HKU POP SITE releases the latest popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang and the HKSAR GovernmentBack

Press Release on January 29, 2009

Abstract

The Public Opinion Programme at the University of Hong Kong interviewed 1,011 Hong Kong people between 19 and 21 January by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. The survey finds that the support rating of CE Donald Tsang continues to recover gradually, away from its record low registered in early December last year. Compared to two weeks ago, however, the popularity figures of Donald Tsang have only changed within sampling errors, meaning that they are just very small adjustments. As for the popularity of the SAR Government, although people's satisfaction rate has significantly increased by 4 percentage points compared to a month ago, it is still 9 percentage points lower than the dissatisfaction rate, meaning negative popularity. The sampling error of all percentages is below +/- 3 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figure is below +/-1.3 marks. The response rate of the survey is 77%.

Points to note:

* The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
* The sample size of this survey is 1,011 successful interviews, not 1,011 x 76.5% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
* The maximum sampling error of all percentages is below +/-3 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figure is below +/-1.3 marks. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error below +/-3% at 95% confidence level for percentage figures, and +/-1.3 for rating figure".
* When quoting percentages of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used, in order to match the precision level of the figures.
* The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

Latest Figures

POP today releases on schedule via the "POP SITE" the latest popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang and the HKSAR Government. As a general practice, all figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in mid-2008. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:

Date of survey	Overall sample size	Response rate	Sampling error of percentages*
19-21/1/2009	1,011	76.5%	+/-3%

* Calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Sampling errors of ratings are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.

Recent popularity figures of Donald Tsang and people's satisfaction of the overall performance of the HKSAR Government are summarized as follows:

Date of survey	18-24/11/08	2-8/12/08	16-18/12/08	2-6/1/09	19-21/1/2009*	Latest Change
Sample base	1,006	1,004	1,005	1,011	1,011	--
Overall response rate	71.3%	67.6%	71.7%	67.3%	76.5%	--
Rating of CE Donald Tsang	54.5	50.2#	52.0#	52.9	53.3 +/-1.3	+0.4
Vote of confidence in CE Donald Tsang	46%	41%#	41%	41%	40% +/-3%	-1%
Vote of no confidence in CE Donald Tsang	34%#	43%#	40%	41%	39% +/-3%	-2%
Satisfaction rate of SARG performance**	31%#	--	23%#	--	27% +/-3%	+4%#
Dissatisfaction rate of SARG performance**	29%	--	38%#	--	36% +/-3%	-2%

* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.3, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
** Collapsed from a 5-point scale.
# Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

The latest survey conducted in mid-January showed that, CE Donald Tsang scored 53.3 marks, and 40% supported him as the Chief Executive while another 39% opposed. Regarding people's appraisal of the overall performance of the HKSAR Government, the latest figures revealed that 27% were satisfied, whereas 36% were dissatisfied.

Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to "Opinion Daily" as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey of some items was conducted from December 16 to 18, 2008 while this survey was conducted from January 19 to 21, 2009. In between these two surveys, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

15/1/09	Chief Executive Donald Tsang Yam-kuen puts off the public consultation on electoral reforms for 2012 till the 4th quarter this year.
9/1/09	The Monetary Authority defended the city's financial regulatory system.
8/1/09	The government plans to relax the limits on teaching in English.
6/1/09	The Pamela Youde Nethersole Eastern Hospital loses the body of a dead baby.
5/1/09	Caritas Medical Centre submits an investigation report on the death of a man who collapsed at its doorsteps.
2/1/09	The government announces several modifications on the banning of idling engines.
31/12/08	Many newspapers report and discuss the review and forecast on Hong Kong's development.
30/12/08	1) A 2-month-old baby is infected with the H9N2 bird flu virus. 2) Hong Kong stock exchange delays extending a ban on directors selling shares before earnings announcements.
29/12/08	There is a widespread opposition to extend listed company directors blackout period.
27/12/08	Workers' bonus protest delays dozens of flights.
24/12/08	1) People enjoy Christmas during tough time. 2) Yuan will be used in transactions for companies in HK and Macau with trade partners in Guangdong and the Yangtze River Delta as part of a pilot project.
22/12/08	Hospital Authority apologizes for the failure to rescue a dying patient on the doorstep of Caritas Medical Centre.
21/12/08	Caritas Hospital defends clerk for the deadly delay.
20/12/08	Henry Tang leads shopping trip in bid to encourage public spending.
19/12/08	The Central Government will implement 14 measures to help the city's economy.
18/12/08	CSSA Scheme is being misapplied.
17/12/08	Federal Reserve cut benchmark interest rate, HK banks refuse to follow.

Commentary

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "Our latest survey shows that the support rating of CE Donald Tsang continues to recover gradually, away from its record low registered in early December last year. Compared to two weeks ago, however, the popularity figures of Donald Tsang have only changed within sampling errors, meaning that they are just very small adjustments. As for the popularity of the SAR Government, although people's satisfaction rate has significantly increased by 4 percentage points compared to a month ago, it is still 9 percentage points lower than the dissatisfaction rate, meaning negative popularity. As for the reasons affecting the ups and downs of these figures, we leave it to our readers to form their own judgment using detailed records displayed in our 'Opinion Daily'."

Next Release (Tentative)

February 3, 2009 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Ratings of Top 10 Legislative Councillors