HKU POP SITE releases the latest figures of the 2008 year-end and 2009 forecast surveyBack

Press Release on December 31, 2008

Abstract

The Public Opinion Programme at the University of Hong Kong interviewed 1,005 Hong Kong people between 16-18 December by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. The survey registers a number of reversals never seen in previous year-end surveys since 1992. Compared to a year ago, those satisfied with Hong Kong's development in the year past plunges 35 percentage points from its record high last year to 29%, although dissatisfaction rate is still lower than those of 1998, 1999, 2001, 2002 and 2003. Looking ahead, with the downturn of the economy, the 31 percentage-point surge in people's expectation of the government to tackling economic problems first seems quite natural. However, the percentage of those who expect Hong Kong's economy to get worse in the year ahead has dramatically shot up 52 percentage points, to reach a record high of 64%. Likewise, assessment of personal development in the year ahead has also turned negative for the first time. According to Programme Director Robert Chung, this means people are not optimistic about the future. The good news is that still more than half said they lived a happy life in the year past, just a four-year low. This probably reflects Hong Kong people's persistent endurance. As for people's new year wishes, without specific prompting, about half made a wish on a society-related issue, mainly about the economy, only about 30% made a wish on personal matters, especially for health - a good sign of social awareness. The sample error of the survey is between +/-1 to +/-3 percentage points at 95% confidence level, response rate being 72%.

Points to note:

* The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
* The sample size of this survey is 1,005 successful interviews, not 1,005 x 71.7% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
* The maximum sampling error of all percentages is between +/-1 to 3 percentage points at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level".
* When quoting percentages of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used, in order to match the precision level of the figures.
* The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

Latest Figures

POP today releases on schedule via the "POP SITE" the latest findings of the 2008 review and 2009 forecast survey. As a general practice, all figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in mid-2008. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:

Date of survey	Sample base	Overall response rate	Sampling error of percentages*
16-18/12/08	1,005	71.7%	+/-3%

* Calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Questions using only sub-samples would have bigger sample error. Sampling errors of ratings are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.

Herewith the figures collected at the year-end of 2008 compared with similar figures obtained in recent years:

Date of survey	15-19/12/05	18-20/12/06	19-24/12/07	16-18/12/08*	Latest change
Sample base	1,016	1,016	1,019	1,005	--
Overall response rate	63.8%	64.1%	66.2%	71.7%	--
Satisfied with HK's development for the year past**	60%	57%	64%	29% +/-3%	-35%#
Dissatisfied with HK's development for the year past**	12%	9%	10%	38% +/-3%	+28%#
Expected HK's development to be better next year	58%	58%	57%	15% +/-2%	-42%#
Expected HK's development to be worse next year	11%	7%	12%	64% +/-3%	+52%#
Perceived economy to be the most important problem to be tackled by the government next year	45%	37%	36%	67% +/-3%	+31%#
Perceived employment to be the most important problem to be tackled by the government next year	--	--	--	7% +/-2%	--
Perceived welfare to be the most important problem to be tackled by the government next year	4%	8%	13%	4% +/-1%	-9%#
Perceived constitutional development to be the most important problem to be tackled by the government next year	17%	10%	11%	2% +/-1%	-9%#
Wished HK becomes a prosperous society	37%	35%	31%	36% +/-3%	+5%#
Wished HK becomes a clean society	4%	7%	--	--	--
Wished HK becomes a corruption-free society^	--	--	22%	23% +/-3%	+1%
Wished HK becomes a fair society	29%	31%	21%	20% +/-3%	-1%
Respondents who were happy for the year past**	61%	57%	57%	52% +/-3%	-5%#
Respondents who were unhappy for the year past**	11%	12%	10%	17% +/-2%	+7%#
Expected personal development to become better next year	53%	48%	46%	27% +/-3%	-19%#
Expected personal development to become worse next year	7%	8%	11%	31% +/-3%	+20%#
New year wishes: Social economy-related	23%	24%	24%	36% +/-3%	+12%#
New year wishes: Personal health	14%	19%	15%	13% +/-2%	-2%
New year wishes: Personal career or studies	11%	11%	12%	10% +/-2%	-2%
New year wishes: Social livelihood-related	4%	10%	8%	7% +/-2%	-1%
No special wish	12%	10%	11%	10% +/-2%	-1%

* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
** Collapsed from a 5-point scale.
^ The expression "clean society" was used in 2006 and before. In 2007, it was changed to "corruption-free society" to highlight the original meaning of the question.
# Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

Looking back at the year past, 29% said they were satisfied with Hong Kong's development, 38% were dissatisfied. Meanwhile, 15% expected Hong Kong's development in general to become "better" next year, 64% said it would be worse. Besides, 67% considered "economy" to be the most important problem that the government should tackle next year, 7%, 4% and 2% respectively thought "employment", "welfare" and "constitutional development" was the most pressing problem. If one had to choose between a "prosperous", "free", "fair", "welfare", and "corruption-free" society, 36% of the respondents would wish Hong Kong to become a "prosperous" society, while 23% and 20% respectively opted for a "corruption-free" and "fair" society.

Findings also showed that 52% of the respondents said they were happy in the year past, 17% were not. As for the coming year, 27% believed their personal development would become better, 31% thought they would worse off. With respect to people's new year wishes, 36% were social economy-related, 13% were related to personal health, 10% were related to personal career or studies, and 7% were related to social livelihood. Another 10% did not make any wish.

Commentary

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "Our lastest survey registered a number of reversals never seen in previous year-end surveys which we began in 1992. Compared to a year ago, those satisfied with Hong Kong's development in the year past plunges 35 percentage points from its record high last year to 29%, although dissatisfaction rate is still lower than those of 1998, 1999, 2001, 2002 and 2003. Looking ahead, with the downturn of the economy, the 31 percentage-point surge in people's expectation of the government to tackling economic problems first seems quite natural. However, the percentage of those who expect Hong Kong's economy to get worse in the year ahead has dramatically shot up 52 percentage points, to reach a record high of 64%. Likewise, assessment of personal development in the year ahead has also turned negative for the first time, meaning that people are not optimistic about the future. The good news is, still more than half said they lived a happy life in the year past, just a four-year low. This probably reflects Hong Kong people's persistent endurance. As for people's new year wishes, without specific prompting, about half made a wish on a society-related issue, mainly about the economy, only about 30% made a wish on personal matters, especially for health - a good sign of social awareness."

News about POP

POP's normal practice is to release the results of our regular surveys every Tuesday afternoon via our POP Site, except during public holidays, each time with a forecast of the items to be released in the next 7 days. According to schedule, our next release of regular survey findings will be January 6, 2009, Tuesday, between 1pm and 2pm, when the latest findings of 6 trust and confidence indicators will be released.

POP will also follow the rhythm of the WorldPublicOpinion.org (WPO) to globally release the Chinese versions of WPO's press releases regularly, via our "World Public Opinion Platform" accessible through our POP Site and the "Hong Kong People's Opinion Platform" at http://www.hkpop.hk.

Our general practice is to answer all questions on the research design of the surveys published in the POP Site as soon as we receive them, but we will not further comment on the findings. We welcome questions for follow-up purpose, please email them to us at <[email protected]>. We will keep such an arrangement under constant review, suggestions most welcome. Please note that everything carried in the POP Site does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of POP, is responsible for everything posted herewith, except for column articles which represent the stand of their authors.

Starting from January 2006, we have included in our press release a small educational section for the purpose of general civic education, the content of which is usually based on previous questions and comments we have received from the public. The subject of our education section today is "About HKUPOP".

About HKUPOP

Year-end review and forecast surveys

It is a common practice that at the end of a year, people would like to look back at their achievement in the year past, and then look forward to what would happen in the year to come. Shortly after HKUPOP was established, we began to conduct year-end surveys. Besides mapping people's general appraisal of the year past, we also ask people for their expectations on, and forecast of, their own development in the year ahead, as well as that of the society and that of the government. We have explained the development of the survey in our press releases of December 29, 2006 and December 31, 2007. Today we release it again, so that readers can refresh such development.

In December 1992, we began to conduct year-end surveys. At first, we only asked questions on people's forecast of society's development in the year ahead, and their expectations on government policies. From the second year onwards, we gradually expanded our survey to cover people's expectation of their own development, their expectation of society's development, and their general satisfaction with development in the year past.

The questionnaire we now use comprises 7 opinion questions, namely: "In general, are you satisfied with the development of Hong Kong in the year xxxx?", "Do you think the development of Hong Kong in the year xxxx +1 will be better or worse?", "What do you think is the most important problem that the HKSAR government should tackle in the year xxxx +1?", "What kind of society would you most like Hong Kong to become: a prosperous, free, fair, welfare or corruption-free society?", "Were you happy in the year xxxx?", "Do you have any new year wish?" and "Do you think your personal development will become better or worse in the year xxxx +1?".

Regarding sample size, before 2000, the sample size of surveys was set at slightly over 500. Since 2000, the sample size was increased to at least 1,000.

The findings from our "year-end review and forecast surveys" conducted on or before 2000 were released through our newsletter POP Express. After our HKU POP Site was established, the findings are released online, while all previous findings published in our POP Express have also uploaded on-line in various formats.