 59.1, 57.8, 56.8, 55.8, 54.9, 53.1 and 42.7 marks. Alan Leong, Andrew Cheng, Fred Li and Tam Yiu-chung have been on the list once and ranked 14th to 17th.

Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to provide readers with accurate information so that they can judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP since July 24 each day a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to the "Opinion Daily" feature page as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from October 22 to 24, 2008 while this survey was conducted from January 19 to 21, 2009. In between these two surveys, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

15/1/09	Chief Executive Donald Tsang Yam-kuen puts off the public consultation on electoral reforms for 2012 till the 4th quarter this year.
8/1/09	The government plans to relax the limits on teaching in English.
6/1/09	The Pamela Youde Nethersole Eastern Hospital loses the body of a dead baby.
5/1/09	Caritas Medical Centre submits an investigation report on the death of a man who collapsed at its doorsteps.
2/1/09	The government announces several modifications on the banning of idling engines.
30/12/08	A 2-month-old baby is infected with the H9N2 bird flu virus.
27/12/08	Workers' bonus protest delays dozens of flights.
24/12/08	Yuan will be used in transactions for companies in HK and Macau with trade partners in Guangdong and the Yangtze River Delta as part of a pilot project.
22/12/08	Hospital Authority apologizes for the failure to rescue a dying patient on the doorstep of Caritas Medical Centre.
21/12/08	Caritas Hospital defends clerk for the deadly delay.
20/12/08	Henry Tang leads shopping trip in bid to encourage public spending.
19/12/08	The Central Government will implement 14 measures to help the city's economy.
18/12/08	CSSA Scheme is being misapplied.
9/12/08	Bird flu outburst in a chicken farm in Yuen Long.
8/12/08	Hong Kong SAR government announces a massive rescue package.
3/12/08	Taxi strike against new fare structure blocks highway.
2/12/08	Newspapers report and discuss the issue of Hong Kong people stranded in Thailand.
1/12/08	The government arranges charter flights to pick up residents in Thailand.
18/11/08	The latest HK unemployment rate rises to 3.5%.
14/11/08	HK economy shrinks for a second quarter as global crisis bites.
12/11/08	The Legislative Council will investigate the Lehman Brothers minibonds affair.
10/11/08	HKSAR Government announces a HK$10 billion loans special scheme for small and medium-sized enterprises.
24/10/08	Chief Executive calls back his decision on the means test mechanism to Old Age Allowance.

Commentary

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "Our second round of 'top 10' survey after the formation of the new Legco shows that two of the five new faces in our last survey fail to pass the recognition benchmark this time, and their places are replaced by two legislators who also do not hold very high recognition rates. This seems to show that the popularity structure of the 'top 10' list is still evolving. Compared to three months ago, there are both ups and downs in the popularity ratings of Legco members on the 'top 10' list. Those with significant increases include Jasper Tsang and Regina Ip, while Leung Kwok-hung registers a significant drop. In terms of relative rankings, Audrey Eu continues to top the list, followed in the second place by Alan Leong who re-enters the list first time after October 2007, and in the third place by Andrew Cheng who enters the list for the first time since he became a Legco member in 1995. Fred Li and Tam Yiu-chung, who ranked second and sixth last time, have dropped out of the list due to their relatively low recognition rates. For all others on the list, their relative positions have changed within two places. It should be noted, however, that our list of 'top 10' only includes Legco members who are best known to the public, ranked according to their support ratings. Some of the other 50 councillors may well have very high or low support ratings, but because they are not the most well-known councillors, they do not appear on the 'top 10' list by design. We leave it for our readers to figure out the reasons for the ups and downs of these popularity ratings using detailed records shown in our 'Opinion Daily' feature page."

Next Release (Tentative)

February 10, 2009 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Popularity of CE, Secretaries and Directors