HKU POP SITE releases 6 latest trust and confidence indicatorsBack

Press Release on January 6, 2009

| Abstract | Latest Figures | Opinion Daily | Commentary | Next Release (Tentative) |
| Detailed Findings (People's Trust in the HKSAR Government/People's Trust in the Taiwan Government) |
| Detailed Findings (People's Trust in the Beijing Central Government) |
| Detailed Findings (People's Confidence in HK's Future/People's Confidence in China's Future) |
| Detailed Findings (People's Confidence in "One Country, Two Systems") |

Abstract

POP interviewed 1,022 Hong Kong people between 23 and 29 December by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. Our survey finds that compared to two months ago, there was not much change in people's trust in the local, central and Taiwan governments, as all variations are within sampling errors. People's trust in the central and local governments remains positive, while their trust in the Taiwan government remains negative. People's trust in the central government is now 14 percentage points higher than that of the local government, this is another record registered since the end of 2003. As for people's confidence in the future, after dropping two months ago to a record low since early 2005, people's confidence in the future of Hong Kong has slightly recovered to 69%. People's confidence in the future of China, however, has surged 7 percentage points to 91%, a record high since this survey item began in 1997. People's confidence in "one country, two systems" has also gone up significantly by 4 percentage points to reach 73%. The sampling error of all percentages is below +/-2 to 3 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the response rate of the survey is 73%.

Points to note:

* The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
* The sample size of this survey is 1,022 successful interviews, not 1,022 x 72.8% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
* The maximum sampling error of all percentages is below +/-2 to 3 percentage points at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level".
* When quoting percentages of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places in order to match the precision level of the figures.
* The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

Latest Figures

POP today releases on schedule via the POP Site the latest findings on people's trust in the HKSAR, Beijing Central and Taiwan Governments, their confidence in Hong Kong's future, China's future and "one country, two systems". As a general practice, all figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in mid-2008. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:

Date of survey	Overall sample size	Response rate	Sampling error of percentages*
23-29/12/2008	1,022	72.8%	+/-3%

* Calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.

Recent popularity figures of SAR, Central and Taiwan Governments, and people's confidence in the future are summarized below:

Date of survey	23-25/4/08	18-20/6/08	25-26/8/08	27-29/10/08	23-29/12/08*	Latest Change
Sample base	1,029	1,003	1,065	1,015	1,022	--
Overall response rate	68.1%	70.3%	70.3%	70.3%	72.8%	--
Trust in HKSAR Government**	60%	62%	45%	41%	42% +/-3%	+1%
Distrust in HKSAR Government**	7%	12%	16%	21%	19% +/-2%	-2%
Trust in Beijing Government**	55%	58%	49%	54%	56% +/-3%	+2%
Distrust in Beijing Government**	13%	12%	14%	15%	14% +/-2%	-1%
Trust in Taiwan Government**	19%	23%	12%	15%	14% +/-2%	-1%
Distrust in Taiwan Government**	29%	20%	40%	46%	45% +/-3%	-1%
Confidence in HK's future	80%	73%	74%	67%	69% +/-3%	+2%
No-confidence in HK's future	15%	19%	20%	25%	24% +/-3%	-1%
Confidence in China's future	88%	88%	89%	84%	91% +/-2%	+7%#
No-confidence in China's future	8%	8%	7%	11%	6% +/-2%	-5%#
Confidence in "one country, two systems"	77%	71%	74%	69%	73% +/-3%	+4%#
No-confidence in "one country, two systems"	17%	21%	20%	25%	21% +/-3%	-4%#

* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
** Collapsed from a 5-point scale.
# Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

Survey conducted in late-December revealed that 42% of the respondents trusted the HKSAR Government, 56% trusted the Beijing Central Government, and 14% trusted the Taiwan Government. On the other hand, 69% of the respondents had confidence in Hong Kong's future and 91% had confidence in China's future, while 73% of the respondents were confident in "one country, two systems".

Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis. Our purpose is to provide readers with accurate information so that they can judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. When "Opinion Daily" began to operate on January 17, 2007, it only contained significant events and popularity figures of the Chief Executive over the past few months. As of today, it contains a chronology of events and many poll figures registered since January 1, 2006. Readers can now check on the results of 9 different polling items compiled by POP, including the popularity of the Chief Executive, the HKSAR government, and the Secretaries of Departments under the accountability system. In near future, the content of "Opinion Daily" will continue to expand, in order to promote the science of opinion polling.

In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP since July 24 each day a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to the "Opinion Daily" feature page as soon as they are verified by POP, in order to provide readers with swifter and more accurate information.

In August 2007, POP began to include in its regular press releases a list of significant events which happened in between two surveys, so that readers can make their own judgment on whether these events have any effect on the ups and downs of the polling figures. This press release is no exception.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from October 27 to 29, 2008 while this survey was conducted from December 23 to 29, 2008. In between these two surveys, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

26/12/08	Chinese naval fleet sets sail for anti-piracy duty off Somalia.
24/12/08	1) People enjoy Christmas during tough time. 2) Yuan will be used in transactions for companies in HK and Macau with trade partners in Guangdong and the Yangtze River Delta as part of a pilot project.
22/12/08	Hospital Authority apologizes for the failure to rescue a dying patient on the doorstep of Caritas Medical Centre.
21/12/08	1) Caritas Hospital defends clerk for the deadly delay. 2) Beijing helps Taipei tackle financial crisis.
20/12/08	Henry Tang leads shopping trip in bid to encourage public spending.
19/12/08	The Central Government will implement 14 measures to help the city's economy.
18/12/08	1) CSSA Scheme is being misapplied. 2) The Communist Party marks the 30th anniversary of the launch of economic reforms.
17/12/08	Federal Reserve cut benchmark interest rate, HK banks refuse to follow.
12/12/08	Chen Shui-bien charged with corruption facing a maximum sentence of life imprisonment.
10/12/08	The three-day Central Economic Work Conference ends in Beijing.
8/12/08	Hong Kong SAR government announces a massive rescue package.
2/12/08	1) The first Michelin Guide on Hong Kong and Macau is released. 2) Newspapers report and discuss the issue of Hong Kong people stranded in Thailand.
1/12/08	The government arranges charter flights to pick up residents in Thailand.
26/11/08	The mainland's central bank cuts the benchmark interest rate by 1.08 percentage points.
24/11/08	Citigroup receives US$306 billion from US government.
18/11/08	The latest HK unemployment rate rises to 3.5%.
14/11/08	HK economy shrinks for a second quarter as global crisis bites.
12/11/08	The Legislative Council will investigate the Lehman Brothers minibonds affair.
11/11/08	Former Taiwanese president Chen Shui-bian is in custody for money-laundering.
10/11/08	HKSAR Government announces a HK$10 billion loans special scheme for small and medium-sized enterprises.
9/11/08	Mainland pledges a 4 trillion yuan stimulus package to boost economy.
6/11/08	The meeting between Taiwan's leader Ma Ying-jeou and Chen Yunlin lasts for 8 minutes.
4/11/08	ARATS and SEF officials sign four agreements for cross-strait co-operation.
3/11/08	ARATS and SEF officials start negotiations for further co-operation across the straits.
2/11/08	Chen Yunlin visits Taiwan.
29/10/08	Premier Wen Jiabao issued five pledges to help Hong Kong ride out the global financial storm.

Commentary

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "Compared to two months ago, there was not much change in people's trust in the local, central and Taiwan governments, as all variations are within sampling errors. People's trust in the central and local governments remains positive, while their trust in the Taiwan government remains negative. People's trust in the central government is now 14 percentage points higher than that of the local government, this is another record registered since the end of 2003. As for people's confidence in the future, after dropping two months ago to a record low since early 2005, people's confidence in the future of Hong Kong has slightly recovered to 69%. People's confidence in the future of China, however, has surged 7 percentage points to 91%, a record high since this survey item began in 1997. People's confidence in 'one country, two systems' has also gone up significantly by 4 percentage points to reach 73%. As for the reasons affecting the ups and downs of our opinion figures, readers are welcome to make their own judgment using the detailed records displayed in our 'Opinion Daily'."

Next Release (Tentative)

January 8, 2009 (Thursday) 1pm to 2pm: People's appraisal of society's current conditions
January 13, 2009 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Popularity of the CE and principal officials